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No ceiling. Race has not filled the last few years so mark is probably not too relevant except that because there is no ceiling, if something really highly rated headed the weights the new rule for all handicaps is you can’t run if you are 15lbs out of the weights. Given the champion hurdle is desperate this year I cant see that scenario happening as anything north of 150 probably gives the Champion Hurdle a go instead. Secret Squirrell probably fine if this is the plan imo
Just seen the entries on RP and by my reckoning 8 are higher priority than CH and he is one of 12 who are flat unraced so could still ne problems with 20 of the entries meeting one of the criteria
Incidentally if I’m reading that correct and Willie wants a run Daddy Long Legs is higher up the order than CH because hes had 2 flat runs and a top 4 finish.
I dont even know what a good outcome would be for CH if he runs at Southwell. How on earth do you assess the merits of the run and then apply that to a completely different race at the festival?
26 entries as of 9am this morning according to the Racing Post (doesnt close until noon today). There could be two divs maybe but it splits the pot up and I’m going out on a limb here to say the prize money is the reason CH is going to Southwell and not some other similar AW race worth 5K. Theres no world where CH gets ballotted out is there lol. Can see a few connections kicking off about this and justifiably so imo.
Had a bit more time than I realised but didn’t want to edit the previous post.
Turners
Shuttle Diplomacy 25/1 EW NRNB general
Act Of Innocence 12/1 Win NRNB William HillI think that is me done now hopefully! Roll on March.
I also have no idea what runs in the Albert Bartlett vs the Turners, very tricky so focusing on those at decent prices NRNB.
Albert Barteltt
Kings Bucks 50/1 EW bet365 NRNB
Jalon Doudaries 50/1 EW bet365 NRNBTurners I’ll have a look at later on hopefully and get those to you.
Triumph:
Selma de Vary 8/1 win bet365Brown Advisory:
The Big Westerner 5/1 win general
Wendigo 7/1 win general – there is some 8/1 with betmgm and virginbet if these count but not sure. If not 7/1 is fine. ThanksWillie’s a genius but he’s very deluded if he thinks Galopin is winning another Gold Cup. He’s barely beaten Firefox home today. Must be at least a stone below what he was showing 12 months ago when he wasn’t good enough then either
Is it possible that either last years Gold Cup was just not very good and we got overexcited by it or they both just ended each other? Galopin is miles off it this season too. I think todays outcome is great for the Ryanair and Gold Cup though because surely Gaelic and F2F go for Gold now which opens up the Ryanair albeit making it a not great race and I can see a bumper field for the Gold Cup too. I mean who would even go off favourite if neither of these two today run and go for the Ryanair? Nobody else has any form this season.
I said penalty kick earlier but I forgot about Wodhooh. She won’t be much easier to beat in the Mares than beating the main protagonists in this who are also mostly mares.
I don’t know what they’ll do but Willie doesnt have anything better here and the front of this market is still not to be feared even after todays defeat for Lossiemouth. They are all beatable, no superstar and it could be a bumper sized field here. Just depends on if they want the mares penalty kick again
I agree difficult to be confident. Would rather sit and see what its doing on the day (the ground) even if missing a few points. Marine ran ok and its only a prep for him but didnt look to enjoy it today to me, didnt travel with his usual zest.
Marine will also be opposable if the ground is on the testing side come March and that is a big unknown. Couldnt be touching either of them at this stage
If Kargese does win at the DRF against Romeo is it a straightforward decision for Paul Townend? I cant see her staying the mares chase trip so presumably this is her only option. Not talking about ability here but preparation. One run before a grade 1 festival novice chase is not ideal at all
