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I’ve taken the stand out 20/1 about Melon for this. Still think he’ll have a big say come March. Beaten yesterday but giving weight away to the younger horse. Faster pace in an Arkle will be right up his street. Banging EW bet
Still plenty of time for a real star to turn up between now and March, but I’m starting to think that Thomas Darby could run a big race in this. Beat today’s winner fair and square over course and distance in October. Not sure Ascot or Kempton suited him, but he ran creditably. He’s best priced 33/1, which I find very surprising.
OLAS
I’m very sweet on Sharjah Jack. The way he moved to the last before coming down was very impressive. The fact Mullins has only entered him in the 2 mile race next weekend suggests to me that the horse is an out n out 2 miler. Getabird is entered in the same race and the 2 mile 6f, surely the Ballymore is favourite for him.
I’m rather keen to see Sao make his British debut. Has already beaten We Have A Dream in France. Was double entered the other weekend but didn’t get a run. PN probably waiting for some nicer ground.
^^^ Knew I’d forgotten another one of his – West Approach, arguably his best chance of the lot in this race.
Colin Tizzard is not making life easy predicting the correct races for his novice chasers, two of which I really like. He’s quoted on separate occasions that Elegant Escape, Finians Oscar AND Sizing Tennessee are likely RSA horses – I just don’t see it.
I’m most sweet on Elegant Escape but for the 4 mile race, I think its perfect for him and I cannot believe two books still go 20/1. I shall keep helping myself.
Finians Oscar was a disaster for me last year having all the fancy prices for the Neptune. I thought he looked beat on his first start and was lucky, 2 miles is never his trip and possibly turned out too soon at Ascot. Fans of this horse can take reassurance his best performance was at Cheltenham over his correct trip. He’d get found out in an RSA and just hope CT see’s sense.
Which leaves Sizing Tennessee. I’m least sweet on him. However, he’s an improving horse and if his jumping continues to improve I’ve seen worse 25/1 bets. How many 10 year olds have won this though?
That’s where I’d aim them for, even if it is the pocket talking.
Thought MWTT’s race was very encouraging and wouldn’t write him off quite yet for the Arkle. Easy to forget that was only his 6th start. Proper horse in time I reckon. Bit of ease in the ground will help too.
Would get 2 miles standing on his head. Send him over hurdles and straight for The Champion in March!
Well done THM, cracking effort. To finish 4 seasons in a row in a healthy profit is some going, you certainly know the Irish jumps game inside out.
Out of interest, do you have any AP bets that you will be rolling over into next years thread (if you decide to do another that is)? AND, who are you most looking forward to following next season….
Enjoy the summer break and look forward to reading you updates when things kick off again in the Autumn.
Cheers, OLAS
Was at The Stranglers gig in Brighton on Thursday evening, put on quite a show them boys! Lets just hope The Tent puts up a similar showing tomorrow mate. Its twitchy bum time now and time for the horse to do the business, I’m as confident now as I was 55 weeks ago!
Good luck for the week Gord, enjoy!
Wishing you a late Happy New Year Gord!
Trust that you are well? I’ve been checking in with a keen eye over past few months, however, having spent the early part of the National Hunt season on the other side of the world I have been somewhat out of the loop and haven’t really had the time to contribute.
So first things first, best of luck with the third episode of the Cheltenham Wagers Thread, I’m pretty sure that you’ll be assembling a strong hand to play with at the festival once again.
More importantly, between us we obviously have a huge interest in a certain horse going for the Champion Hurdle this year. Two runs into the season, a potential run before the festival next month, are things going to plan in your opinion? I see that he has drifted out to 4/1 this week, not that a small drift in the market concerns me and I expect further movement this weekend.
Apart form the Tent my AP’ing has been somewhat non existent this year because of my trip down under, however, I am interested in the following and I’m hovering over the bet button as we speak, always interested to get your thoughts:-
Arkle – Rock On Ruby (12/1) – Missed the 14/1 boat last week. Am I missing something with this horse, he appears to be slipping completely under the radar. My opinion is that the Arkle doesn’t exactly look ‘top class’ this year and Ruby’s form at Cheltenham speaks for itself.
Neptune – Apache Stronghold (16/1) Bit of a stab this, but caught his last race in Ireland and was visually very impressive. Future chaser for sure but the form of that race seems reasonable and I’m not convinced about Briar Hill (agree that Faugheen will take the Albert Bartlett route).
Mossey Joe – Foxhunters (10/1) – Haven’t heard much about this horse since the spring, however, IMO, should he take his chance this lad is NAP material. Anybody have any news?
Lastly, I see that you have put up Tiger Cliff for the Supreme. I’m looking forward to his debut, any idea when this is being lined up for?
Cheers OLAS
You know me fella – keep me head down during the summer months.
It would appear that the result has been overturned. However, Bet365 initially paid out and that was quickly withdrawn! Not sure whether they will block any transfers out of the account – we shall see
Either way, she was very game in ‘defeat’. Certainly one to keep an eye on when she eventually see’s a hurdle.
Exciting times ahead – I love this time of year! Trouble is I’m out in Oz during the whole of December for the cricket so will be well out of the loop with all things jumps….
Hello mate.
Have you checked the racing at Punchestown this afternoon? There is a mare called Elsie that runs in the 4:15 that really appeals. I actually thought she’d be a lot shorter than she is this morning (9/2) so am pleasantly surprised! She has form in the book with Champagne Fever and Don Consack, course form and the benefit of a run under her belt. Certain bet this.
Do you know much about her opponents today?
OLAS
Morning Gord – not long now until the proper jumps stuff kicks off! As it goes, a few talented names are starting to make an appearance already, generally those that like the ground a bit firmer. There’s a nice little Novice Chase up at Bangor today where Dursey Sound makes his debut over fences. He’s a horse I had my eye on for one of the handicap hurdles Cheltenham last year but never materialised. They go 9/4 this morning about this horse who should be head and shoulders above these…..anyone getting stuck in??? An early season gift in my eye
I am looking forward to My Tent Or Yours cruising through the small-field trials, being hyped into odds-on favouritism for the Champion and then dogging it yet again in March.
I’ll be adding to the MTOY lay fund every month!
I’m adding to the Back fund myself TYF,if he gets to Cheltenham in March he’s the biggest certainty of the festival.He’s only just come back in and he’s a different horse to the one who finished his season in April,if ‘Sprinter Sacre’ is a Bugatti Veyron then MTOY is a Bentley Continental GT Speed. On good ground he’ll hack round granted a better gallop than last year,it wasn’t the soft ground that beat him this year it was the gallop,they just never went quick enough for him in the ‘Supreme’.TAPK sitting on a 33/1 voucher and its already burning a hole in my pocket.He’ll do it for ‘Darlan’!
When and where did you get 33/1??
Annie power 20/1 is the pick for me, an absolute machine of a mare…Pointer, those with the credentials to spot a good’un picked up the big prices prior to MTOY hosing up in one of the seasons hottest handicaps – The Befair. Honestly, if he gets there in one piece they wont see which way he goes!
Someone on here even managed to bag 66’s….
Evening chaps.
Rarely punt on the flat but there’s a 2 year old called Riverboat Springs that runs at Haydock tomorrow. To my eye he’s crying out for this extended trip. I’ve just grabbed the 6/1 with bet365 and I’m saying he won’t be far away.
Thoughts?!
Not sure how Big Phil can be 4 times the price of Woods
These are my 5 for the week. Good luck.Mickelson 16/1
Stenson 25/1
Snedecker 30/1
Day 50/1
Els 90/1I take it you didn’t turn into the golf last weekend Pants? For the record he pretty much had the event wrapped up after 27 holes!
Woods is in fine form, majestic actually, and I make him more like a 2/1 chance. The only thing that can stop him is if his emotions get on top, but this is Tiger Woods mate.
He’ll win this weekend and win well – mark my words.
We’ll look back like fools come the end of the year thinking ‘Rory bleeding who?’
Woods always wins at Firestone, that was his 8th win there, Oak Hill is a completely different set up, he won’t get away with his wayward driving here like he did last week.
He’s won seven events in the last tournament before a Major since 2008 and failed to follow up the next week in all seven so don’t get too carried away with his recent form.
4/1 is frankly ridiculous compared to Mickelson at 16/1 who is having an outstanding season and has won 4 Majors since Tiger last won one.
I’m sorry mate, but most of what you’ve just said is complete and utter cobblers.
Yes, Firestone is a different set up to Oak Hill but Tiger has won on all types of courses, more than anyone actually, so why would this one in particular not favour him?
Major Championships are meant to be more difficult and with a premium for accuracy off the tee, that’s genuinely why the players opt to use 3 Woods, 5 Woods and Irons to keep it in play. To my mind, Tiger hits those clubs as well as anyone. You must enjoy his ‘stinger’ shot right??!
Your argument is even more floored given that Tiger was ranked 9th in Driving Accuracy last week where he was bombing driver after driver out there. Lefty was towards the bottom of those stats last week.
In terms of Major Championships won, you claim Phil has won four since Tiger won at Torrey Pines in 2008. Please list these as I can only remember the two
For what its worth I think Phil is probably a little over priced at 16/1 and wouldn’t put anyone off backing him, especially if the flat stick is working again this week. But in my book Tiger Woods is in outstanding form and is still worth backing at 4/1. Its basically a free bet if you back him E/W because he’ll be placed at the very least!
Enjoy the Championship mate, and I look forward to a potential pasting from you come Monday morning!
