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I know I normally dont put this thread up till a fortnight before the Worlds greatest festival but by popular demand TAPK the worlds finest judge of a horse is going to build up to March 11th slowly this year.Those who read the Sh*te that comes out my mouth will know that there’s always a few Golden Nuggets in it.
Looking back just over recent years my results prove that Ante-Post betting at Cheltenham is a potential Gold mine.Synchronised at 20’s down was probably my most confident and emotional of wagers for the 2012 Gold cup,he was my first ever bet at my failed attempt at being a Pro Gambler when he won the Welsh National.Sir des Champs at 12/1 for the ‘Jewson’ tested my resolve as Willie Mullins did his best attempt at sending Smoke signals! Back in focus another 12/1 winner of the National hunt chase,Alderwood at 9/1 for the Grand Annual,At Fishers Cross at 6/1 all returning way shorter SP’s.The Kim Muir is a race I tried to pull off the hatrick with last year but ‘Alfie sherrin’ couldn’t match my previous two 16/1 winners in Sunnyhill boy and my most publicised coup ever with Junior,character that he is, he owes us nothing.In all my years of betting Ante-Post though I still maintain the biggest certainty of all would have been Weapons Amnesty winning a Gold cup,I remember vividly putting him up on this forum at 16/1 for the 2010 RSA and being laughed at by those who thought ‘Long Run’ was a good thing.TAPK and Davy Russell had the last laugh as connections always knew he was going to be a better chaser than hurdler and yet he’s won the previous years Albert bartlett.10/1 he was returned in the RSA……10/1 eh? Unbelievable for those of us who keep the faith and maintain confidence in our own judgement.I’ll finish off this little sermon by saying that Taquin de Seul at 10/1 will avenge his defeat by ‘Oscar Whiskey’ who trades at half those odds come ‘Jewson’ time.There endeth the lesson in knowing ones horses.As always, love reading your sermons
I will shock you by saying I have a feeling that Nicky Henderson may shock many and send Oscar Whisky for the Arkle
I’ve enjoyed some great punts down the years but none compare to my fathers best win ever, now I have to say my old man was clueless and only backed outsiders!!
Back to me, had a few as you can imagine, horses for courses added to trends = good winnings. Backing my old favourite See More Business at 25s down to 16s was my favourite win made me very happy especially as I had 3 winners running onto him at 16s in EW doubles and trebles the previous year when he was taken out when cruising by none other than AP McCoy!!
Backing Hurricane Fly at 8s whilst in Germany when he was 5/2 in England was great!!
The amateur race 3 years ago won by an Irish horse beginning with Z ridden by the top amateur backed at all rates from 66s the night before went off 20s I think and cruised home!!
Going large on Big Bucks from Oct onwards each year and keeping fingers crossed was always great!
Many more but I’m sure you’ve logged off now but just in case you haven’t back to my Dad, the main reason he backed outsiders was he only ever bet small stakes and loved his Lucky 15s!! That is until I introduced him to place pots, ideal for him as outsiders make for good pots! He was on at the festival many times and lost out in the last leg so I taught him to double his selections in races 1 and 6 – blow me down the following year for his 10p ppot with an outlay of £4.80 won him the grand total of £53, 800 all because that year he got it with his 3rd selection (sp of 40/1) in the final leg
. Loved hearing him going on about that win for ever!!The Supreme Hurdle
What a race to start with,had ‘Darlan’ and ‘My Tent or yours’ won their respective ‘Supremes’ I wouldn’t have needed another winner the whole 4 days of the festival.This year I’ve been pretty dissapointed with the 2m Novice hurdle brigade and the Ante-Post favs thus far dont tick my boxes.Two horses who both look like potential ‘Supreme’sorts are
Lieutenant Colonel
20/1 and his recent Navan victor
Vautour
10/1,I believe the former is the better long term prospect and could be a serious ‘Neptune’ sort.I remember Henry Ponsonby targeting the 1st race of the festival with his novice ‘General Miller’ a few years ago,unfortunately the horse fell at the first but he has a potential Champion hurdler in
Tiger Cliff
and a tilt at this years ‘Supreme’ would seem the logical step forward.Of course the problem here is Alan Kings yard is under a cloud and this ex Henry Cecil trained fine looking son of ‘Tiger Hill’ sire of the ill-fated ‘Rewilding’ who finished 3rd to none other than my 25/1 Derby winner ‘Workforce’.20/1 is still freely available about last years Ebor winner and that piece of form alone tells you he’s a player,what seals it for me is the size of this horse and his run in the Cesarewitch told me he’d be cantering over 2m over hurdles whereas he’d be up against much more stamina laden hurdlers in the ‘Neptune’ and I believe that race just wouldn’t suit so well.
Selection,
Tiger Cliff
e/w 20/1.
Edit, 10/01/14
Vautour
cut from 10/1 into 8/1 across the board in a quiet week of racing.Money talks and this fellow is a worthy fav,small but has gears.
Edit,14/01/14
Tiger cliff
all but ruled out of the ‘Supreme’ by Alan King due to Yard virtually closed down,Sad but it looked inevitable with No racecourse performance thus far and the clock keeps ticking.I wont forget him for next year though as he is a serious National Hunt prospect imo.
Edit,06/02/14
First Mohican
,made his debut over hurdles today and did nothing wrong,he looks the ideal substitute to ‘Tiger Cliff’ not running,not just because he’s trained and owned by the same connections as his former Cecil inmate.20/1 is still available and is certainly worth a punt.
Edit,09/02/14, Again
Vautour
proves why he is a serious ‘Supreme’ sort today and he’s shortening all the time.5/1 fav is justified,the one to beat for sure.
Edit,22/02/14,
Irving
played his hand today and was visually impressive,his supporters will be sitting comfortably as we go into the last 3 weeks till festival time.My opinion is
Vautour
is still the horse to beat from what we have seen all season.
Brilliant result for your Father Gary,I too like the odd lucky 15/31 and have hit the post myself several times,my one lucky 63 that paid me handsomely was way back in the early 90’s,I had 5 winners up,all at under 10/1 but a horse called ‘Shamirani’ won me my final leg at around 5/1,I took 8/1 in the morning.What a feeling!
The Arkle
This years Arkle is as wide open as it gets,there’s No ‘Simonsig’ this year but he draws good form to the table in
Felix Yonger
,who himself would be my Fav.I say that because I really cant see ‘Champagne Fever’ taking this 2m route and that collateral form with the ‘talkin horse’ ‘Defy Logic’ and ‘Trifolium’ reads well.Another clear factor is the fact that last time out he clearly didn’t stay,that and the fact he’s owned by the Wylies tells me this fellow is an Arkle horse.Talking of ‘Defy Logic’ I cant have him as an Arkle horse even though his form reads well and his ‘Annie Power’ run looks all the better for the latters rapid rise to stardom.I remember saying ‘Tidal Bay’ was a proper RSA horse back in the winter of 2007,he was a ‘Flemensfirth’ with a head carriage who couldn’t jump consistently and he only went and won the Arkle so as much as I expect ‘Defy Logic’ to blunder his chances away I could easily end up eating humble pie.Now for my idea of a proper e/w Arkle horse at a price and thats
Trifolium
,at 25/1 he is the Dark horse of the race but more than that he’s trained by a shrewd judge in Charles Byrnes,whilst ‘Defy Logic’ and ‘Felix Yonger’ have put their hands on the table,’Trifolium’ has still to play his,he’s been learning the ‘Weapons Amnesty’ way rather than the ‘Solwhit’ way and this fellow who has ‘Supreme’ form around the course has always looked to me to be a Chaser in the making.
Edit, 12/01/14, Its always re-assuring for ones confidence when a Trainer agrees with you and today Willie Mullins
suggested
that
Champagne fever
, current 4/1 fav will be campaigned beyond 2m whilst
Felix Yonger
will stick to what looks his perfect trip in 2m,that would make him a proper Arkle horse and its no surprise he’s been cut to 8’s from 10’s today.
Edit, 26/01/14. Couldn’t have asked for more from
Trifolium
today,he posted a serious Arkle performance in the Grade 1 Arkle in Ireland today beating some very useful sorts including the over-rated ‘Defy Logic’ and the not so over-rated ‘Felix Yonger’. Slashed into 8/1 and confirms the faith I have in this fellow.
Edit, 08/02/14,
Dodging Bullets
just pipped by the very useful ‘Module’ there at Newbury puts himself in the Arkle picture by posting an effort thathad the ground been good would have won,he’s still a big baby but a fine stamp of a horse. 6/1 on offer is fair for the obvious target.
Selection,
Trifolium
,e/w 25/1
The Arkle
This years Arkle is as wide open as it gets,there’s No ‘Simonsig’ this year but he draws good form to the table in
Felix Yonger
,who himself would be my Fav.I say that because I really cant see ‘Champagne Fever’ taking this 2m route and that collateral form with the ‘talkin horse’ ‘Defy Logic’ and ‘Trifolium’ reads well.Another clear factor is the fact that last time out he clearly didn’t stay,that and the fact he’s owned by the Wylies tells me this fellow is an Arkle horse.Talking of ‘Defy Logic’ I cant have him as an Arkle horse even though his form reads well and his ‘Annie Power’ run looks all the better for the latters rapid rise to stardom.I remember saying ‘Tidal Bay’ was a proper RSA horse back in the winter of 2007,he was a ‘Flemensfirth’ with a head carriage who couldn’t jump consistently and he only went and won the Arkle so as much as I expect ‘Defy Logic’ to blunder his chances away I could easily end up eating humble pie.Now for my idea of a proper e/w Arkle horse at a price and thats
Trifolium
,at 25/1 he is the Dark horse of the race but more than that he’s trained by a shrewd judge in Charles Byrnes,whilst ‘Defy Logic’ and ‘Felix Yonger’ have put their hands on the table,’Trifolium’ has still to play his,he’s been learning the ‘Weapons Amnesty’ way rather than the ‘Solwhit’ way and this fellow who has ‘Supreme’ form around the course has always looked to me to be a Chaser in the making.
Selection,
Trifolium
,e/w 25/1
Dunno how you’ve come to the conclusion Felix didn’t stay last time out Gord. He was blatantly unable to quicken on the soft ground and was staying on well in finish when he eventually got going. I could see someone making a case for him being outpaced at Limerick but definitely not outstayed. At the end of the day I’m convinced the ground beat him and if Champagne Fever wins the Irish Arkle Felix will run in and win the Jewson imo.
My problem is this: if my Arkle horse Defy Logic beats Champagne Fever again, the Mullins pair could switch meaning my Jewson horse could beat my Arkle horse in the Arkle… Do you follow?
Trifolium definitely a place player, I think the Irish have the upper hand in this division!
National Hunt Chase 4m
Having had a 1st and a 2nd in the past 2 renewals of this race i’m fairly confident I could narrow this race down to 2 horses already,both incidentally have beaten my idea of this years RSA winner funnily enough.From the day
Sam Winner
ran 4th to ‘Zarkandar’ in the triumph hurdle I’ve had him down as a staying chaser,i wouldn’t write him off as an RSA sort but he really is one paced,but one paced who can keep up a gallop.My 2nd choice at this early stage would be
Le Bec
,he looks visually like an out and out stayer and would struggle in the RSA,this 4m trip looks tailor-made for this fine big stamp of a horse.Again we have a false fav in ‘Mendip Express’ and I’ll bet he doesn’t go off fav even if he turns up which I have my doubts.
Edit, 08/02/14, A proper National hunt chase performance from
Sam winner
in a race that is more an RSA trial than anything but this fellow just stays forever.10/1 is generous.
Selections,
Le Bec and Sam Winner
, both e/w 12/1.
Dunno how you’ve come to the conclusion Felix didn’t stay last time out Gord. He was blatantly unable to quicken on the soft ground and was staying on well in finish when he eventually got going. I could see someone making a case for him being outpaced at Limerick but definitely not outstayed.
Mark my words Tommy,’Felix Yonger’ is a proper 2 miler,he could be a Champion chaser next year,he has more speed than stamina so wont be going anywhere other than the Arkle,his last run at Limerick only confirmed what a useless jockey Paul Townend is again on a Wylie horse he rides like a prat.’Felix’ never really got home in the Neptune and certainly didn’t get home at Punchestowns so why push him over the ‘Jewson’ trip when he has more guns for 2 miles?
I’m not disputing that he’s an excellent two miler, in fact I’ve been saying that for quite a while. But he stays 2m 4f standing on his head, he flew up the hill in the Neptune. When Trifolium set a fierce clip at Navan, Felix flew up the hill there too, suggesting he may even improve at a trip beyond two miles.
I’d say Paul Townend thought Felix had enough speed to reel in The Paparazzi Kid but he got done for a turn of foot! On ground he obviously didn’t like. Incidentally that Punchestown run was run on heavy, which tells you all you need to know about it. It was at the end of the season too.
He stayed on well over 2m 4f in his first maiden hurdle also so I have no worries bout the Jewson trip for him.
As I said my worry is that if Defy Logic beats Champagne Fever again, Felix will probably run in the Arkle where’d he’d probably beat Nolan’s horse. If Champagne Fever wins there I’d expect Felix to be in the Jewson.
Champion hurdle
So long as the 2 young pretenders and the Champion himself turn up then this is the race of the meeting.When Bookmakers made ‘Our Conor’ the 5/1 fav for this years Champion hurdle I immediately thought No way,impressive though his Triumph hurdle was,visually,there’s no comparison to racing against proper 2m Grade 1 hurdlers and I’m afraid this fellow just isn’t one. ‘Hurricane Fly’ admirable sort that he is will bow to one of the 2 young pretenders.To have one of these two vastly improved hurdlers line up is something but to get both is rare thats how good
My tent or yours
and
The New One
are.Anyone wanting to back one or the other has missed the boat now as its difficult to split them.I backed MTOY at 33/1 with Corals and 25/1 with Bet365 last February for this years Champion hurdle just before he stretched his legs in the Tote gold trophy,I was offered 33/1 with Hills the same day our fellow contributor OLAS got 66/1!
I do fear ‘TNO’ you have too as he is a serious hurdler too and their form is tightly connected and thats why I seeJezki
as the 3rd horse home.
Annie Power
wont be running in this thankfully!
Edit 25/01/14. I still dont believe
Annie Power
will contest what is in effect a speed race,she proved today she can be dropped back to 2 miles on heavy ground but on much faster I’d prefer to see her over 3m.
Selection,
My Tent or yours
Ante-Post wagers at 33/1 and 25/1.
Annie really is the real deal! Hard enough to know where she will go this year let alone next!! I see World Hurdle and then maybe Champion Hurdle next year
Annie really is the real deal! Hard enough to know where she will go this year let alone next!! I see World Hurdle and then maybe Champion Hurdle next year
I said a while back she was the new
Quevega
Gary!
I think she’s a serious World hurdle sort now.Definitely not a Champion hurdler though imo.Annie really is the real deal! Hard enough to know where she will go this year let alone next!! I see World Hurdle and then maybe Champion Hurdle next year
I’m hoping we’ll see her over a fence next year, don’t ask me what trip though!
JLT Speciality Chase
I bloody hope
Shutthefrontdoor
doesn’t go for this even though a mark of 146 says he’s a player.Trouble is if connections think he can do a ‘Wichita Lineman’ his mark needs to drop considerably and thats not going to happen.No realistically the horse who should be trained for this is the one who beat my RSA selection in last years ‘Pertemps’ final in receipt of only 4lb and thats
Holywell
,if both the Jackdaws Castle inmates ran then he’d be getting an incredible 22lb from his JP owned stablemate and thats incredible,it actually makes ‘Holywell’ a handicap snip who should get in most years off around 10-2. 16/1 is freely available about a Cheltenham horse who looks like a typical target sort Jonjo thrives on.’Merry King’ is well up in the forefront of the Ante-Post markets for this but he failed miserably in the race last year and off much the same mark I cant see him having the scope of my selection who’s been pretty well schooled this season.
Edit,25/01/14.
Holywell
jumped round Catterick the other day to further bolster confidence so all bodes well still for an entry in this.
Edit,23/02/14.I went up to Doncaster on Wednesday to see thisHolywell
in action,he didn’t dissapoint and is definitely high on my Cheltenham raiding party……which race????
Edit,26/02/14,Strong support for
Shutthefrontdoor
in this and off bottom weight has to be seriously considered for this,10/1 NRNB with Bet365 is worth taking.
Selection,Holywell
e/w 16/1.
Its great to have a new superstar for the future coz that’s what she looks like, hopefully she’ll go in the good ground too
Royal Boy looks a nice sort for the Lanzarote from the Hendo yard but I am worried about If In Doubt, who could challenge, both EW prices
Mares Final,(The Quevega)
I actually enquired about a price for
Annie Power
for this sometime ago after a conversation with Darren and was offered 10/1.The only chance of this new wondermare taking this route is if anything happens to the other wondermare
Quevega
.Hopefully nothing will as she ought to have this race named in her honour.Evens is a gift but only on the day and come post time she will trade nearer 1/2 imo.There is no danger to either Mullins horse.
Selection,
Quevega
Evens. No bet.
Novices Handicap Chase 21/2m 0-140
This race is all about getting one in thats actually better than a 140 chaser and is a fine test of a trainers ability to place one carefully.
Hunt ball
springs to mind but that was a case of pushing ones luck somewhat.
Double ross
has looked the ideal candidate for this for sometime but he’s gone from 133 to 148 this season so has to be ruled out from an Ante-Post perspective now.If I was pushed to select one now though I’d side with Charlie Longsdons
Up to Something
his last run suggests to me at least he’s better than a 140 rated Novice and at 16/1 I would take the risk his trainer runs him light one more time before Cheltenham to protect his 140 mark.
Selection,
Up to Something
16/1.
I do fear ‘TNO’ you have too as he is a serious hurdler too and their form is tightly connected and thats why I see
I think she’s a serious World hurdle sort now.Definitely not a Champion hurdler though imo.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.