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Tricky,tricky,tricky gettin involved for decent money antipost in these events. Punts i’ve had though are;
Movewiththetimes – Close Bros @21s
Act of Valour @42s, Mercenaire @40s – Fred Winter
Mohayeed @34s, Campeador @27s – County
Forest Bihan @36s – Grand AnnualNo more than a score staked on each selection so far as i could of done it all in cold blood come festival time.
Favourite race of the festival for me. Hit the crossbar for the last 2 years but this years gonna be different. Sharjah is the play this time round. Lookin for a really dominant performance on Sunday to convince Willie to step Getabird up in trip and rely on this lad for the Supreme
AL BOUM PHOTO had looked potentially smart this season. Gave Tycoon Prince a 7 length towelling (level weights) on chase debut then came down at the last when looking a definite winner in a grade 2 event latest (went off 1-2f).Probably wants a bit of give underfoot but also ran with credit in a grade 1 on decent ground last year. Holds an entry in the R.S.A. but this is by far its most likely target
Shouldn’t really laugh at poor old judge. He had a semi meltdown this time last year. However – i couldn’t help but laugh my head off at his rant. The boy sounds like he has problems though
Stable form is a massive concern Kev. Im a massive fan of this horse though. I think Pauling had a big season in mind for this fella but in two runs,its not materialized. In my opinion,he raced with the choke out 1st time out and then got bogged down latest. 139 very workable.
The ground may of firmed up a bit for him but at a price,i like emperors choice @14s. Been bang outta form for 2 seasons until his win 2 starts back. Crept in at the foot of the weights for the Welsh national and a bucket load of cash came for the horse a few mins before the off – only to fall at the 1st. Venettia must think she’s still got the old boy well handicapped and in rude health. Could do with a deluge from the sky though.
No anti post play for me, but at bigger prices – Dino Velvet appeals most. Travelled really well into the race at Newbury before being given a sympathetic ride to finish 5th to the well handicapped old gaurd. Its was his 1st try beyond 2m but stayed 1m 4f on the flat so the step up to 2m 5f could suit. Only rated 123, @20s in a few places,he floats my boat.
Altior (with a run), Footpad (at the prices) and Yanworth would be my trio right now.
Bound to be a JP horse sent off way too short for a handicap too – Movewiththetimes perhaps.
Look out for a shockin run from Movewiththetimes next time out. Needs to be dropped 2lb to get in the close brothers
I won’t back him. But BEAU GOSSE is a class apart from any other juvenile
Thats been purchased from france so far. Maccaire also has a huge ammount of graded novice winners in the stable.BEAU GOOSE turns out at Auteuil today 1pm
I totally agree with every word of your Cause of Causes analysis. I mentioned in a Cheltenham thread that this horse has been a handicap shark all his career. He’s a Graded horse whos been expertly placed in handicaps for the big occassions. The fences could be his biggest opponent rather than the other 39 runners. I’ve tonked it @33s A/P and 18s NRNB. Hopefully he can regain my ‘Melon Millions’ from Cheltenham. Others i’ve played for smaller stakes are ; Vincente @25s, Stella Notion @66s and Saint Are @40s.
The antipost markets haven’t been kind to me over the last few years. At the 2016 festival, over £2700 of A/P bets went without a run and the few tickets that did make it,didn’t really cut much ice. The 2017 festival wasn’t much better,with just over £1000 of A/P returning nothing (most of it on Melon and Crack Mome). Although i’m eager to get stuck in again at this early stage this year,i feel i need a change of tactics. Therefore,no bets will be struck for the 2018 festival until the NRNB comes into play. Some interesting novices i’ll be keeping on side come October are ; Cause Toujours (novice hurdles), Senewalk (novice hurdles) Tombstone (novice chasing) and a dark horse – Action Replay (novice chasing). All 4 should handsomely pay their way through the Winter months,with the latter starting off on a lowly mark and could develope into a Close Brothers candidate come the 2018 festival.
I wish all yee brave folk that are willing to have a punt at this early stage good luck,but this year,its not for me #discipline
Well done to Sizing John supporters and a great win for Jessica Harrington.
Followed BDM to the bitter end and disappointed with his jumping throughout but at least he finished and all horses came back safe and well.Looking at the results over the last 4 days and especially the Thursday and Friday can anyone put their hand up and say that they made a profit on the meeting overall and how did this year’s Festival compare to last in that respect.
JacFriday was my saving grace. Had a pony e/w on Champagne Classic @25s and 40 e/w on Rock the world @10s Plus e/w returns on Bapaume and Winter Escape. Still massively down on the week as a whole. Over a grands worth of A/P bets that either didn’t turn up or had no return. Days 2 and 3 we’re financial wipe outs. Tiger Roll @16s saw me levels for Tuesday. I’ll be givin Aintree some stick then thats it then till October – i’ll leave the flat to the flat experts.
I think Defi du suel and Mega Fortune are lay material in the Triumph. With conditions set to be quicker on the new course,they can be taken on with the likes of Bapaume, Charlie Parcs and Landofhopeandglory. I’ll stick my neck on the line and say that Defi Du Suel may become the latest big gun to miss the fesival.
Good work me. Just 1st and 2nd in the Triumph. I think i’ll take up stamp collecting
The way this festival has gone,i wont have any money left to have a punt in the finale. But just incase i do,theirs 2 that interest me here. Davy Russell has been extremely bullish about Dandridge all week and Rock the World for the Harringtons. 2nd and 3rd in last years renewal. Dandridge ran a burster after an absolute howler at the 1st fence. Although up in the weights a few pound,Russells confidence will inspire me to have a punt. Rock the world came in for significant support late in the day last year. Made a bit of a horlicks of the water but made the frame. He’s gonna get the same conditions/rating as last year so is of obvious interest. I haven’t heard its had a wind op but if thats true,that can only be another positive.
Song Light for me too. Does anyone know why Wait for Me never scaled the heights he should have done. A standing dish at the Festival for a couple of years now and on a winning mark. Has he had injury problems?? Think he’s got a first time tongue tie on tomorrow.Can’t ignore him.
Been a long time since he was mixing it with Moon Racer, Buvuer D’air etc. He’s had plenty of chances in these big handicaps and always goes off a skinny price without threatning the judge. Had my fingers burnt far to many times to get involved 2moro
This will probably be Djakadam’s year. The simple reason for that is that I haven’t backed him this year.
I had a small bet at 33/1 two years ago and right after that 2nd to Coneygree I backed him for the following season’s race at 16/1. Again, he finished 2nd but was a clear second best, just unable to match Don Cossack at the end.
I felt his chances were probably behind him but with others falling by the wayside he became likely to at least place this year. The trouble is that he’s far too short for a saver for me. I’ll just ride it out on Native River and Champagne West at 33/1 and 50/1 respectively but I am not confident of either horse winning this.
Native River would have a chance of going close but Colin Tizzard has gone stone cold at the wrong time. He is 0/27 this past fortnight and only Fox Norton has run with anything like a sign of well being this week so far. That’s a big negative for me on Native River and also Cue Card, for the stable that looked to have a lock on the race at one stage. The question now is looking more like can Tizzard get one in the frame? Not so long ago a 1-2-3 was being touted.
Twiston-Davies is also out of form, 1/33 the past fortnight and that dampens already limited enthusiasm for Bristol De Mai in my mindset.
Outlander does not excite me as much as he does some people and Sizing John got no sort of boost from Empire Of Dirt’s modest effort in the Ryanair today.
Very little seems to getting made of the Tizzard stable form with tipsters putting up Cue Card and Native River with undiminished confidence. I am smelling a year old kipper bad feeling in the air though and am keeping expectations low for Native River. You get the feeling Djakadam may go off 2/1 here.
Your exactly right,Tizzards form has fallen right off the cliff, leaving Djakadam to probably win this by default,but can i back him at the prices – probably not. Im hoping More of That can sneak round just off the pace and hopefully ruffle a few feathers entering the straight. The horse is in apparent sparkling form at home,so at 12s,im a player
