Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

[Nathan Hughes]

If as you wrote I (some people) clearly dont understand then I would miss the point, wouldn’t I…..

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[Nathan Hughes]

Besides my post was my own thoughts on how I think about the price of Melon
bugger all to do with what you have done, I haven’t even read your posts on Melon so what I’m not supposed to understand is irrelevant as I don’t care if you are backing and laying as an individual

Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026

[ham]

I was talking in the context of melon, i have no issue with melon nor do i have any fondness towards melon, who melon is does not matter….i back him at higher odds because of speculation and comments the same way i would as if it were henderson talking about charli parcs, they win a maiden and shorten up, i may lay off at that point or if i think theres a chance theyll shorten more then ill wait it out (as in melons case) then ill lay them off

one way or another (aslong as disaster does not happen – which it often does) then they all will be laid off to some degree

I fail alot with this – example- chateau conti.

[Jaymo74]

And Capitaine

[ham]

Nathan Hughes wrote:

Besides my post was my own thoughts on how I think about the price of Melon
bugger all to do with what you have done, I haven’t even read your posts on Melon so what I’m not supposed to understand is irrelevant as I don’t care if you are backing and laying as an individual

Wasnt meant to come across abrasive

I havent said much on melon for the most part maybe they own melon?

[ham]

Jaymo74 wrote:

And Capitaine

Yep thats Another one

Like i said, it dosent always work

[ham]

So the comments that id do anything to come across good are disasterously failing as of right now

[Jaymo74]

Each to their own Ham my old mate. Me personally, i cant be negative on a selection if i’ve put my ‘hard earned’ on it but thats just me.

Good Luck

[ham]

Jaymo74 wrote:

Each to their own Ham my old mate. Me personally, i cant be negative on a selection if i’ve put my ‘hard earned’ on it but thats just me.

Good Luck

I said so myself im not knocking you for picking melon, nor am i knocking melon

He might be another faugheen, he might not, but from a laying perspective at 4/1 i can see the angle for that

I hope you win your bet, by the time the race goes off, it wont matter to me who wins. Ill already have won on that market (fail on the rest i might add)

[Gingertipster]

botchy1 wrote:

On the backing front. I don’t know how The Storyteller has got in the MP race off 141 at all and looks a fair bit better than that.

Then on the other hand Presenting Percy has been clobbered 10 lbs by the Irish handicapper and the UK one adds another 6 on top for good measure.Fair enough PP has been having some quiet runs this year and hacked up last time out ( won by 2 l ) but come on ?

The second point is just pocket talking from me as i’m quite positive he would of won the Pertemps without that hike.

I don’t get this Botchy.
If the handicapper has got it so wrong how come the horse is still fvourite in some lists and joint favourite in most? Bookmakers and/or many punters must believe PP the best/second best chance even with the rise in weights. May be true there are other things to take in to account other than weight, but if poorly handicapped punters would not make it fav/joint fav.

When a horse “hacks up” it doesn’t really matter that it won by “2 lengths”. Fact is he had a hell of a lot more in hand than the winning distance suggests. When horses are not allowed to stride on judging how much it has in hand is extremely difficult for everyone. Fair enough if Davy Russell wants to make it difficult for the handicapper, that’s his choice. But by doing so Russell himself has ensured it could actually be put in either leniently or harshly. Where as if allowed to stride on it is easier for the handicapper to give a fair rating.

To be “quite positive he would of won the Pertemps (a valuable big handicap) without that hike”, surely PP must have (in your opinion) been well-handicapped before the hike? Therefore, after the hike PP is now fairly handicapped?

Value Is Everything

[botchy1]

Ginge, i get your point, and like i said it is “just pocket talking”. I think 10 lbs was fair but to add 6 on top was excessive and just smacks of arrogance.

Surely there should be some discussion between handicappers from both sides to resolve doubts and concerns on a horses handicap rating, rather than one guy’s opinion that some Irish guys are trying to make a fool out of him and he will try to hinder them.

If i remember right the horse was 16-1 before the race and after it won was cut to 10’s then over the next few days went to 5’s. Then the weights were revealed and he went out to 8’s so the extra rise had a negative impact on his price and therefore his chance of winning.

[Jaymo74]

I think Defi du suel and Mega Fortune are lay material in the Triumph. With conditions set to be quicker on the new course,they can be taken on with the likes of Bapaume, Charlie Parcs and Landofhopeandglory. I’ll stick my neck on the line and say that Defi Du Suel may become the latest big gun to miss the fesival.

[thejudge1]

and it wouldn’t be the biggest ever shock if Altoir or Douvan were turned over, I’m unconvinced that anything running over two miles at cheltenham over fences, at the pace they go, can ever be described as a banker, and certainly think it would be madness to bet long odds on

Well I at least called this correctly even if I got might bite wrong.

I think what today shows is that it’s just very hard to win any race at the festival. There will never be a cakewalk over two miles over fences at the festival just because of the nature of the races.

Neon Wolf ran very well and still got beat. Douvan didn’t even turn up and Altoir had a bit of a wobble.

That’s why I don’t believe people who say it’s easy to get winners at cheltenham and how they clean up every year without exception. Bookies have struck back this year with a vengeance.

Looking at the rest of the festival, Mullins horses are clearly vulnerable at the moment so that’s ominous for Yorkhill. Perhaps he’ll buck the trend. You’d have to be concerned about the Hobbs in the triumph with the state of the ground and Charlie Parcs looking very dangerous now with the form of Hendersons horses. Also I’m not very worried about Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett as feel the ground might be too quick for him.

[raymo61]

Just Douvan let me down!!
Melon got beat VVM got beat and Altior won.
Three out of four aint bad!!
Someone ought to write a song like that

[thejudge1]

Yes Melon getting beat didn’t help me at all

but thanks for reminding me

[Red Rum 77]

About the backing and laying of horses. I think Ham backed it at a huge price and laid off at a smaller price, reducing his risk or even guarantee a profit no matter what the result. When it works its brilliant

At least that’s how I read it.

You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.

[thejudge1]

Surely not!

[Author]

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