Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2017 Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

This topic contains 78 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by  Jaymo74 2 years, 4 months ago.

Viewing 15 posts - 61 through 75 (of 79 total)
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  • #1290742
    Gingertipster
    Gingertipster
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    On the backing front. I don’t know how The Storyteller has got in the MP race off 141 at all and looks a fair bit better than that.

    Then on the other hand Presenting Percy has been clobbered 10 lbs by the Irish handicapper and the UK one adds another 6 on top for good measure.Fair enough PP has been having some quiet runs this year and hacked up last time out ( won by 2 l ) but come on ?

    The second point is just pocket talking from me as i’m quite positive he would of won the Pertemps without that hike. :good:

    I don’t get this Botchy.
    If the handicapper has got it so wrong how come the horse is still fvourite in some lists and joint favourite in most? Bookmakers and/or many punters must believe PP the best/second best chance even with the rise in weights. May be true there are other things to take in to account other than weight, but if poorly handicapped punters would not make it fav/joint fav.

    When a horse “hacks up” it doesn’t really matter that it won by “2 lengths”. Fact is he had a hell of a lot more in hand than the winning distance suggests. When horses are not allowed to stride on judging how much it has in hand is extremely difficult for everyone. Fair enough if Davy Russell wants to make it difficult for the handicapper, that’s his choice. But by doing so Russell himself has ensured it could actually be put in either leniently or harshly. Where as if allowed to stride on it is easier for the handicapper to give a fair rating.

    To be quite positive he would of won the Pertemps (a valuable big handicap) without that hike”, surely PP must have (in your opinion) been well-handicapped before the hike? Therefore, after the hike PP is now fairly handicapped? :unsure:

    value is everything
    #1290751
    botchy1
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    Ginge, i get your point, and like i said it is “just pocket talking”. I think 10 lbs was fair but to add 6 on top was excessive and just smacks of arrogance.

    Surely there should be some discussion between handicappers from both sides to resolve doubts and concerns on a horses handicap rating, rather than one guy’s opinion that some Irish guys are trying to make a fool out of him and he will try to hinder them.

    If i remember right the horse was 16-1 before the race and after it won was cut to 10’s then over the next few days went to 5’s. Then the weights were revealed and he went out to 8’s so the extra rise had a negative impact on his price and therefore his chance of winning.

    #1291489

    Jaymo74
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    I think Defi du suel and Mega Fortune are lay material in the Triumph. With conditions set to be quicker on the new course,they can be taken on with the likes of Bapaume, Charlie Parcs and Landofhopeandglory. I’ll stick my neck on the line and say that Defi Du Suel may become the latest big gun to miss the fesival.

    #1292370
    thejudge1
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    and it wouldn’t be the biggest ever shock if Altoir or Douvan were turned over, I’m unconvinced that anything running over two miles at cheltenham over fences, at the pace they go, can ever be described as a banker, and certainly think it would be madness to bet long odds on

    Well I at least called this correctly even if I got might bite wrong.

    I think what today shows is that it’s just very hard to win any race at the festival. There will never be a cakewalk over two miles over fences at the festival just because of the nature of the races.

    Neon Wolf ran very well and still got beat. Douvan didn’t even turn up and Altoir had a bit of a wobble.

    That’s why I don’t believe people who say it’s easy to get winners at cheltenham and how they clean up every year without exception. Bookies have struck back this year with a vengeance.

    Looking at the rest of the festival, Mullins horses are clearly vulnerable at the moment so that’s ominous for Yorkhill. Perhaps he’ll buck the trend. You’d have to be concerned about the Hobbs in the triumph with the state of the ground and Charlie Parcs looking very dangerous now with the form of Hendersons horses. Also I’m not very worried about Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett as feel the ground might be too quick for him.

    #1292383
    raymo61
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    Just Douvan let me down!!
    Melon got beat VVM got beat and Altior won.
    Three out of four aint bad!!
    Someone ought to write a song like that :whistle: :whistle:

    #1292399
    thejudge1
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    Yes Melon getting beat didn’t help me at all

    but thanks for reminding me :-(

    #1292446
    Red Rum 77
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    About the backing and laying of horses. I think Ham backed it at a huge price and laid off at a smaller price, reducing his risk or even guarantee a profit no matter what the result. When it works its brilliant :good: :good:

    At least that’s how I read it.

    #1292450
    thejudge1
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    Surely not! :yahoo:

    #1292491

    ham
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    About the backing and laying of horses. I think Ham backed it at a huge price and laid off at a smaller price, reducing his risk or even guarantee a profit no matter what the result. When it works its brilliant :good: :good:

    At least that’s how I read it.

    Thats basically it, was guaranteed profit and labaik winning was just about the best result i could have had…. melon did do better than i thought though and im extremely glad labaik decided to start… had a nibble on him in the morning at 33s as a side bet as i do like a few peoples suggestions on here! And had river wylde e/w on the day in the shop…. about the only race so far thats went that way!!

    It works brilliant when you get it right but it does involve luck of course, always lay them off if you have the chance…

    Neptune was nearly a disaster though but lets not get into that :good:

    #1292502
    thejudge1
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    But only nearly, right? you never lose, right? ;-)

    #1292541

    ham
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    But only nearly, right? you never lose, right? ;-)

    Dont know where you get that from i gave you two examples of losers in this thread and i made it clear on here i thought neon wolf would walk the neptune…. i think you have an issue :wacko:

    Just because it wasnt a disaster dosent mean i didnt lose, it just means i didnt have a disaster…. and trust me, i nearly had a disaster LOL

    #1292542

    ham
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    And to add to that ive also made it clear i think UKWIMH will walk the stayers, which you refuted, so if he loses theres another loser lol

    And no unfortunately i dont have UKWIMH in big prices, 2/1 MAX mainly 7/4 and no im not green in the book so its UNWIMH or nothing :good: …..

    #1292583
    thejudge1
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    So please explain what your “nearly disaster” consisted of…

    #1292590
    charlie87
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    But only nearly, right? you never lose, right? ;-)

    Dont know where you get that from i gave you two examples of losers in this thread and i made it clear on here i thought neon wolf would walk the neptune…. i think you have an issue :wacko:

    Just because it wasnt a disaster dosent mean i didnt lose, it just means i didnt have a disaster…. and trust me, i nearly had a disaster LOL

    I think you are right.

    #1292687
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    But only nearly, right? you never lose, right? ;-)

    Dont know where you get that from i gave you two examples of losers in this thread and i made it clear on here i thought neon wolf would walk the neptune…. i think you have an issue :wacko:

    Just because it wasnt a disaster dosent mean i didnt lose, it just means i didnt have a disaster…. and trust me, i nearly had a disaster LOL

    I think you are right.

    Well maybe I have an “issue” with the amount of aftertimers that seem to have appeared on this forum of late, like Charlie and Ham who claim never to lose.

    Even when you lose a bet you’ve got some sort of bookies concession which means you haven’t really lost, or if you tell us about a losing bet you’ll qualify this with “but at least I won heavily on this race later which meant I was well up on the day”

    Sad that even on a forum where everyone is a stranger people still can’t be honest. :-(

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