Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2017 Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

This topic contains 78 replies, has 18 voices, and was last updated by  Jaymo74 2 years, 4 months ago.

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  • #1290355
    CharlesOlney
    CharlesOlney
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    Altior, Douvan, Unowhatimeanharry & Defi Du Seuil look pretty bomb-proof. Melon might not even go off favourite in the Supreme so you’re not putting your neck on the line opposing him, but a shorty I’ll take on is Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett as I think the opposition is pretty decent (Wholestone, West Approach, Augusta Kate).

    #1290356
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    I’m unsure about Death Duty. Part of me is tempted to back him as I’m inclined to believe the trainer and that he’s the second coming, and part of me thinks that he’s a soft ground plodder who will be exposed by the more electric gears of some of the others on the better cheltenham ground.

    #1290362

    Jaymo74
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    Death Duty is a surefire lay. Wants dig and ain’t gonna get it. Will get totally out speeded by West Approach.

    Cantlow in the cross country is opposable with Cause of Causes. I think Cause of Causes can improve past Cantlow who ain’t gettin any younger.

    I’ll also be taking on Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair. The new course will be pretty rapid by Thursday and thats not UDS’s bag.

    #1290366

    pagegriff1
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    Good luck in that rollover its an excellent bet

    #1290378
    Vautour
    Vautour
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    Death Duty is a surefire lay. Wants dig and ain’t gonna get it. Will get totally out speeded by West Approach.

    Cantlow in the cross country is opposable with Cause of Causes. I think Cause of Causes can improve past Cantlow who ain’t gettin any younger.

    I’ll also be taking on Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair. The new course will be pretty rapid by Thursday and thats not UDS’s bag.

    What makes you think Death Duty wants “dig”? With all his form on Soft I can see how you arrived at that conclusion. Elliot doesn’t seem to agree with you and he sees him every day. Will go on any ground, according to the man himself. Still think it’s a tough race and he will have to be as good as they think he is to win it but lets see what he’s like on good ground before we rule him out completely.

    Un De Sceaux has learnt to settle in the last year so a longer trip on good ground would be fine for him; I agree that he would love a bit of dig but he’s a class horse and should be ok without it over 2 mile 5f. If Empire of Dirt went to The Gold Cup then I can’t see Un De Sceaux losing regardless of the ground; if Empire of Dirt stays in The RyanAir and the Ground is good then it will interesting.

    #1290385

    Jaymo74
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    Hi Vat,

    Death Duty is a surefire lay. Wants dig and ain’t gonna get it. Will get totally out speeded by West Approach.

    Cantlow in the cross country is opposable with Cause of Causes. I think Cause of Causes can improve past Cantlow who ain’t gettin any younger.

    I’ll also be taking on Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair. The new course will be pretty rapid by Thursday and thats not UDS’s bag.

    What makes you think Death Duty wants “dig”? With all his form on Soft I can see how you arrived at that conclusion. Elliot doesn’t seem to agree with you and he sees him every day. Will go on any ground, according to the man himself. Still think it’s a tough race and he will have to be as good as they think he is to win it but lets see what he’s like on good ground before we rule him out completely.

    Un De Sceaux has learnt to settle in the last year so a longer trip on good ground would be fine for him; I agree that he would love a bit of dig but he’s a class horse and should be ok without it over 2 mile 5f. If Empire of Dirt went to The Gold Cup then I can’t see Un De Sceaux losing regardless of the ground; if Empire of Dirt stays in The RyanAir and the Ground is good then it will interesting.

    Ref. Death Duty.
    I think the more testing ground brings his stamina into play. On a drying surface,i think he’ll get out speeded when the taps get turned on.

    Ref. Un Du Sceaux.
    Not worried about Empire of Dirt,its the other Gigginstown boy im very interested in – Sub Leuitenant. UDS could get taken on for the lead by Uxizandre and i can see Sub Leuitenant mopping up the pieces

    #1290409
    Vautour
    Vautour
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    So your Death Duty analysis is based on theory really? That’s fair enough. We won’t know until we see him on good ground but until we do I’m happy enough to take Elliot’s word. He has bigged him up and in fairness he has played down Outlander and Empire if Dirts chances so he doesn’t just big up his horses for the sake of it. Time will tell.

    Uxizandre and Sub Leiutenant both have at least a half a stone to find on Un De Sceaux. He’s clearly a classier animal.

    #1290410

    Jaymo74
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    So your Death Duty analysis is based on theory really? That’s fair enough. We won’t know until we see him on good ground but until we do I’m happy enough to take Elliot’s word. He has bigged him up and in fairness he has played down Outlander and Empire if Dirts chances so he doesn’t just big up his horses for the sake of it. Time will tell.

    Uxizandre and Sub Leiutenant both have at least a half a stone to find on Un De Sceaux. He’s clearly a classier animal.

    Im not debating the fact that UDS is the classier horse – ratings tell you that. The angle is that Uxizandre could hassle UDS up front putting him off his jumping. With the ground probably to quick for him aswell, i’m looking to lay him.

    #1290413
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    So your Death Duty analysis is based on theory really? That’s fair enough. We won’t know until we see him on good ground but until we do I’m happy enough to take Elliot’s word. He has bigged him up and in fairness he has played down Outlander and Empire if Dirts chances so he doesn’t just big up his horses for the sake of it. Time will tell.

    Uxizandre and Sub Leiutenant both have at least a half a stone to find on Un De Sceaux. He’s clearly a classier animal.

    I doubt Death Duty will have a problem with decent ground, he’s a very good horse and these type of horses can go on any ground. There’s even a video of his PTP win where he looks very enthusiastic and bounds along.

    The biggest thing is his favour is he gets his head down and tries. You want these sort of horses on your side at cheltenham, and when Gordon spoke about him at the betfair preview there was an unmistakable glint in his eye.

    Obviously the biggest problem is the opposition. As others have pointed out it looks quite a hot race with a serious rival in there in West approach as well as Augusta kate and wholestone

    #1290461
    stevecaution
    stevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8281

    Well that’s Limini laid successfully already. She wasn’t supplemented for the Champion Hurdle. Silly odds and purely because of Mullins Fever.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1290471
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Don’t think she would have won anyway. His other mares aren’t in the same parish as Annie power.

    Have backed death duty. Slightly concerned about the opposition but hoping that the trainers confidence is rewarded B-)

    #1290476

    stilvi
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    So your Death Duty analysis is based on theory really? That’s fair enough. We won’t know until we see him on good ground but until we do I’m happy enough to take Elliot’s word. He has bigged him up and in fairness he has played down Outlander and Empire if Dirts chances so he doesn’t just big up his horses for the sake of it. Time will tell.

    Uxizandre and Sub Leiutenant both have at least a half a stone to find on Un De Sceaux. He’s clearly a classier animal.

    At every single preview Elliott (and Murphy and Kennedy) has whined about not being not being able to run Empire Of Dirt in the Gold Cup. He is then asked what are the chances of that happening and he then replies next to none. So what’s the point in continually bleating? He has got this horse totally wrong. If it were down to him he would still be running in handicaps. That is the reason he is sulking rather than bigging the horse up. It is easily his best chance of the week.

    Empire Of Dirt is at least 10lbs better than Sub Lieutenant and a good few pounds in front of Un De Sceaux.

    #1290482
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    according to the official handicapper it’s 7 pounds behind Un De Sceaux

    #1290485

    stilvi
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    according to the official handicapper it’s 7 pounds behind Un De Sceaux

    I don’t doubt that he is. It’s all about opinions, in mine Un De Sceaux is too high and Empire OF Dirt is too low. Even if you accept the official figures there are doubts about the distance and ground for Un De Sceaux. Other than recovery time and luck in running (which all horses might need) I can’t see any such doubts for Empire Of Dirt.

    In general I think there are plenty of horses who are too high. I don’t think Thistlecrack had a prayer of running to his rating and I think it will be a similar story for Djakadam. As I said before in reality there a whole load of horses between 155-165 but hardly any are worth 170+.

    #1290500
    thejudge1
    thejudge1
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    Fair enough, it’s a big call. Think Un De Sceaux the one horse who could blow this field apart. Feel like he’s due a big race, one of the most exciting horses of the last few years for me but tends to get overshadowed by horses like douvan, undeservedly so in my opinion.

    Empire of dirt a solid horse but doesn’t blow me away. Uxizandre has a lot of class but never like backing these horses where the bounce factor might come into play :negative:

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