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Off the top of my head you have
Melon Supreme
Altoir Arkle
Neon Wolf Neptune
Might Bite RSA
Douvan Queen Mum
Unowhatimeanharry Stayers
Yorkhill JLT
Death Duty Albert Bartlett
And that one in the Triumph who’s name I can’t remember
There are others I probably haven’t mentioned but which of these do you think are the most vulnerable?
Personally it would be might bite in the RSA, because most of his best form is on flat tracks, and Neon Wolf as I feel he’s a “media darling” and faces some formidable rivals like Finian’s Oscar
It also wouldn’t suprise me if yorkhill was opposed on the day, given the jumping concerns, and it wouldn’t be the biggest ever shock if Altoir or Douvan were turned over, I’m unconvinced that anything running over two miles at cheltenham over fences, at the pace they go, can ever be described as a banker, and certainly think it would be madness to bet long odds on
Anything you’ll be looking to take on/lump the house on?
I’m happy to take on Uknowwhatimeanharry, Yorkhill and Death Duty.
I fancy a horse against each – Jezki, Politologue and Monalee.
There will be arguements for and against for every single one of these, no matter how strong a fav altior douvan etc someone will be opposing so your basically asking who would we bet my take on it is
Douvan and altior win if they get round
Yorkhill will probably win IF he gets round, wouldnt back him at these prices for that risk
Ukwimh should win the stayers on all known form, jezki cole harden live outsiders
Might bite is opposable but if ADO is whats second in the market, then its going to be a poor race have bigger prices on most of them but not confident on any, coney island was the one.
Death duty is opposable because of the type of race the AB is, class horse in the race
Defi du seul Will probably win, wouldnt back at the price now
Melon is opposable on form but not on willies comments, at 4/1 id still oppose.
Neon wolf, will win either novice race
I would take on Melon, Neon Wolf, Might Bite and Death Duty. Head in the WO market with Altior and Douvan. Yorkhill and UKWIMH absolute bankers.
Melon
Altoir
Neon Wolf
Might Bite
Douvan
Unowhatimeanharry
Yorkhill
Death DutyPeople laughed at me when I said Altior was still value at 1/3 for the Arkle.
We know Yorkhill isn’t running and I believe Altior should be 1/8. I am not sure I would even offer that if I were the bookie. He’s 1/5 in places now and seems certain to face the next best thing to a walkover come the day. He arrives rated 1 lb more than Sprinter Sacre in his year and does not meet anything like the calibre of Cue Card and Menorah, who took Sprinter Sacre on in vain in the Arkle.
Altior was a fair bit better than Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, so it’s not the biggest shock that he is so highly rated, so early in his career. Only fall or injury can prevent him from rolling up the hill a long way clear.
Similarly, Douvan looks a lock. Altior and Un De Sceaux seem unlikely to turn up, so Fox Norton will be next in the betting on the day. Tizzard’s horse is talented enough but was put well in his place by Altior. If Fox Norton were my horse I would go Ryanair, rather than run for second in the Queen Mum but some owners seem obsessed with trying the impossible, so he’ll probably end up chasing Douvan home at a suitably remote distance.
I will be opposing the following favourites/close to favourites:-
Supreme Novices Melon
JLT Yorkhill
Champion Hurdle Yanworth
Neptune Neon Wolf
Gold Cup Cue Card
Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag
Mares Novices Let’s DanceThese are all too short in my opinion. I am also against Limini in the Champion Hurdle, Bouver D’Air in the same race and Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Un De Sceaux is getting too short in the Ryanair at 5/2 now so he may be a lay. I thought he was a fair price at 4/1-9/2 but not if he reaches 2/1 or less.
I have an ante-post roll up on Altior, Uknowwhatimeanharry, Finian’s Oscar and Death Duty (in Arkle, Stayers, Neptune and Albert Bartlett) It’s been a while since I landed one of them, namely 2003, when I had Back In Front, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate. Oh Happy days
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
People laughed at me when I said Altior was still value at 1/3 for the Arkle.
We know Yorkhill isn’t running and I believe Altior should be 1/8. I am not sure I would even offer that if I were the bookie. He’s 1/5 in places now and seems certain to face the next best thing to a walkover come the day. He arrives rated 1 lb more than Sprinter Sacre in his year and does not meet anything like the calibre of Cue Card and Menorah, who took Sprinter Sacre on in vain in the Arkle.
Altior was a fair bit better than Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, so it’s not the biggest shock that he is so highly rated, so early in his career. Only fall or injury can prevent him from rolling up the hill a long way clear.
Similarly, Douvan looks a lock. Altior and Un De Sceaux seem unlikely to turn up, so Fox Norton will be next in the betting on the day. Tizzard’s horse is talented enough but was put well in his place by Altior. If Fox Norton were my horse I would go Ryanair, rather than run for second in the Queen Mum but some owners seem obsessed with trying the impossible, so he’ll probably end up chasing Douvan home at a suitably remote distance.
I will be opposing the following favourites/close to favourites:-
Supreme Novices Melon
JLT Yorkhill
Champion Hurdle Yanworth
Neptune Neon Wolf
Gold Cup Cue Card
Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag
Mares Novices Let’s DanceThese are all too short in my opinion. I am also against Limini in the Champion Hurdle, Bouver D’Air in the same race and Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Un De Sceaux is getting too short in the Ryanair at 5/2 now so he may be a lay. I thought he was a fair price at 4/1-9/2 but not if he reaches 2/1 or less.
I have an ante-post roll up on Altior, Uknowwhatimeanharry, Finian’s Oscar and Death Duty (in Arkle, Stayers, Neptune and Albert Bartlett) It’s been a while since I landed one of them, namely 2003, when I had Back In Front, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate. Oh Happy days
I get you, but I wouldn’t take 1/8 on a horse to get around. It only take for him to misjudge one, stumble or even have one come down in front of him. I think he is all class, I think he will win but value… I’m not sure about.
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
The only one id back at the current odds is acapella bourgeois based on his last run, has ADO done that? No,
has might bite? Was about to
Look at the price differenceInteresting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?
Yeah maybe. People have this pegged as a soft ground slogger but it’s possible that it just took a leap forward last time. I don’t think it will have a problem with good ground at all. Well it had better not because the sun is pouring down and think it will be good ground by weds
Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.
Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.
You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it
If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?
Yeah maybe. People have this pegged as a soft ground slogger but it’s possible that it just took a leap forward last time. I don’t think it will have a problem with good ground at all. Well it had better not because the sun is pouring down and think it will be good ground by weds
I’m inclined to agree but I think I read somewhere that it would only run if the ground was on the softer side.
Favourites I think will win (Grade 1 Only):
Melon
Altior
Vroum Vroum Mag
Douvan
Carter McKay
Yorkhill
Un De Sceaux
Death DutyFavourites I think will be beaten (Grade 1 only)
Buveur Dair
Neon Wolf
Might Bite
UnowhatImeanharry
Defi Du Seuil
Cue CardFavs to win:
Altior
Douvan
UNWMH
Yorkhill
Might Bite
Djakadam (ohh he is not fav.. yet)Altior, Douvan, Unowhatimeanharry & Defi Du Seuil look pretty bomb-proof. Melon might not even go off favourite in the Supreme so you’re not putting your neck on the line opposing him, but a shorty I’ll take on is Death Duty in the Albert Bartlett as I think the opposition is pretty decent (Wholestone, West Approach, Augusta Kate).
I’m unsure about Death Duty. Part of me is tempted to back him as I’m inclined to believe the trainer and that he’s the second coming, and part of me thinks that he’s a soft ground plodder who will be exposed by the more electric gears of some of the others on the better cheltenham ground.
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