Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

Home Forums Archive Topics Cheltenham 2017 Which short priced favs can be taken on/backed?

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  • #1290302
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Off the top of my head you have

    Melon Supreme

    Altoir Arkle

    Neon Wolf Neptune

    Might Bite RSA

    Douvan Queen Mum

    Unowhatimeanharry Stayers

    Yorkhill JLT

    Death Duty Albert Bartlett

    And that one in the Triumph who’s name I can’t remember

    There are others I probably haven’t mentioned but which of these do you think are the most vulnerable?

    Personally it would be might bite in the RSA, because most of his best form is on flat tracks, and Neon Wolf as I feel he’s a “media darling” and faces some formidable rivals like Finian’s Oscar

    It also wouldn’t suprise me if yorkhill was opposed on the day, given the jumping concerns, and it wouldn’t be the biggest ever shock if Altoir or Douvan were turned over, I’m unconvinced that anything running over two miles at cheltenham over fences, at the pace they go, can ever be described as a banker, and certainly think it would be madness to bet long odds on

    Anything you’ll be looking to take on/lump the house on?

    #1290305
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 98

    I’m happy to take on Uknowwhatimeanharry, Yorkhill and Death Duty.

    I fancy a horse against each – Jezki, Politologue and Monalee.

    #1290320
    Jasolong
    Participant
    • Total Posts 502

    Back – altior douvan VVM yanworth UN de sceaux

    Lay – defi de Seoul death duty

    #1290323
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2369

    There will be arguements for and against for every single one of these, no matter how strong a fav altior douvan etc someone will be opposing so your basically asking who would we bet my take on it is

    Douvan and altior win if they get round

    Yorkhill will probably win IF he gets round, wouldnt back him at these prices for that risk

    Ukwimh should win the stayers on all known form, jezki cole harden live outsiders

    Might bite is opposable but if ADO is whats second in the market, then its going to be a poor race have bigger prices on most of them but not confident on any, coney island was the one.

    Death duty is opposable because of the type of race the AB is, class horse in the race

    Defi du seul Will probably win, wouldnt back at the price now

    Melon is opposable on form but not on willies comments, at 4/1 id still oppose.

    Neon wolf, will win either novice race

    #1290331
    thehorsesmouththehorsesmouth
    Participant
    • Total Posts 5488

    Back Yorkhill, will probably take on the rest.

    #1290332
    charlie87charlie87
    Participant
    • Total Posts 801

    I would take on Melon, Neon Wolf, Might Bite and Death Duty. Head in the WO market with Altior and Douvan. Yorkhill and UKWIMH absolute bankers.

    Melon
    Altoir
    Neon Wolf
    Might Bite
    Douvan
    Unowhatimeanharry
    Yorkhill
    Death Duty

    #1290339
    stevecautionstevecaution
    Blocked
    • Total Posts 8280

    People laughed at me when I said Altior was still value at 1/3 for the Arkle.

    We know Yorkhill isn’t running and I believe Altior should be 1/8. I am not sure I would even offer that if I were the bookie. He’s 1/5 in places now and seems certain to face the next best thing to a walkover come the day. He arrives rated 1 lb more than Sprinter Sacre in his year and does not meet anything like the calibre of Cue Card and Menorah, who took Sprinter Sacre on in vain in the Arkle.

    Altior was a fair bit better than Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, so it’s not the biggest shock that he is so highly rated, so early in his career. Only fall or injury can prevent him from rolling up the hill a long way clear.

    Similarly, Douvan looks a lock. Altior and Un De Sceaux seem unlikely to turn up, so Fox Norton will be next in the betting on the day. Tizzard’s horse is talented enough but was put well in his place by Altior. If Fox Norton were my horse I would go Ryanair, rather than run for second in the Queen Mum but some owners seem obsessed with trying the impossible, so he’ll probably end up chasing Douvan home at a suitably remote distance.

    I will be opposing the following favourites/close to favourites:-

    Supreme Novices Melon
    JLT Yorkhill
    Champion Hurdle Yanworth
    Neptune Neon Wolf
    Gold Cup Cue Card
    Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag
    Mares Novices Let’s Dance

    These are all too short in my opinion. I am also against Limini in the Champion Hurdle, Bouver D’Air in the same race and Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Un De Sceaux is getting too short in the Ryanair at 5/2 now so he may be a lay. I thought he was a fair price at 4/1-9/2 but not if he reaches 2/1 or less.

    I have an ante-post roll up on Altior, Uknowwhatimeanharry, Finian’s Oscar and Death Duty (in Arkle, Stayers, Neptune and Albert Bartlett) It’s been a while since I landed one of them, namely 2003, when I had Back In Front, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate. Oh Happy days :good:

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1290340
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 98

    People laughed at me when I said Altior was still value at 1/3 for the Arkle.

    We know Yorkhill isn’t running and I believe Altior should be 1/8. I am not sure I would even offer that if I were the bookie. He’s 1/5 in places now and seems certain to face the next best thing to a walkover come the day. He arrives rated 1 lb more than Sprinter Sacre in his year and does not meet anything like the calibre of Cue Card and Menorah, who took Sprinter Sacre on in vain in the Arkle.

    Altior was a fair bit better than Sprinter Sacre over hurdles, so it’s not the biggest shock that he is so highly rated, so early in his career. Only fall or injury can prevent him from rolling up the hill a long way clear.

    Similarly, Douvan looks a lock. Altior and Un De Sceaux seem unlikely to turn up, so Fox Norton will be next in the betting on the day. Tizzard’s horse is talented enough but was put well in his place by Altior. If Fox Norton were my horse I would go Ryanair, rather than run for second in the Queen Mum but some owners seem obsessed with trying the impossible, so he’ll probably end up chasing Douvan home at a suitably remote distance.

    I will be opposing the following favourites/close to favourites:-

    Supreme Novices Melon
    JLT Yorkhill
    Champion Hurdle Yanworth
    Neptune Neon Wolf
    Gold Cup Cue Card
    Mares Hurdle Vroum Vroum Mag
    Mares Novices Let’s Dance

    These are all too short in my opinion. I am also against Limini in the Champion Hurdle, Bouver D’Air in the same race and Djakadam in the Gold Cup. Un De Sceaux is getting too short in the Ryanair at 5/2 now so he may be a lay. I thought he was a fair price at 4/1-9/2 but not if he reaches 2/1 or less.

    I have an ante-post roll up on Altior, Uknowwhatimeanharry, Finian’s Oscar and Death Duty (in Arkle, Stayers, Neptune and Albert Bartlett) It’s been a while since I landed one of them, namely 2003, when I had Back In Front, Azertyuiop, Moscow Flyer, Baracouda and Best Mate. Oh Happy days :good:

    I get you, but I wouldn’t take 1/8 on a horse to get around. It only take for him to misjudge one, stumble or even have one come down in front of him. I think he is all class, I think he will win but value… I’m not sure about.

    #1290341
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.

    Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.

    You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it

    #1290343
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 98

    Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.

    Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.

    You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it

    If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?

    #1290344
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2369

    Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.

    Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.

    You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it

    The only one id back at the current odds is acapella bourgeois based on his last run, has ADO done that? No,
    has might bite? Was about to
    Look at the price difference

    #1290345
    thejudge1thejudge1
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2254

    Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.

    Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.

    You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it

    If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?

    Yeah maybe. People have this pegged as a soft ground slogger but it’s possible that it just took a leap forward last time. I don’t think it will have a problem with good ground at all. Well it had better not because the sun is pouring down and think it will be good ground by weds :-)

    #1290346
    Funkmaster Flex
    Participant
    • Total Posts 98

    Interesting thoughts. Starting to think Might bite is the worst favourite of the lot, as don’t see him relishing the hill at all and won’t be able to win the race before that stage I think. Even if he had stood up at Kempton he would have basically won a race that has a poor correlation to the RSA. Bit of a controversial thing to say about a 5-2 shot, but just can’t see him winning.

    Problem is what do you take him on with. Not convinced about Alpha Des Obeaux at all, don’t think he’s big enough for fences and he bled last time. In general the staying division looks quite weak. Can see an upset in this race.

    You’re probably right Steve about Altoir being a steering job, we will see. I think that’s one of the arguments for not creating these races like the JLT, is it’s detracted massively from the Arkle. Put Yorkhill in the race and it has a completely different complexion to it

    If it rains, Acapella Bourgeois?

    Yeah maybe. People have this pegged as a soft ground slogger but it’s possible that it just took a leap forward last time. I don’t think it will have a problem with good ground at all. Well it had better not because the sun is pouring down and think it will be good ground by weds :-)

    I’m inclined to agree but I think I read somewhere that it would only run if the ground was on the softer side.

    #1290349
    VautourVautour
    Participant
    • Total Posts 680

    Favourites I think will win (Grade 1 Only):

    Melon
    Altior
    Vroum Vroum Mag
    Douvan
    Carter McKay
    Yorkhill
    Un De Sceaux
    Death Duty

    Favourites I think will be beaten (Grade 1 only)

    Buveur Dair
    Neon Wolf
    Might Bite
    UnowhatImeanharry
    Defi Du Seuil
    Cue Card

    #1290354
    hayper
    Participant
    • Total Posts 56

    Favs to win:

    Altior
    Douvan
    UNWMH
    Yorkhill
    Might Bite
    Djakadam (ohh he is not fav.. yet)

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