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So far so good with the 2 ante post I have for this, which makes a change as it’s
been a pretty disastrous year for my ante post bets this year, most arrived with
a sicky from their doc
The Young Master (33s) and Le Mercurey (66s) are still there, but I’m going to
take a chance that that FOXROCK takes his chance in this rather
than the Irish National. Reports suggest that the Irish may be the most likely,
but Ted Walsh has indicated that Barry Connell (owner) has mentioned that “if it
were going to be a very dry April then Barry may be tempted to run in Liverpool”.
Looking at the long range forecast over the next 16 days, there’s rain on Monday,
and a little forecast on Wednesday, but it looks pretty dry and sunny from then on.He looks a promising type who is very well thought of, winning his last 4 Hunters
Steeplechases, the last 2 at long odds on (On The Fringe behind). If he’s thought
to be better on good ground, and he has managed his last 4 on soft/heavy, then he
could be very decent. I’m sure Ted Walsh would love to have Katy (who’s ridden all
4 wins on him) have another chance of winning a National after coming close with
Seabass a few years back. He’s 25/1 now, but if they do indicate he will take his
chance he won’t be that price on the day. It’s a chance, but I’m giving it a go
A not so good update on FOXTROT. It’s a bit confusing, Ted Walsh earlier mentioned
that Foxrock’s owner, Barry Connell, might be tempted to go for the National if there
was a very dry April. It looked like there wasn’t much rain forecast and I hoped he
would take his chance. This morning I read that Connell was quoted as saying “I think
the only thing that might make us change our minds (of not running in the Irish version),
is if it looked like it would come up soft in Aintree”. He’s drifted quite a bit on the
exchanges and I’m less confident of him taking his chance. Someone had got their wires
crossed, or at the least been misquoted. I’ve stuck my neck out, so all I can hope now is
that a few freak showers hit Aintree. If your money’s not down, I’d tread warily
You’re right Steve, Stan James are currently working to a bigger over-round in the Grand National judged by oddschecker. They’re only joint top price on 10 of the 58 horses @ 66/1 or shorter… Every one of those 10 are top priced almost across the board, so not sticking their neck out on anything.
Value Is EverythingYou’re right Steve, Stan James are currently working to a bigger over-round in the Grand National judged by oddschecker. They’re only joint top price on 10 of the 58 horses @ 66/1 or shorter… Every one of those 10 are top priced almost across the board, so not sticking their neck out on anything.
I just find Stan James to be the worst for going really short early doors. Of course they need to take any liabilities into account but I am doubtful they take a lot of money so far from the races and it’s not as if they were the original stand out price in most cases.
I was looking at the Derby betting last night and Stan James are shortest of the lot on Churchill at 4/1. That’s awful in my opinion, even with a lack of strong opposition. Hand on heart I can’t see any reason why he is any more likely to get the trip than Gleneagles. Both horses look milers to me, their style of winning is similar. If anything I think Gleneagles was more tractable for a turn of foot.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
He did me a proper turn last year, but unfortunately, Vic’s Canvas has met with a minor setback, and has been scratched.
Shame about Vics Canvas; I was pretty sure he would have been placed again. The only horse I really fancy to surprise everyone is Just a Par; can’t bring myself to back all of the really fancied ones having not backed them earlier [other than the Russell horse]. TYM is bugging me, though; I wish I’d backed him ages ago but it’s always stuck in my head that he’s not bred for extreme distances.
I hope they retire Vic’s now moe, he’s getting on, and doesn’t owe them anything.
I’ve got Just A Par in my “book”, but I’m not convinced he’s one for Aintree, and he might be worth bearing in mind for Sandown again. I think he’s off to the sales before Aintree, and he’ll surely be National bound anyway, as he’s surely appeal to someone who’s wanting a National Runner.
I bet TYM last year Moe, and wasn’t blown away with him in The Becher, he must step up in a big way from that. He’s another who appeals for Sandown again.
I’ve placed my first NRNB bet £100ew on Ballynagour at 66/1.
Reasons for my fancy:
He was very eye catching in last years race, making good headway from the back before unseating when tanking behind rule the world. He’s 9 pound lower this year and running off 10-10.
Loves aintree.
Last year Tom scu picked him over soll & VR
He loves good ground and comes alive in the spring. His form doesn’t worry me as he is clearly a spring horse. I think he will stay the trip and run into a place if he stays on his feet.
66/1 is massive for horse which used to have a touch of class at grade 1 level.
I actually noted Ballynagour down as one to watch with this race in mind after last year’s run and his performance in the Summer National at Uttoxeter was really quite eye catching. His form just fell off a cliff after that though and thus my enthusiasm petered out.
I always have on the day outsider bets and he’ll certainly make the argument with Tenor Nivernais, Perfect Candidate, Rogue Angel and my old friend Saint Are…
He bled during one race I believe…[that was last December; his form had nosedived prior to that though, hadn’t it…difficult to see him improve now]. I’ve kept an eye on him since he ran quite well at Wetherby but I think I’ll have to give up on him albeit having had a small ew on him when the weights came out]
…I can never ignore dear old Saint Are…even if he ran with a blindfold on I think I’d still have to back him…
After the next few days the forecast looks pretty dry in the run up to the meeting so ground may favour the quicker types than the old plodders-Blaklion is currently on my radar.
Ballynagour is very much on my radar too, and I added him to my book earlier. He was a strong fancy for The Midlands National for me, but he didn’t make it. I said then that he’d be of interest for any race this spring, and noted, as also observed by ATP, that he was going very well in last years race before a very soft unseat.
The bleeding is a concern, but I just think he is very well treated, and I’d be surprised if he’s a spent force yet. I’d tend to believe his form of last summer is a true reflection of his ability.
He was going to be my day of the race bet last year, but I switched him at the eleventh hour.
Another outsider I’m coming round to is Bless The Wings, and I’ve also added him today as well. Rarely runs a bad race, and went agonisingly close in The Irish National last year, and showed he was as good as ever at The Festival in The Cross Country behind Cause of Causes. He’s got plenty of miles on the clock, but the hussle and bussle of this race will not phase him, he’s from a top yard, who landed this with Silver Birch, who went via The Cross Country, and quite simply, he is not a 100-1 chance. That is a ridiculous price, though the 66’s NRNB makes more sense, as he still needs 8 to come out.
I wish that Knock House could sneak in here, but the chances of that look slim. It has not stopped me betting him at 66-1 and that was an easy decision with NRNB now widely available.
I do not think for a moment that he will ever be labelled a model of consistency but I do expect him to improve for the faster ground. I have bet him for the last 2 renewals of The Kim Muir, though he didn’t appear at Cheltenham this season. He was a bit of an unlucky fourth in that race last year. He was badly hampered, and his chance seemed gone after that, though he was eventually brought back into the race and he did well to get 4th.
I am hoping that he is a horse for next years grand National.
I am not one to go mad antepost but I have bet 2 here. Both of the horses are available at bigger odds but I am quick strict with myself and I like to take advantage of NRNB
I have bet Raz De Maree at 40-1. I think he was better than ever this season and that improvement should negate the worry that the ground might not be at his optimum. I am not concerned about the ground at all for him and my main concern would be that he didn’t appear to jump very well in 2014, before he flew home to finish 8th. I am pinning my hopes on him being as good as he has ever been this season and I loved his run behind Native River at Chepstow.
I also like the path taken by Houblon Des Obeaux and I have bet him at 40-1. I just worry a little now about the ground for him, but my money is down now
Second and last bet for this years national
Measureofmydreams £100ew 66/1 NRNB with skybet
Reasons for my fancy-
Previous Strong Irish form beating noble endeavour and 1 length down when Black hurclues fell at the last.
Ran a good third in the four miler beating Vieux Lion Rouge (current 10 fav) and 6 length s behind this year gold cup 2nd and third at Cheltenham.
Noel Meade horses are running reasonably well.
Ultima was a good prep run, he ran on when he was being ridden and then faded. Needed the run
Has nearly bottom weight and a nine year old.
66/1 is to big and I think there is more to come. Jumping is a concern but National is a lottery and anything might happen.
So my two for this year against the field:
Measure of my dreams 66/1 ew NRNB
Ballynagour 66/1 ew NRNBHappy punting
I think anyone would have to be a little cautious about Ballynagour given his record but he has been given his fair chance by the handicapper. Personally I’m pretty sure my first bet in the race will be Definitely Red and I dare say I shan’t be the only one. He’s been in monstrous form this season and looks like he’d get every inch of the trip round Aintree. He jumps, he travels and is well in after his latest victory.
I always have four against the field, each way, for this. I don’t have a gret record with winners (Comply Or Die in 2008, erm, and that’s it), but I usually get a placed horse or two.
Went in on three before the weights came out. Don Poli ended up being a victim of O’Leary’s massive strop, which I think was just cutting off one’s nose to spite one’s face, but there you have it. I also went on The Young Master, a horse I’ve always thought can win a big one one day (although that one day may have been last year’s Artist Formerly Known As The Whitbread, but we will see) at 33s, while I couldn’t not have a go on One For Arthur at 40s after he *AFTERTIMING ALERT* did me a favour in the Classic Chase.
Have had a look and decided to have some fun with a couple of horses who both stood out as way too big (IMHO) at 50s. Saint Are blatantly loves Aintree, a lot, and he seems to have been pretty much overlooked this year. Certainly the news that Davy Russell rides is rather encouraging.
Also thought that I’d five Houblon Des Obeaux a go. Looks like he’ll absolutely flimmin’ love the trip – has been staying on well at the end of some relatively long chases as of late, and he’s always had a little bit of a touch of class to him, and he’s comfortably low (but still guaranteed an entry) in the weights.
Of course, it’s somehow inevitable that at least one of my four will be pulled out, in which case my substitute list includes, in no real order
Just A Par
Bishops Road
Maggio
The Last Samuri
Blaklion
VincenteBlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
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