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The fences are Roccos only achilles heel Ginger, but if he can jump round Cheltenham he can jump round Aintree. Price is gone now though, given he can race a little off the pace and the proximity to the big day. I’m on both him and MOT already but wouldn’t go back in again at 12s. Rightful fav though no doubt.
Yeah, looks worthty favourite to me milbear, and I wouldn’t be too concerned about jumping. Always been very keen on him, and I think he’s a player, though I think there’s a very outside chance they could go to Fairyhouse with him as well. I’m hoping MOT still goes here, but the market doesn’t say so.
I’ve topped up on Lord Scoundrel to 190’s for this. Trainer stated he wouldn’t be going to Aintree, and was Irish National bound. He survived the last forfeit stage though, when O’Leary took half of his out, and with Aintree coming before Fairyhouse this year, it did seem strange to keep him in. Next forfeit stage is Tuesday, and I’ll know my fate then, but thought he was worth the risk at those prices.
An encouraging run from Houblon Des Obeaux yesterday means all is not lost with my shortlist, though at this point in time I’m tempted to replace the o and r with an i!
Tour Des Champs: withdrawn
More Of That: unlikely runner?
O’faolains Boy: pulled up last two runs
Houblon Des Obeaux: depends which horse turns up on the day!
Vieux Lion Rouge: favourite!So I’m pleased enough to have been on Vieux Lion Rouge before the price plummeted, but i haven’t much in the way of ‘insurance’. I’ll probably have another look after the next forfeit stage…
Laid off some of the 65 & 60 bets on Cause of Causes and swapped it over to 365’s NRNB @ 18’s. Good offer with 5 places
So far so good with the 2 ante post I have for this, which makes a change as it’s
been a pretty disastrous year for my ante post bets this year, most arrived with
a sicky from their doc
The Young Master (33s) and Le Mercurey (66s) are still there, but I’m going to
take a chance that that FOXROCK takes his chance in this rather
than the Irish National. Reports suggest that the Irish may be the most likely,
but Ted Walsh has indicated that Barry Connell (owner) has mentioned that “if it
were going to be a very dry April then Barry may be tempted to run in Liverpool”.
Looking at the long range forecast over the next 16 days, there’s rain on Monday,
and a little forecast on Wednesday, but it looks pretty dry and sunny from then on.He looks a promising type who is very well thought of, winning his last 4 Hunters
Steeplechases, the last 2 at long odds on (On The Fringe behind). If he’s thought
to be better on good ground, and he has managed his last 4 on soft/heavy, then he
could be very decent. I’m sure Ted Walsh would love to have Katy (who’s ridden all
4 wins on him) have another chance of winning a National after coming close with
Seabass a few years back. He’s 25/1 now, but if they do indicate he will take his
chance he won’t be that price on the day. It’s a chance, but I’m giving it a go
Latest news before full forfeit list is revealed.
Jonjo has taken out Minella Rocco, who’ll be trained for next years Gold Cup, and also Shutthefrontdoor, but More of That has been confirmed as heading for The National.
Latest news before full forfeit list is revealed.
Jonjo has taken out Minella Rocco,
Bugger, was on him at 33s
Latest news before full forfeit list is revealed.
Jonjo has taken out Minella Rocco, who’ll be trained for next years Gold Cup, and also Shutthefrontdoor, but More of That has been confirmed as heading for The National.
Not unexpected, Minella Rocco is in the same mould as same connections Synchronised, who met his end at Aintree. Runs as though an out and out test of stamina should suit, but does not jump well enough. MR is also younger than S, so has more scope to improve next year.
I backed More Of That for the Gold Cup at 50/1. Like a lot of Jonjo’s JP horses doesn’t jump that well either but was the first 9+ year old home there. Time is running out for him to win a big one over fences and it now seems Gold Cup is beyond him. Not convinced he’s crying out for this trip though, more a 2m4f to 3m2f horse than 3m+. Good ground will be in his favour, although sometimes regarded as a Cheltenham specialist.
Value Is EverythingI thought Minella Rocco was desperately short at as low as 8/1. These “He’s 10 lbs well in” types always seem to attract cash but never prove as well in as first perceived. Hard lines for those with the foresight to have taken big odds but once a horse is about 12/1 or lower you should really be waiting to the day of the race or looking for NRNB
AS ever, Stan James are the worst price in the village on the favourite, with Vieux Lion Rouge sitting at a disgraceful 8/1. They are also the shortest on the Lincoln favourite Morando at a miserly 5/1. If you want a £10 Spring Double on those two with Stan James you will get £540 back but last night you could have placed the same bet at 12/1 and 8/1 elsewhere for a return of £1170. Paraphrasing their own adverts, Stan or James? Which one is the tight arse?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
AS ever, Stan James are the worst price in the village on the favourite, with Vieux Lion Rouge sitting at a disgraceful 8/1. They are also the shortest on the Lincoln favourite Morando at a miserly 5/1. If you want a £10 Spring Double on those two with Stan James you will get £540 back but last night you could have placed the same bet at 12/1 and 8/1 elsewhere for a return of £1170. Paraphrasing their own adverts, Stan or James? Which one is the tight arse?
Bookmakers will always have horses shorter that they have laid at bigger prices or believing a better chance than other bookies. With VLR SJ are probably right imo. Only stamina a possible negative.
Value Is EverythingAS ever, Stan James are the worst price in the village on the favourite, with Vieux Lion Rouge sitting at a disgraceful 8/1. They are also the shortest on the Lincoln favourite Morando at a miserly 5/1. If you want a £10 Spring Double on those two with Stan James you will get £540 back but last night you could have placed the same bet at 12/1 and 8/1 elsewhere for a return of £1170. Paraphrasing their own adverts, Stan or James? Which one is the tight arse?
Bookmakers will always have horses shorter that they have laid at bigger prices or believing a better chance than other bookies. With VLR SJ are probably right imo. Only stamina a possible negative.
They are NRNB as well so that must count for something as well.
For info, these were the scratched horses today……..
Alary
Minella Rocco
Lord Scoundrel
Road To Riches
Sausalito Sunrise
Carole’s Destrier
Junction Fourteen
Vivaldi Collonges
Shutthefrontdoor
As De Mee
Seventh Sky
Hadrians Approach
Out Sam
Goulanes
Mountain King
Killer CrowCan’t believe this race is only 2 and a half weeks away, crept up on me! I’m still sweet on The Last Samuri but based on the Irish domination at Cheltenham I think I’d better add some back up, particularly Elliott’s horses as they are unstoppable at present.
That said, I do think Blaklion has a good run in him, just hope the yard’s form picks up a bit (they did have a winner on Sunday at least). Fehily is a great jockey in good form too so the fact he takes the ride is a plus.
“My Number 1 bet is Minella rocco at 44’s who rather fortuitously beat ‘Native’ at Cheltenham in the always under-estimated 4 mile National Hunt Chase.”
Having been kicked in the balls at Cheltenham,I now feel as though my scrotum has been removed with a rusty penknife..TAPK will never surrender and still goes to War with One for Arthur at 40/1 thanks to Joe and More of that at the measley odds of 1000/1 thanks to Bobby….If there’s any justice in this world chaps eh?
GINGER wrote
Bookmakers will always have horses shorter that they have laid at bigger prices or believing a better chance than other bookies. With VLR SJ are probably right imo. Only stamina a possible negative.They are NRNB as well so that must count for something as well. BOTCHY wrote
Regarding Sid James, Caution wrote:-
Others go 10/1 NRNB so no need to go 8/1 for that concession. 8/1 is awful value. If you can’t stick your neck out a bit in the Grand National then when can you?
5/1 for the Lincoln is abysmal value. So many factors to consider and anyone taking 5/1 Morando at this stage should be certified insane.
I don’t give two hoots how short they get because I was on both early doors, it’s not about me but the people faced with these derisory odds now. I have backed Vieux Lion Rouge at 28/1 and Morando at 14/1. The Pipe horse enhanced his claims but Morando could be sitting in a stable with three legs and playing air guitar with the missing one for all we know. 5/1? Old William Hill must be turning in his grave, Ebeneezer Scrooge tight fistedness in two of the biggest bookies benefits of the season.
I like Vieux Lion Rouge but stamina the only possible negative? I am worried about the 30 fences and 39 other runners myself. The owners should be worried about me being the kiss of death. The Last Samuri was almost certainly stopped by the two stone penalty of my wager at 33/1 last year
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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