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I think Le Mercurey would be better off going for the Bowl this year. That race looks made for him.
I think Le Mercurey would be better off going for the Bowl this year. That race looks made for him.
If it came up soft,i’d be interested. Nicholls quoted that he’s better in small fields which would be a concern. National – no thanks
I think Le Mercurey would be better off going for the Bowl this year. That race looks made for him.
If it came up soft,i’d be interested. Nicholls quoted that he’s better in small fields which would be a concern. National – no thanks
I can see where you’re coming from Nenni, but If Native River runs a blinder
In the Gold Cup I think Nicholls might think that he may not get the chance
to run him again in the race )carrying 10-9, considering he finished only 3
lengths behind that one last time out. Phil Smith could have bumped him up
quite a bit for that, but has given him a good chance running off the same
mark.Jaymo, I must have missed Nicholls mentioning he was better in small fields,
I’m surprised to hear that, he doesn’t strike me like that. He obviously
considers he could do well here, it was encouraging that only a week ago he
stated………..“Vicente and Le Mercurey look like being my two my main contenders for this year’s Grand National following the unveiling of the weights in London in midweek.
Racing anoraks will tell you that history is against Le Mercurey because he is only seven years old but I’ve never paid much attention to those sort of statistics. In my view records are there to be broken. That has always been the challenge.
Le Mercurey ran a blinder at Newbury on Saturday, chasing home Native River. He was beaten three lengths in receipt of 1lb from a horse who could well win the Gold Cup.
So I was relieved the handicapper Phil Smith left him on the same mark in the National. If Le Mercurey runs again before Aintree it will be in a conditions race at Kelso on March 4th.”As I mentioned in the piece I wrote about Le Murcurey on page 12, Nicholls has not been scared to throw in a 7 year old in the past, when he has thought they were good enough.
I think Le Mercurey has a touch of class about him and if he is as good as I hope, he
won’t get the chance again to run with the weight he’s been lucky to get in with this
year. There’s still some 50s about, I think that’s huge for a horse with his potential.First Forefit Stage tomorrow, but Dromnea has already been scratched, though he was 85 on the list.
I think Le Mercurey would be better off going for the Bowl this year. That race looks made for him.
If it came up soft,i’d be interested. Nicholls quoted that he’s better in small fields which would be a concern. National – no thanks
Jaymo, I must have missed Nicholls mentioning he was better in small fields,
I’m surprised to hear that.Nicholls got interviewed on RUK before the Newbury run. Small field on a flat track on soft going is his bag. On a positive note,he then came out at the Grand National weights evening and said he had no doubts about Le Mercurys stamina for the national. Personally,i cant be a player after the earlier comment. Good luck though G
I am on ante-post on One For Arthur, The Last Samuri and Vieux Lion Rouge. I felt all three would start a good bit shorter come the day of the race.
The Last Samuri is not as well in this year but he must have a sound chance and hopefully we will see him this weekend. One For Arthur has course form and saw it out well last time out. Vieux Lion Rouge was 7th last year and seemed to do his best work late on at Haydock last time, his experience of the fences and general improving profile suggest he should be right there, although I have heard some say he won’t get to the elbow in front because he’ll run out of juice.
I can’t understand the position of Ucello Conti in the betting. I did him last year at 40/1 and that was sort of last chance saloon for me with him. He’s still a maiden over fences and I’ll pass at half last year’s odds. I have seen plenty love for Blaklion but I feel he was outstayed by Vieux Lion Rouge last time and the National Fences may not suit the smallish Blaklion.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am on ante-post on One For Arthur, The Last Samuri and Vieux Lion Rouge. I felt all three would start a good bit shorter come the day of the race.
I have seen plenty love for Blaklion but I feel he was outstayed by Vieux Lion Rouge last time and the National Fences may not suit the smallish Blaklion.Totally agree with your thoughts on the Grand National trial. The further they go,the further Vieux Lion Rouge beats Blacklion. I’ve had VLR onside after it kindly filled my pockets in the Beacher Chase earlier in the season. Its a bit of a weather watch for Lucindas horse. I think he definately wants to get his toe in which would be a massive concern with a dry run up. A horse that gets plenty of chat on this forum is Cause of Causes. I think this horse has been a handicap shark all its career. He’ll get the trip and drying ground will be a positive. I’ve parted with a few quid @33s
I’m amazed 33’s is still available for him Jaymo, I reckon he’s still way ahead of his mark. I’d expect another big Cheltenham from him, and he’ll be a lot shorter afterwards if all goes to plan.
I think Le Mercurey would be better off going for the Bowl this year. That race looks made for him.
If it came up soft,i’d be interested. Nicholls quoted that he’s better in small fields which would be a concern. National – no thanks
Jaymo, I must have missed Nicholls mentioning he was better in small fields,
I’m surprised to hear that.Nicholls got interviewed on RUK before the Newbury run. Small field on a flat track on soft going is his bag. On a positive note,he then came out at the Grand National weights evening and said he had no doubts about Le Mercurys stamina for the national. Personally,i cant be a player after the earlier comment. Good luck though G
Thanks for that Jaymo, I missed the small fields comment. He’s an outsider, still some 50s
around, but I think at that price he’s worth the risk. Good luck whatever you decide to
plump for
How the field looks after the first elimination stage. Remember those on the same weight will be decided by their Official Ratings on race day. :D
1Carlingford Lough (IRE) 11 11 10
2 The Last Samuri (IRE) 9 11 9
3 Alary (FR) 7 11 8
4 Alelchi Inois (FR) 9 11 7
5 Minella Rocco (IRE) 7 11 6
6 More of That (IRE) 9 11 5
7 Shantou Flyer (IRE) 7 11 4
8 Lord Scoundrel (IRE) 8 11 4
9 Perfect Candidate (IRE) 10 11 4
10 Saphir du Rheu (FR) 8 11 4
11 Road To Riches (IRE) 10 11 3
12Sausalito Sunrise (IRE) 9 11 3
13 Roi des Francs (FR) 8 11 2
14 Carole’s Destrier (GB) 9 11 2
15 Foxrock (IRE) 9 11 2
16 Wounded Warrior (IRE) 8 11 1
17 Wonderful Charm (FR) 9 11 1
18 Tenor Nivernais (FR) 10 11 0
19 Blaklion (GB) 8 11 0
20 Drop Out Joe (GB) 9 11 0
21 Le Mercurey (FR) 7 10 13
22 Maggio (FR) 12 10 12
23 The Young Master (GB) 8 10 12
24 Cause of Causes (USA) 9 10 12
25 Regal Encore (IRE) 9 10 12
26 Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 8 10 11
27 Definitly Red (IRE) 8 10 11
28 Ucello Conti (FR) 9 10 11
29 Double Shuffle (IRE) 7 10 11
30 Houblon des Obeaux (FR) 10 10 11
31 Pleasant Company (IRE) 9 10 11
32 One For Arthur (IRE) 8 10 10
33 Ballynagour (IRE) 11 10 10
34 Junction Fourteen (IRE) 8 10 10
35 Vivaldi Collonges (FR) 8 10 10
36 O’Faolains Boy (IRE) 10 10 10
37 Highland Lodge (IRE) 11 10 10
38 Bishops Road (IRE) 9 10 9
39 Vics Canvas (IRE) 14 10 9
40 Lord Windermere (IRE) 11 10 9
41 Ziga Boy (FR) 8 10 9
42 Saint Are (FR) 11 10 9
43 Vicente (FR) 8 10 9
44 Measureofmydreams (IRE) 9 10 8
45 Raz de Maree (FR) 12 10 8
46 Stellar Notion (IRE) 9 10 8
47 Just A Par (IRE) 10 10 8
48 Rogue Angel (IRE) 9 10 7
49 Shutthefrontdoor (IRE) 10 10 7
50 Pendra (IRE) 9 10 7
51 Cocktails At Dawn (GB) 9 10 7
52 As de Mee (FR) 7 10 7
53 Seventh Sky (GER) 10 10 7
54 The Romford Pele (IRE) 10 10 6
55 Thunder And Roses (IRE) 9 10 6
56 Gas Line Boy (IRE) 11 10 6
57 Goodtoknow (GB) 9 10 6
58 La Vaticane (FR) 8 10 5
59 Doctor Harper (IRE) 9 10 5
60 Bless The Wings (IRE) 12 10 4
61Knock House (IRE) 8 10 3
62 Hadrian’s Approach (IRE) 10 10 2
63 Sambremont (FR) 7 10 1
64 Potters Cross (GB) 10 10 1
65 Benbens (IRE) 12 10 1
66 Straidnahanna (IRE) 8 10 1
67 Viva Steve (IRE) 9 10 1
68Polidam (FR) 8 10 0
69 Lamb Or Cod (IRE) 10 10 0
70 Milansbar (IRE) 10 10 0
71 Cloudy Too (IRE) 11 10 0
72 Vyta du Roc (FR) 8 9 13
73 Streets of Promise (IRE) 8 9 13
74 Beeves (IRE) 10 9 12
75 Royale Knight (GB) 11 9 12
76 Out Sam (GB) 8 9 11
77 Sizing Coal (IRE) 9 9 11
78 Goulanes (IRE) 11 9 11
79 Lessons In Milan (IRE) 9 9 11
80 Alfie Spinner (IRE) 12 9 11
81 Emperor’s Choice (IRE) 10 9 11
82 Mountain King (GB) 8 9 11
83 Dare To Endeavour (GB) 10 9 10
84 Silver Man (GB) 10 9 10
85 Father Edward (IRE) 8 9 10
86 Samingarry (FR) 10 9 10
87Alvarado (IRE) 12 9 9
88 Milborough (IRE) 11 9 9
89 The Crafty Butcher (IRE) 10 9 8
90 Waldorf Salad (GB) 9 9 8
91 Katenko (FR) 11 9 7
92 Federici (GB) 8 9 6
93 Gone Too Far (GB) 9 9 5
94 Racing Pulse (IRE) 8 9 5
95 Killer Crow (IRE) 8 9 4You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Well all 3 of mine stand their ground but not quite as happy as I was.
I’ve went off Measureofmydreams, and wish I was with Rogue Angel or Thunder and Roses in the Gigginstown colours, but stuck with Momd for now.
Thunder and Roses impressed me on Saturday, and I wouldn’t rule out a few pounds on him in the near future.
I’m really hoping that this Saturday O’Faolains Boy can show he’s came on a ton for his comeback run.
Still hanging in there with this lot after the forfeits, but could do with a good Cheltenham from a couple of them, as nowhere near green yet.
Cause of Causes 40’s
The Young Master 33’sDoctor Harper 1000’s
Just A Par 130’s Laid 55’s
Goodtoknow 110’s
Lord Scoundrel 170’s
More of That 550’s to 1000’s
O’Faolains Boy 70’s Laid 30’s
Pleasant Company 360’s to 380’s
Potters Cross 1000’s
Straidnahanna 500’s
The Crafty Butcher 380’s to 1000’s
Wounded Warrior 120’s
Ziga Boy 150’s to 250’sOtago Trail 250’s to 400’s Laid 60’s
The defection of Don Poli could prove to be an absolute disaster for both Empire Of Dirt and his Ryanair backers. It just depends on how much notice the owners want to take of a man who would never have run the horse in a Graded race and was prepared to get his trip wrong by two miles. Fingers crossed that they get their decision right. He has everything in his favour to win the Ryanair but if he doesn’t stay in a Gold Cup his one chance of glory will have been thrown away. Various pundits have been talking about him staying on at the end of the Irish Gold Cup so that makes him a Gold Cup horse. No it doesn’t. What they don’t say is that race was a relative speed test and Empire Of Dirt breezed around on the bridle. He travelled as well as the winner who had recently stepped up from the minimum trip but the crucial difference was Don Poli (that horse has got a lot to answer for) checked his momentum at the last. There is not a single bit of evidence that suggests Empire Of Dirt wants three and a quarter miles round Cheltenham. His class, rather than stamina, has been getting him home over three miles. It is doubtful that class will stretch out to another two furlongs. Unfortunately, we will probably see.
Am not quite as confident as you about EOD’s lack of stamina, Stilvi; but agree there are fairly serious doubts. Stands a far better chance in the Ryanair. Fingers crossed.
Value Is EverythingAm not quite as confident as you about EOD’s lack of stamina, Stilvi; but agree there are fairly serious doubts. Stands a far better chance in the Ryanair. Fingers crossed.
Yes, I wouldn’t have backed it at 50/1 if I thought he had no chance but that was an each-way bet, the 40/1 Ryanair was win only. You can line up the best horse in the race but if you don’t stay you win nothing.
I have had a few close shaves in the Gold Cup with Go Ballistic 100/1, The Fellow 50/1 and Djakadam 50/1 x 2, maybe this is the year I get it wrong and right but I would much rather see him cruising up to Un De Sceaux than coming off the bridle two out in a Gold Cup.
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