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Am on Djakadam @ 16/1. However, money for him this week probably more to do with team Tizzard’s poor form which has to be taken in to account. Time yet for things to change by Friday, but 5 of last 12 runners have been pulled up, all at single figure prices. Although some have run well and has a good place record, is 19 runners without a win (26th Feb). Chance of both Tizzard horses running poorly is more than it was 10 days ago and – if things don’t change – Mullins (who’s coming to form nicely) horse will have a far greater chance than Djakadam’s own “form” suggests.
Value Is EverythingSizing John.
I love Cue Card and will probably shed a tear if he wins.
I just like Sizing John’s profile and think it’s an open race. Will only chuck a fiver at it.
I can see More of That defying his 2 years of hell and bouncing back in this with ground in his favour. NR will try to make all but finish a gallant runner up, and Coleman will steer MOT round confidently to fight it out with Outlander. I can see Djakadam and CC falling with the frantic pace set.
I did back MR a few weeks back at 20/1 but he may lack the pace up the hill and finish just outside the placings.
This will probably be Djakadam’s year. The simple reason for that is that I haven’t backed him this year.
I had a small bet at 33/1 two years ago and right after that 2nd to Coneygree I backed him for the following season’s race at 16/1. Again, he finished 2nd but was a clear second best, just unable to match Don Cossack at the end.
I felt his chances were probably behind him but with others falling by the wayside he became likely to at least place this year. The trouble is that he’s far too short for a saver for me. I’ll just ride it out on Native River and Champagne West at 33/1 and 50/1 respectively but I am not confident of either horse winning this.
Native River would have a chance of going close but Colin Tizzard has gone stone cold at the wrong time. He is 0/27 this past fortnight and only Fox Norton has run with anything like a sign of well being this week so far. That’s a big negative for me on Native River and also Cue Card, for the stable that looked to have a lock on the race at one stage. The question now is looking more like can Tizzard get one in the frame? Not so long ago a 1-2-3 was being touted.
Twiston-Davies is also out of form, 1/33 the past fortnight and that dampens already limited enthusiasm for Bristol De Mai in my mindset.
Outlander does not excite me as much as he does some people and Sizing John got no sort of boost from Empire Of Dirt’s modest effort in the Ryanair today.
Very little seems to getting made of the Tizzard stable form with tipsters putting up Cue Card and Native River with undiminished confidence. I am smelling a year old kipper bad feeling in the air though and am keeping expectations low for Native River. You get the feeling Djakadam may go off 2/1 here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Am on Djakadam @ 16/1. However, money for him this week probably more to do with team Tizzard’s poor form which has to be taken in to account. Time yet for things to change by Friday, but 5 of last 12 runners have been pulled up, all at single figure prices. Although some have run well and has a good place record, is 19 runners without a win (26th Feb). Chance of both Tizzard horses running poorly is more than it was 10 days ago and – if things don’t change – Mullins (who’s coming to form nicely) horse will have a far greater chance than Djakadam’s own “form” suggests.
Gone in again for Djakadam @ 100/30. Had Tizzard been in better form I’d make Djakadam only with a slightly better chance than either of the Dorset duo. However, I now rate Mullins as having as good a chance of winning the Gold Cup as Team Tizzard combined. Due to their poor form. Fox Norton ran well, but he’s untypical. Althouh More Of That would still be my best result.
My 100% Book:
30.5% 9/4 Djakadam, 16% 11/2 Native River, 14.5% 6/1 Cue Card, 10% 9/1 Outlander, 10% 9/1 Sizing John, 7% 13/1 More Of That, 4% 25/1 Minella Rocco, 3% 33/1 Champagne West, 2% 50/1 Bristol De Mai, 1.25% 80/1 Saphir De Rheu, 0.75% 132/1 Tea For Two, 0.5% 200/1 Irish Cavalier, 0.5% Smad Place.Value Is EverythingThis will probably be Djakadam’s year. The simple reason for that is that I haven’t backed him this year.
I had a small bet at 33/1 two years ago and right after that 2nd to Coneygree I backed him for the following season’s race at 16/1. Again, he finished 2nd but was a clear second best, just unable to match Don Cossack at the end.
I felt his chances were probably behind him but with others falling by the wayside he became likely to at least place this year. The trouble is that he’s far too short for a saver for me. I’ll just ride it out on Native River and Champagne West at 33/1 and 50/1 respectively but I am not confident of either horse winning this.
Native River would have a chance of going close but Colin Tizzard has gone stone cold at the wrong time. He is 0/27 this past fortnight and only Fox Norton has run with anything like a sign of well being this week so far. That’s a big negative for me on Native River and also Cue Card, for the stable that looked to have a lock on the race at one stage. The question now is looking more like can Tizzard get one in the frame? Not so long ago a 1-2-3 was being touted.
Twiston-Davies is also out of form, 1/33 the past fortnight and that dampens already limited enthusiasm for Bristol De Mai in my mindset.
Outlander does not excite me as much as he does some people and Sizing John got no sort of boost from Empire Of Dirt’s modest effort in the Ryanair today.
Very little seems to getting made of the Tizzard stable form with tipsters putting up Cue Card and Native River with undiminished confidence. I am smelling a year old kipper bad feeling in the air though and am keeping expectations low for Native River. You get the feeling Djakadam may go off 2/1 here.
Didn’t see yours before I posted mine Steve; think you’ve got it pretty much spot on.
Outlander doesn’t excite me much either. Form of the Lexus isn’t great, but at least he’s improving and trainer’s in great form. Jessie isn’t in bad form either and same comments could be made of Sizing John’s form; can’t split them.Value Is EverythingThis will probably be Djakadam’s year. The simple reason for that is that I haven’t backed him this year.
I had a small bet at 33/1 two years ago and right after that 2nd to Coneygree I backed him for the following season’s race at 16/1. Again, he finished 2nd but was a clear second best, just unable to match Don Cossack at the end.
I felt his chances were probably behind him but with others falling by the wayside he became likely to at least place this year. The trouble is that he’s far too short for a saver for me. I’ll just ride it out on Native River and Champagne West at 33/1 and 50/1 respectively but I am not confident of either horse winning this.
Native River would have a chance of going close but Colin Tizzard has gone stone cold at the wrong time. He is 0/27 this past fortnight and only Fox Norton has run with anything like a sign of well being this week so far. That’s a big negative for me on Native River and also Cue Card, for the stable that looked to have a lock on the race at one stage. The question now is looking more like can Tizzard get one in the frame? Not so long ago a 1-2-3 was being touted.
Twiston-Davies is also out of form, 1/33 the past fortnight and that dampens already limited enthusiasm for Bristol De Mai in my mindset.
Outlander does not excite me as much as he does some people and Sizing John got no sort of boost from Empire Of Dirt’s modest effort in the Ryanair today.
Very little seems to getting made of the Tizzard stable form with tipsters putting up Cue Card and Native River with undiminished confidence. I am smelling a year old kipper bad feeling in the air though and am keeping expectations low for Native River. You get the feeling Djakadam may go off 2/1 here.
Your exactly right,Tizzards form has fallen right off the cliff, leaving Djakadam to probably win this by default,but can i back him at the prices – probably not. Im hoping More of That can sneak round just off the pace and hopefully ruffle a few feathers entering the straight. The horse is in apparent sparkling form at home,so at 12s,im a player
I’m sticking to my original bet BRISTOL DE MAI (even though Joe thinks he will be pulled up
).Hope you’re wrong Joe.
Drawing a line under his last run and with a bit of luck another grey will win the Gold Cup.
I really wanted Cue Card to do this but feel he might be past his best and younger horses will dictate.
Bristol De Mai at 25/1 each way..
Good luck on the last day..Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Djakadam is ridiculously short and Cue Card ridiculously long.
Djakadam is 0 from 4 at Cheltenham
He’s 0 from 7 on ground better than yielding to soft
He’s 1 from 9 in races beyond 2m 5f
He’s had flawless runs twice in the race and couldn’t win itDespite Cue Card being 3 years his elder, he is still 5lbs superior on official figures and his Festival record features 2 victories, a second to Sprinter Sacre and a jockey-error fall when tanking last year in this.
But it looks like the media on/off love affair with Mullins and Ruby will see Cue Card go off twice the price of this nought from four, one from nine, soft-ground lover.
Sheesh!!!!
For me it looks like it is between two.
OUTLANDER which I think may have been saved for this and won well in the Lexus at Christmas and at 11/1 looks the value.
CUE CARD who may be a sentimental pick but I think would have won last year but for falling. Like Joe I think Cue Card may drift in the betting and start about 6/1 which will interest me!
Bristol De Mai
Let’s start this off with a glorified Handicapper who’s probably better over shorter, at Haydock, in the mud, shall we? BDM is a decentish sort of horse who, in The Glory Years would have never been running in this, at all, ever. So I think – barring a deluge and the race being moved overnight to Haydock – I think we can rule him out. I know I’m going to.
Verdict: Nope
Champagne West
“She said” what do you think about Champagne West? I think that he’s great! I think he’s the best! Yeah, I think he’s better than Thistlecrack, I think he’s better than Douvan.” I said “Can’t you see, he only won the Thyestes? Which makes me think he’s probably not going to win this one, baby”
Verdict: He’s a glorified Handicapper who’d probably prefer it shorter. Where have we heard this one before?
Cue Card
Hurrah, he’s an actual Grade One horse! Yes, he’s 11, and the last time a horse that old won the Gold Cup, England were football world champions and – get this! – properly good music was being properly invented with Led Zeppelin and The Stooges debut albums being released that year. Whoa. But anyway, he broke his “loses when I back him, wins when I don’t” curse earlier this term in the King George, and I suspect he’ll run well enough without him winning. So I’m avoiding him in this. If he’s in with a shout coming to the last, I will be cheering him on.
Verdict: Yes, but wouldn’t it be nice if he won? It would. It would be really nice.Djakadam
Oh look it’s a glorified handicapper who…you know the drill by now. Has somehow managed to come second in two Gold Cups despite being not terribly good at all. I would say he’s ended up being the favourite by default, but that’s not true. He’s become favourite because of the sorts of people who actually spend their money on Rich Ricci scarves. Ie Mullins fanboys, who the more thoughtful of us may have hoped would have gone very quiet after the first two days (or else become Gordon Elliot fanboys) but sadly are back with a vengeance. Nope
Verdict: To quote the Cheltenham festival Facebook page “Yeh Willie is de best ya bollix Im bakin Jakaddam I lov the Prestbury Cup ruby is grate but he also delibratlee losst”. Which is ample reason to bet against. That and he’s (oh yes!) A Glorified Handicapper Who Needs Shorter.Irish Cavalier
Well, it would be nice to have a Welsh winner. Did you know that if you backed every Welsh Gold Cup runner since the race was first run, you’d make a profit?
Verdict: Not even a Glorified Handicapper. At least he gets the trio though.Minella Rocco
Had he been entered in the National? Because the only reason I can see for him running here is to give him a warm up for Aintree.
Verdict: Will have barely got going by the time the race ends.More Of That
He’s a formerly decent staying hurdler who went off as favourite for the RSA despite not having done much, then disappointed behind some mediocre horses because of a “burst vessel”. Then he came back and there were more vague and unspecified reasons for him bot doing quite as well as people hoped. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you More Of That – the Waitrose Time For Rupert
Verdict: Did you not see the bit where I compared him to Time For Rupert?Native River
He’s a Glorified Handicapper who – get this – needs FURTHER. Whoa. But in fairness, you have to respect a horse that wins the Hennessy and then lugs top weight around Chepstow to win the Welsh National. So, combined with the fact he’s against a field comprised mainly of horses who flatter to deceive and/or are old, he’s certainly the best of the British runners, at least. Would hope Tizzard’s poor run of form has been because he’s been too busy stoking this guy up.
Verdict: **** it, why not?Outlander
Ah, this is better. Proper three mile horse with a touch of class to him. Runs well, jumps well, has a stable with some great form lately, good jockey on board, some question marks over the track, but we shall see. The pick of the Irish runners, and the sort of horse who I can’t even begin to make a lamer than Douvan attempt at humour about.
Verdict: Oh go on then.Saphir Du Rheu
Hey kids, remember Paul Nicholls? Yeah, course you do. He used to win this loads. But then all his horses got old and had to retire and then the ones that replaced them got old and had to retire, and now we’re left with the sorry sight of Paul Nicholls Gold Cup runner being Saphir Du Rheu
Verdict: You know who would have won this race if he were entered now? Neptune Collenges, mate. Neptune ****** Collenges.Sizing John
Spent most of his early chasing career looking at Douvan’s arse, until connections decided it was worth him running at three miles. It was at this stage he won a Grade One, but it was only the Irish Hennessy, so I wouldn’t get too excited.
Verdict: He’s no Kempes, that’s for sure.Smad Place
Won the Hennessy last season like an absolute boss, looked set to do something here last year and ran pretty mehishly. Hasn’t been as good this year.
Verdict: Dear God, no.Tea For Two
Let’s get this out of the way first – yes, I know he’s really far better at Kempton (why wasn’t he in the Racing Plus Post Betbright Chase?) but, because I have an awfully soft spot for him, having seen his debut run over hurdles, I don’t feel like I can abandon him now. So I’ve foolishly had a bet on him
Verdict: If only!I hope you enjoyed reading this one. If you didn’t, then I want you to think about the Gold Cup that could have been, with Thistlecrack, Vautour, Coneygree, Don Cossack, Black Hercules et al racing, and then weep for what might have been.
BlueSky @pghenn.bsky.social
So don't run, just like the others always do
I don’t think the Irish form in this division is very strong, and I think the Irish Gold Cup was a poor renewal. Dickie will thrust Native River at every obstacle, pile on the pressure going out on the final circuit, burn off all bar Djakadam & Cue Card coming down the hill and then who knows? I think he’ll have enough to fend of Djakadam but if the Card is there with him 2 out then I think he’ll win and Cue the celebrations. If not the Native will power home to victory.
I think the only way that the Festival can go out on a high this year is if Cue Card wins; it really needs a Sprinter Sacre type result. Trouble is I’ll probably be walking the dog [which is what I do when England have penalty shoot outs] because I’m too scared to watch it. And I can’t even take the dog on the dog walk as she’s got corns so I’ll be walking the dog without the dog. Do I sound nervous? You bet I am…
I hope you enjoyed reading this one.
I most certainly did, sir. Chapeau!
).Hope you’re wrong Joe. 
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