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River Don Novices Hurdle

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  • #1338647
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3637

    Entries are tricky, going to tread lightly until i can shed some more light on whos a definite but will play antepost as possibly a good few opportunities to get ahead of this

    Mr whipped has been all but confirned hes going straight to cheltenham (even if he where to run i dont think it would be here) there isnt a need and that takes the fav out straight away (although this will be factored into his 9/4 price)

    Second fav mulcahys hill, although he has form on goodish ground, i almost feel that he will be kept to softer if possible, hes entered in at cheltenham for the ballymore trial (the distance he ran at LTO)and due to doncaster having a drier forecast than cheltenham factored in with the additional trip, if he runs IMO i think ittle be cheltenham, if he where to side step that and come here, id be interested

    Station master 6/1has looked at home over this sort of trip and if the front 2 dont show hes going to be significantly shorter than he is atm and ill be taking him e/w just now as hes the only one im certain will run at this stage

    Indian hawk 7/1 e/w Could be anything and i was impressed enough FTO, if he shows up he wont be this price and i feel its worthchancing, my only concern is callet mad will be suited by this race and hes probably a more suitable candidate back over 3m, LTO the trip was inadequate, will they send both? Not sure, indian hawk only has this entry whereas callet mad could goto cheltenham,ill stick with the two for now.

    Station master e/w 6/1
    Indian hawk 7/1 e/w

    Edit: any corrections needed judge let me know

    #1338825
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    Hopefully greatrex stick to what he said today in regards to mulcahys hill

    Greatrex said: “I have put Mulcahys Hill in at Cheltenham and Doncaster because the weather forecast looks favourable and he is in great form at home. I am probably leaning towards Cheltenham out of the two, as it does look likely to be soft ground. He has improved since Newbury and I think that race has made a man of him.

    #1338829
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Entries are tricky, going to tread lightly until i can shed some more light on who’s a definite but will play ante post as possibly a good few opportunities to get ahead of this.

    Mr Whipped has been all but confirmed he’s going straight to Cheltenham (even if he were to run i don’t think it would be here) there isn’t a need and that takes the fav out straight away (although this will be factored into his 9/4 price.)

    Second fav Mulcahys Hill, although he has form on goodish ground, I almost feel that he will be kept to softer if possible, he’s entered in at Cheltenham for the Ballymore trial (the distance he ran at LTO) and due to Doncaster having a drier forecast than Cheltenham factored in with the additional trip, if he runs IMO i think it’ll be Cheltenham, if he were to side step that and come here, I’d be interested.

    Station Master 6/1 has looked at home over this sort of trip and if the front 2 don’t show hes going to be significantly shorter than he is atm and I’ll be taking him e/w just now as hes the only one I’m certain will run at this stage.

    Indian Hawk 7/1 e/w could be anything and i was impressed enough FTO, if he shows up he won’t be this price and I feel it’s worth chancing, my only concern with Callet Mad is will he be suited by this race and he’s probably a more suitable candidate back over 3m, LTO the trip was inadequate, will they send both? Not sure, Indian Hawk only has this entry whereas Callet Mad could go to Cheltenham, I’ll stick with the two for now.

    Station Master e/w 6/1
    Indian Hawk 7/1 e/w

    I’ve edited them for you :mail:

    (Update: had to go back in as realized that my first edit only hinted at the size of the problem :mail: )

    #1338850
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    I am reluctant to take you on ham, given I’m always chasing your coattails, however shannon bridge strikes me as an interesting contender and a value bet at 16-1, assuming he’s going to run of course. his form puts him bang there and he’s quite stoutly bred, so should relish the step up in trip.

    in general quite a wide-open race. seem to recall barters hill running in this.

    #1338853
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3637

    I am reluctant to take you on ham, given I’m always chasing your coattails, however shannon bridge strikes me as an interesting contender and a value bet at 16-1, assuming he’s going to run of course. his form puts him bang there and he’s quite stoutly bred, so should relish the step up in trip.

    in general quite a wide-open race. seem to recall barters hill running in this.

    I did have a look at shannon bridge judge, price was big just slightly worried if hes shown enough in his first two starts to beat a few potentially smart horses here, he only beat a 112 horse 1 1/2 lengths, he probably needs to improve another stone to win, not impossible with skelton!

    Tbh im most worried about callet mad turning up here, like i said in my original post. if he turns up he absolutely will not be 12/1, he could potentially still go off fav, as i cannot see indian hawk running if callet mad does and even if he did jacob would likely take callet mad because of the form shown at this trip

    #1338857
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    , he probably needs to improve another stone to win, not impossible with skelton!

    he’s got a very similar rating to your two picks, ham.

    #1338881
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3637

    , he probably needs to improve another stone to win, not impossible with skelton!

    he’s got a very similar rating to your two picks, ham.

    Similar rating yes, but the way both station master and indian hawk won, giving weight to the horses in second place, gives the indication that there is more to come from them, shannon bridge however doesnt give me the same impression visually, thats not to say he cant and wont, back up in trip etc hes still unexposed,just not for me.

    #1339102
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3637

    Unusual for me to have a 3rd but have added in a saver on callet mad 12/1 e/w

    #1339115
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Unusual for me to have a 3rd but have added in a saver on callet mad 12/1 e/w

    I’m a bit confused as to when this 12-1 was available ham? :scratch:

    and if so why didn’t you mention it earlier?

    #1339120
    ham
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    • Total Posts 3637

    Read back judge, clearly sais if callet mad turns up he absolutely will not be 12/1, i can provide some proof if ittl satisfy you judge LOL

    #1339121
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    He actually went out to 16/1 but unfortunately i only got 12/1

    #1339122
    Avatar photoMarkTT
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    • Total Posts 3084

    Indian Hawk or Calett Mad for me, the latter is far too big at 12s returned to 3 miles

    A good race in prospect

    #1339124
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Read back judge, clearly sais if callet mad turns up he absolutely will not be 12/1, i can provide some proof if ittl satisfy you judge LOL

    well why didn’t you say at the start you backed him? :scratch:

    he’s obviously about 5-1 now

    are you aftertiming?

    #1339125
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Indian Hawk or Calett Mad for me, the latter is far too big at 12s returned to 3 miles

    what 12-1?

    #1339131
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    I added him in this morning before decs judge i mentioned the other day i would be worried if he turned up and luckily i got wind that std would be riding him, he was 12/1 this morning :good:

    #1339137
    Avatar photothejudge1
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    • Total Posts 2251

    Ham has been kind enough to message me his bet.

    Sad that he was self-conscious enough to delete the stake ;-)

    #1339144
    ham
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3637

    Always a negative in the comments judge!, my staking is no ones business and i was merely putting your mind at ease by giving you an insight to one of my bets

    Im not a tipster so i dont post how many points or how much £ i have on, i balance it for my own methods to suit myself,

    So as this thread has taken a turn ill summarise my bets

    Indian hawk 7/1 e/w
    Station master 6/1 e/w
    Saver on callet mad at 12/1 e/w

    Like i said its very unusual for me to have 3 in a race but i seen an oppertunity to get ahead of the prices as the front two where always touted to not be running.

    Where has the quote button went?? Lol i keep reporting posts because of it lol

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