- This topic has 33 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 5 months ago by
.
- Posts
Apologies for no in depth wonderful opening post we’re regularly treated to by VTC but my two against the field…
River Frost (10/1)
Been waiting for this one after running a real eye catcher (5th) in arguably one of the hottest handicaps form wise run this season! Same owner, jockey as last years winner…
Dentley De Mee (20/1)
Purely and simply because it’s in off a low weight for a yard with a good recent record in the race…3 wins in the last 7 years..
Diese de bieffes @8/1 e/w looks prepped for this
Bags groove @9/1 e/w has potential even off 145
Quality not quantity from you Zam, and about time people got a break from my waffle lol. Been a loooong week at work.
Love this race, but record in it is patchy at best. Maybe best to wait, and that’s what I’ll do, as most of the appealing ones are near the top of the market. I could be tempted by an each way go on Jaleo just now. 25’s is fair for four places, as it is difficult to see him actually getting his head in front, but he certainly appeals the most of those at a price.
No anti post play for me, but at bigger prices – Dino Velvet appeals most. Travelled really well into the race at Newbury before being given a sympathetic ride to finish 5th to the well handicapped old gaurd. Its was his 1st try beyond 2m but stayed 1m 4f on the flat so the step up to 2m 5f could suit. Only rated 123, @20s in a few places,he floats my boat.
Not had a proper look at this race yet but the Dr. Newland hoss that’s running for the first time since arriving from France has been well backed it seems.
I’m chuffed to see Bastyan on Diese Des Bieffes, and I’m hoping for a decent show on Saturday. I took 8-1 earlier in the week as I thought the price would go, but the only worry is I can still see 7-1. I might go and put more on as I like this horse.
I will also be interested to see how Wishfull Dreaming runs after moving yards
Surprised that Jaleo isn’t going, but I suppose a bullet dodged once again, and glad I waited.
Really struggling to pick one out now, but I like your shout Lemons for D D Bieffes, while I’m also looking at Red Indian, but a bit up in the air for me, and still no bet.
I am already on three for this and will rsisit temptation to back any more.
Am on EL TERREMOTO at 28/1 DENTLEY DE MEE at 20/1 and I SHOT THE SHERIFF at 20/1 !!
Good Luck Guys
Just watch the Organist win at Warwick and then get on Bob Marley and Eric Claptons horse!! Was going ever so well last time out over three miles and the drop back in trip will suit this strong traveller down to the ground and have backed it again at 25/1 !!
Crap record in the race with the sole exception of Oscara Dara a few years ago, I would be surprised to be in a club of one on that score though!
Spiritofthegames is the selection for me at 16/1 (Betfair). Lightly raced for a 6 YO but his only race this season saw him 10l clear of Kansas City Chief.
Pick of last season’s campaign was actually a creditable run behind Perigrine Run, Wholestone and West Approach; who have all developed into high class hurdlers or novice chasers this year – and liked the way he stuck at it in behind.
Seems fairly treated by the handicapper for two successive hurdle wins, including a nice win over the Nicholls horse Amour de Nuit who went on to win a Listed Nov Hurdle in October.
Will also add TopoftheGame as a saver, and try try try to leave it there. Again, some good recent form over the trip in generally, a better class of race. Notably beating recent winner Poetic Rythym whilst giving weight away. He gives my main pick 5lbs here.
Good luck all, hopefully a better thread return than with the Welsh National last weekend!
It’s obviously tricky but I sided with River Frost because he looks to have very solid form, he looks the right age at six and the stable are 4/12 the past fortnight. He should stay well into the bargain and he has a shade of class.
Like Yeats, I preferred this when it was 2M and my favourite winners of the race were Prideaux Boy and Make A Stand, who were good for me in their careers.
My recent record is awful, although I haven’t played every year. Probably safe for everyone to cross my pick off first in any analysis.
River Frost 6/1
I may stick another few quid on if the morning markets are appetising.
Good luck to all players.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’m sticking with the new kid on the block Ollie Murphy who looks to add this to the racing Welfare handicap from a few weeks ago. Wishful dreaming is his representative in this and has the profile of one who could do the job for him.
Won a decent handicap off 123 at Chepstow last year after a year off the track and looked like he could keep progressing but disappointingly that was his sole win last year but he was competitive off higher marks 128(beaten 2 and 2 3/4 lengths in 2 separate handicaps albeit small fields) and 130 (beaten 6 lengths into 4th behind the thrown in Brain power who was 20lb higher following his next run).
He’s proven he goes well fresh with 2 of his 3 wins being after 9 months or more of a layoff and i think tomorrow is his day.Dino Velvet is my other one, was a bit more prominent last time than he usually is (probably too keen after the step up in trip) and paid the price at the end after looking like he’d be involved at the end, it could be he simply didn’t stay but i think if he’s dropped in and put to sleep he’ll stay no problem and i’ve a feeling he’s got a bit left in him now he’s had a few runs against the grown ups.
I think that TOPOFTHEGAME looks the right sort for this. Having
had only 4 runs, he is obviously open to improvement, and has shown some decent
form with a couple of maiden wins and a decent enough 2nd behind Beyond Conceit,
who didn’t do the form any harm with a hard fought 2nd behind The Worlds End in
a Grade 1 at Aintree. His return outing this season was in a Beginner’s Chase at
Nerwbury, where he was odds on but came down at the 13th when travelling well.
Whether Henderson sees him ultimately as a chaser or not, I think he could have
the ammunition to have a say in this. I put him up in the ante post thread a couple
of days ago at 8/1, he drifted a bit and I took the 10/1 that was on offer. That’s
gone, but Paddy Power and Betfair still go 9/1 which I think is the value in this.I also took a chance E/W on BENTLEY DE MEE at 28/1. He looks to
be improving, with a gutsy win last race but one at Taunton, and was just pipped
at the finish last time out at Ludlow, with the pair pulling well clear of the field.
Nick Williams knows what is needed to win this race, having produced the winner in
3 of the last 7 runnings. He hasn’t gone unnoticed by the handicapper who has slapped
11lbs on since his last run, but with the admirable services of Lizzie Kelly taking
3lbs of his back he will be carrying 10-3.I’m happy enough with those 2, and if they happen to make the forecast I’ll be
even happierEquine Soduku
A proper handicap with the weight difference top to bottom.
Weight wise only Saphir (11-07 with claim) has won from top handicap last 8 runnings,age wise 6 yr olds have much the best recent record.
Looking for something thats not shown its hand,probably most of the field!
Concentrated on the bottom 9 horses,from 11-02 lb down.
The doctors horse could be thrown in on his run behind FLC in france,as mentioned there has been money for the murphy horse,both are interesting and open to plenty improvement.
Gone with two down the bottom,both highlighted on here already,both younger than ideal.Dino Velvet….liked the newbury run,also hung a little up the straight,suggesting this right handed course might be up his street,like the stable,hoping his mark is very workable.
Dentley De Mee…..stable record mentioned,the 11 lb rise looks harsh for getting beaten lto,however the run behind marias benefit trying to give that half a stone,suggests not.
Looks difficult,just as it should be,best of luck to those playing.
I know he’s up in trip but the way DDB got outpaced last time out worries me and I can see the same happening bearing in mind the pace they usually go in this race.
Like Steve I think River Frost has the perfect profile for this race and his recent break has been by design. He has a smashing record round Kempton and on the basis of his Coral Cup and Chepstow runs, he can still be very competitive off this mark albeit that’s reflected in his price.
What I perceive as the main bet in the race though has to be William Henry unfortunately. He looks more than capable of winning over the smaller obstacles off a mark of 145 and looking down his form figures, it shows he’s due a win. The jockey booking is a huge positive and I can see him putting up a bold show.
I was going to leave it at that but when I saw Bet365 were offering 50/1 about Man From Mars I thought it had to be worth a sly e/w gamble. Nick Williams has had 6 winners from 16 runners in recent weeks and this horse signed off his last campaign with a course win. The jockey booking can’t be a negative and he gets in off next to no weight. Of course he has to step up massively on form but he’s unexposed.
River Frost 11/2 (win)
William Henry 6/1 (win – main bet)
Man From Mars 50/1 (e/w)
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.