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My theory here is that Diese Des Bieffes has joint top adjusted RPR and should improve for the extra distance, top trainer who does well at Kempton. Unattractive price, could plump for any of a handful at double figures but have no preference amongst them or any strong conviction about one of them in particular.
Hi Charles, I’ve put my 2 up on here, TOPOFTHEGAME and BENTLEY DE MEE, but I also thought
that the odds on MAN OF MARS were tempting. I put him up as my reserve in
Pat’s Saturday H’cap competition but hadn’t got round to betting him yet, but I see he’s
drifted out to 66/1 so I’ve had some of that. As you mentioned Steve, he has to step up
quite a bit on what he’s done, but at those odds he’s too tempting not to have a little
on him. Here’s hoping he sneaks into the places
Hi Charles, I’ve put my 2 up on here, TOPOFTHEGAME and BENTLEY DE MEE, but I also thought
that the odds on MAN OF MARS were tempting. I put him up as my reserve in
Pat’s Saturday H’cap competition but hadn’t got round to betting him yet, but I see he’s
drifted out to 66/1 so I’ve had some of that. As you mentioned Steve, he has to step up
quite a bit on what he’s done, but at those odds he’s too tempting not to have a little
on him. Here’s hoping he sneaks into the placesFor some reason the edit button seems to have disappeared. I did of course mean Charles, when I
typed Steve, and I do know he’s called Man FROM Mars. Pity that the edit button
has disappeared, it at least hides your incompetence from those that hadn’t read your post yet
From my blog (posted last night):
William Henry is a very talented horses who won an NH Flat race here by 17 lengths on just his second outing. Surprisingly, he hasn’t run again right-handed since that day. He was well fancied on his chasing debut last time but didn’t seem to care at all for fences and Russell pulled him up when his saddle slipped.
Interesting that Russell is replaced here by James Bowen, who claims 5lbs. It would be nice to know if this was at the suggestion of the trainer in the hope that the very talented Bowen and his claim can make the difference. Russell is retained in the UK by William Henry’s owner, Dai Walters, although I believe it is something of a gentleman’s agreement and perhaps Russell begged off to ride the good Cheltenham prospect Mengli Khan at Punchestown.
I’m also going to have £1 on Top Ville Ben in this. He won by a street at Haydock last time in heavy ground. Haydock’s heavy going is getting a reputation for ‘freak’ winners but I’m not so sure it’s a deserved one. Bristol De Mai is the main witness for the prosecution in these cases but I think his King George run was too bad to be true and that his Betfair win at Haydock should not be condemned too quickly.
Another impressive winner from the front that day who probably got slotted in to the freak category by some was Sam Spinner; look what he did next. So at around 41/1 on Betfair (28/1) with the bookies, I’m happy to have a small saver on him. It might well have been a freak day but equally, he changed yards in September and has been showing steady improvement since. Also, Adam Nicol took over in the saddle two runs ago and the horse’s best Racing Post ratings have been achieved in those two races. Sometimes a horse and jockey just click.
hate these garbage races, always do badly on them (and horse racing in general, tbf.)
please shoot me for having the lack of discipline to get involved in the first place.
Great tipping Joe and Charles, he looks a decent sort. Topofthegame ran not
a bad race, he seemed to come under a bit of pressure before most to keep with
them, but then ran on well for 4th. I think he looks like a 3m+ horse to me.I know he’s up in trip but the way DDB got outpaced last time out worries me and I can see the same happening bearing in mind the pace they usually go in this race.
Like Steve I think River Frost has the perfect profile for this race and his recent break has been by design. He has a smashing record round Kempton and on the basis of his Coral Cup and Chepstow runs, he can still be very competitive off this mark albeit that’s reflected in his price.
What I perceive as the main bet in the race though has to be William Henry unfortunately. He looks more than capable of winning over the smaller obstacles off a mark of 145 and looking down his form figures, it shows he’s due a win. The jockey booking is a huge positive and I can see him putting up a bold show.
I was going to leave it at that but when I saw Bet365 were offering 50/1 about Man From Mars I thought it had to be worth a sly e/w gamble. Nick Williams has had 6 winners from 16 runners in recent weeks and this horse signed off his last campaign with a course win. The jockey booking can’t be a negative and he gets in off next to no weight. Of course he has to step up massively on form but he’s unexposed.
River Frost 11/2 (win)
William Henry 6/1 (win – main bet)
Man From Mars 50/1 (e/w)Good call re DDB, Charles. He’ll go up to 3m but I wonder if the same thing will happen?
Well done with William Henry.
River Frost never showed at all. Barry Geraghty did little to help explain by saying that the horse was “Never travelling” and the vet reported no abnormalities.
I wish I could have explained away a crap day at work as easily as that.
I mean, it’s pretty desperate when your selection is getting reminders after the 1st flight!
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well Done Charles/Steeple…….that lad looked the difference as the 2nd came there at the last.
Not involved with River Frost….Agree SC….that did not look good,and them some.
I backed that River Frost as well, it was looking a bit unruly at the start, probably a combination of not liking the ground and throwing it’s toys out of the pram.
I had my main bet on William Henry there so indeed chuffed with that and I thought James gave the winner a cracking ground-saving ride; I tend to dislike jocks that think circumnavigating the field round the final bend is a good idea.
I must admit that I thought he’d be backed on course into favouritism when you consider that the only 2 horses to have finished in front of him throughout his hurdling career are Wholestone and Pingshou (who are both rated in the 150s) and he was effectively carrying 11st7. DDB took most of the on course money as it turned out; maybe that was due to what had happened in the preceding races with the favourites flying in left, right and centre.
I’m still waiting to hear from Alan King about what happened to River Frost though, he was never happy from word go. Very strange from such a consistent horse and I do hope there’s nothing amiss.
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