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Hope the weather is nicer than here in Baden Baden!!
Some decent racing , however,my only interest in York is PRIDE OF NATION in the 3.15,looked progressive last season and looks the type to carry on through the ranks , track,going will suit and a tactical race won`t effect him,the 5-2 WISE DENNIS looks ridiculous,doubt he will get the end to end gallop he requires, Cumani stable are starting to show the right signs so a bit of the 11-2 is in order!!
Good luck
I like that one from Cormack:<br>Would this qualify as ‘insider trading’? What are the definitions of ‘insider trading’
The way the “Stock market“define “Insider trading“ i would say a definate yes which would then be “illegal“, has its supported by the promoters they would have a problem!!
I must admit i would enjoy trading “live“ during a race,however,its not viable, the only sport i bet live is tennis and my trades are always when they are taking a seat at the end of a game!!
I`m on DE SOTO at fancy prices and with Webbers horses starting to run well i fancy im in with a good shout. Horse is already proven at the festival and despite under performing on the heavy out im not worried about this type of ground. The jolly is the one to beat but ive got a feeling she would be better on a more orthadox flat track, i`ll take Granit Jack as the alternative!!
Suppose Sporting life/RP are taking a feed from SIS,either way this is sure to be behind the course market whether that be by 5 or 30 seconds!!
Furthermore from my own observation Wolverhampton as the most volatile price fluctuations thus you half expect a differant return compared to last show,could be down to the efficiency of the SP returner or simply the time delay!!
I suppose everyone as their own methodology and mine wouldn`t be based on the current SP,however,in your case i would put the experience down to Wolverhampton being unique !!
Hi Wit
Looks a bit political to say the least (Coolmore and the Maktoums!!)
German racing takes place mainly at the weekends thus UK/French racing fills in the gap.
Unfortunately for the locals German racing is going downhill pretty fast,despite a tote take out of over 25% theirs simply no pool,German trainers send their horses to France for the higher prize money , in fact they are even buying French stock in order to benefit from the Premium,take a look at Cagnes tommorrow and you will see what i mean.
http://www.galopp-online.de/galopp_insi … 261798b4ef
or http://www.galopp-online.de then click rennbahn
Germany<br>……………………………………………………………………………..<br>You will find some links/literature on Italian racecourses here:-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ho … acks#Italy
Taby Sweden (Top galopp track in Scandanavia)
http://www.tabygalopp.se/indexe.html
although the Scans prefer trotting:-
Paddy Power  Early price 3.40 Wolves…….. betting to  130%,was a 12 horse race so 2.5% per runner,i would hazzard a guess that Hills would chalk up at 128% for a 10 horse race.
Mind you i must admit to not really taking much notice, its difficult to get a serious bet early doors,Betfairs the same , liquidity levels are not serious until about 30 mins before a race.
(Edited by Tony25 at 8:12 pm on Jan. 16, 2007)
Plenty of naivety and confusion in this thread:-
Opening statement “total sp of their book is 175%“.surely the SP is the returned price on the day of the race!!
Someone else mentioned all his bets where taken at EP even if he wanted the SP…………..this cannot be the case,i would check that you are clicking the right box,maybe you are taking a board price near to the off? as bets at SP are in the Bookmakers interest and i very much doubt you would have problems getting on!!
With regard to betting ante post the Bookmakers put up the prices, you as the consumer have a free hand in that you can choose to take it or leave it,at the end of the day if you are shopping around and taking the best price you should in theory have an advantage over the SP otherwise you are doing something wrong!!
Early prices are differant in that a non runner means money back and a rule 4 deduction if applicable, whilst Bookmakers will traditionally bet 130% on a 10 horse race the best price book is more than likely to be between 110-120%………….then its down to your own ability/Knowledge in assessing the market!!
I think the great thing in all of this is “freedom of choice“,you can bet ante post,early price,board price,starting price,you can place bets with a Bookmaker or betting exchange,you can decide to lay a horse if thats your thing,prices are competitive,competition is allowed,theirs no state monopoly,taxation as been removed from the equation,information is more readily available and you have literally the same tools has the Bookmakers!!
Punters are like footballers in that they have differant levels of ability,some are premier league,some lower league,some half professionals,then theirs the amateurs and last but not least the kick around with the kids……………..whatever your situation it shouldn`t be a problem if you can recognise the level your at!!
Ian Wright (Arsenal) proved it was possible to step up the ladder as he went from plasterer and sunday amateur through the ranks to Crystal Palace/Arsenal(Golden boot first season)/England!!
Last but not least ….ante post betting is not what it used to be,the mystique doesnt really exist,its the advantage of batting on a level playing field!!
Wow!! another betting exchange without the add ons (Casino/Sportsbook/Poker/Bingo), i`m not at liberty to say much on the subject,however, this looks very naive,they argue the opposite in the about us section, so im assuming they have a master plan or a unique selling point? theirs plenty had a go but not many thats been successful , the likes of Betsson got through it because of the Pokerroom and Casino being in place at the right time,Betbull was a JV with BWIN thus they had experience and ammunition,however,they soon realised it wasnt working thus they jumped onto the retail bandwagon!!
I`m a great believer in that anything is possible,however, i wouldn`t be snapping up shares if they where available in this start up, i hope for them that im wrong,i would certainly advise them to make contracts with Robot providers if they will entertain a start up,also,they should look at the markets provided,they dont even have the pairings for the first grand slam of the year that starts today (Aussie open)!!
Anyway……………….i would argue that they are indeed very naive!!
First time with the 18-30 club i was 17,that brings back memories:) ,onto the thread!!
Instinct,self belief and a feel for what your actually doing are the most important aspects,can they be learnt?
We all started somewhere and i guess we picked snipets up from others along the way,however,with reference to myself i would say i was 99.5% self educated in the matter.School Bookmaker at 14,working on the course at 18,own licence at 21 (stood the dog tracks),concentrated on pro gambling from 26,took shares and interest in Scandanavian internet bookmakers when i was 35 (Set me up for life), probably one of the top 0.05% gamblers in the world in turns of turnover nowdays,several things i can point out:-
If i was starting my pro-gambling life off nowdays i would concentrate on sport at the early stage,its easier to get ahead of the market.
Most UK Bookies are useless and liquidity at Betfair arrives far to late nowdays,i would recommend educating yourself on Asian h`caps , bets of 10k + are standard and easy to place!!
If your playing with a smaller bank track Betfair in the last 30m mins leading upto the start of lets say a football game and watch for any big line moves especially in away leagues (Scandanavia/Germany etc),then have someone or yourself in place to bet with high street Bookmakers who are unlikely to change price!!
Have a look at lower league football especially in the likes of Scandanavia,Spain and Holland………….German,Italian,East bloc Bookmakers are usually exposed once the first info starts filtering through.
Dont be scared to travel to place a bet and always look for new opportunities for example when U-Bet (Opap Greece) started in Malta they where differant to the average State monopoly in that they where betting to typical UK high street over-rounds of 111.5%,however,unlike our informed Bookmakers these guys issued prices twice a week never changed a price,line swings in UEFA tournements where extreme and on many occassions i was getting 3,7 about a 2,5 shot……………….i wasnt the only one,i would estimate they lost at least 10 million in first 4 months to pros who had spotted opportunity!!
Try and build a network of contacts and never be shy to remove non performers.
Always look after people who supply quality info!!
In short i would think certain aspects of the business are trainable in a short time if you have an half decent student.
With regards to horseracing its more difficult in that you need more knowledge,however,the rewards are also higher.
Like a baby you learn to crawl then walk and as you graduate run!!
Without self belief you have no chance,its like being the employer as opposed to the employee,not a business for your typical conservative!!
He who dares wins!!
AP……Don`t think PG as a lot to worry about from an h`capping point of view !!TREATY FLYER was beaten out of sight (22 legnths and probably value for 40 legnths),taking into account that the 109 rated hurdler HARRINGAY would have finished a comfortable 2nd but for falling at the 2nd last, i doubt TF would be given a mark within 10lb of his hurdling mark (on that one run alone!!)
With regards to the Feltham:-
BOLD FIRE receives plenty of weight but i doubt it will be enough against the likes of KNOWHERE, especially if the latter puts in a clean round(the fences at Kempton are certainly easier than Cheltenham and flat track should also suit better than the Cheltenham gradients) ,three miles round here should be ideal,my only worry is stable form could be a bit better,incidently, not sure Nicholls horses are in same form they where a coupleof weeks back!,BOYCHUK is pretty game and should run his race and i would expect an improved performance from the “rag“ AZTEC WARRIOR.YES SIR has a bit to prove following a break and ive convinced myself he`s received an inflated mark based on what amounts to summer jumping.
I will either bet KNOWHERE (BF 5,6)and cover myself with a little on AZTEC WARRIOR(21,0) or lay YES SIR and BOLD FIRE at accumalated odds of around 11-10!!
Either way it looks a very interesting race
One horse i will be betting later in the day is
K3.30 STAR SHOT,nice size field,step up in trip,perfect going and nice h`cap mark,trainer found a bit of form, at a working mans price (BF14,0) why not!!
A look at Bangor:-
2.20 (Lay) IS IT ME (Lay)….so theirs no confusion “lay“:o  , everyone appeared to be impressed by the way this horse won first time up, i remember the race with affection because i had one of my bigger bets on him that day.The reason i got stuck in at Stratford was simple,he only had to jump to win against such poor opposition,baring the last he did it well,however,lets keep things in perspective,that was a dreadful race on a course that suits horses that lay handy,this race is much more competitive and this “titch“ of a horse will find it much harder lumbering a penalty,opposition includes EVER SPECIAL who horse who`s likely to do a lot better over hurdles than he did on the flat,THAT LOOK will appreciate this stiff galloping track more than most,WIND SHUFFLE a big scopey type thats likely to find his feet now hurdling and ARCHEMBOLDO who was ok on the flat and receives plenty of weight today……………………i don`t know who will win,what i do know is “IS IT ME“ shouldn`t be trading at circa 1,8 on the evidence of one micky mouse race!!
2.55 WISCALITUS:- Stays up he wins,these fences are stiff but they rarely catch out good jumpers and despite the latters fall last time out this boy fits into that category!!
3.30 EARL OF SPECTRUM:- In receipt of weight and a horse who`s finding his feet , he`s a good alternative to the favourite in a race that should be run to suit!!
4.05 MANDANGO CHIEF:- Looks to be on a decent mark,these fences should suit his bold jumping and all in all,not a lot to beat!!
Good luck
(Edited by Tony25 at 11:27 am on Aug. 4, 2006)
I think its fair to summise that he`s not so good as his Derby second would imply,maybe he`s holding a bit back (although connections haven`t put that theory forward ), Mario Hofer as his horses in good form,however,it has to be said that RASHING NUMBERS wouldn`t be considered the best horse in the stable,all in all,with the Fabre horses misfiring, yesterday was his big chance ,and he didn`t take it,i will be surprised if he ever picks up a goup race !!<br>
(Edited by Tony25 at 1:04 pm on July 24, 2006)
Well certainly not good enough on the day,whether he`s better than that remains to be seen.
I dont go with the theory that he was given too much to do,after all,Sir PERCY was behind him until the last 300 and at the same stage he was level with HALA BEK,if you want to refer to inexperience then maybe we should consider HALA BEK the one to take out of the race.The 6th horse BEST ALIBI was also gaining on VISINDAR at the finish!!
I see a few pundits suggesting he was ridden wrong,if thats the case the Jockey and trainers comments after winning at Longchamp are false,they both suggested he had plenty of speed!!
Wouldn`t have won at 10F either,looked lay material after 800 metres,unable to quicken would be my comment.
(Edited by Tony25 at 8:35 pm on June 3, 2006)
150-1 is even better :-
Same with Bets4all but they are fairly small so stick with a PLC,furthermore,with Betandwin you should be able to find join up Bonus so it might work out nearer 300-1!!
Be lucky
