February 6, 2007 at 21:34 #292
Yesterday I laid Dapple Dawn in the 1520 at Wolves. The price on both the RP site and Sporting Life was 3/1 at the off. The returned SP was 11/4. I lay strictly with reference to SP and it pee’s me off that what I lay to at the off and the price actually returned differ with increasing regularity.
Does anybody know what process the price at the off goes through before it is issued as the official SP, how it is issued and who or what are responsible for its compilation as a final SP.February 6, 2007 at 21:42 #28511davidbradyMember
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Can the difference between 3/1 and 11/4 mean that much to your bottom line in the long run. And if the SP had been 3/1 instead of 11/4, what difference would that have made anyway because you don’t lay at SP.
Not knocking you BTW, just interested.February 6, 2007 at 21:58 #28512dave jayMember
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CR .. I believe its a general ‘docking’ process, where the hoods that are deciding what price to return look at all of the boards on course to get the shortest price and then round it down to the next one .. rounding it up requires an act of parliament and leaving it the same, is the old system.
.. david that little price fiddle equates to about 1.6%, which is quite a bit off one runner for no reason at all.February 6, 2007 at 22:11 #28513davidbradyMember
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I understand that Dave, but CR is laying not backing so I’m curious as to how the new SP system is to his detrimentFebruary 6, 2007 at 22:40 #28514WallaceParticipant
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If the SP is less than the before the race odds and you are laying then don;t see much to complain about.
Over the last few weeks I have been doing some tests using dutching software. It is amazing how often the front 3 or 4 runners in the market all shorten within the last ten minutes of trading. I think this trend has happening a lot more now than prior to the new SP returns system.February 7, 2007 at 00:02 #28515
Being a layer I live and die by the price I get matched at. The price is everything, its the only thing that matters in the long run.
I laid Dapple Dawn at 3.1/1 seconds before the off because I believed (correctly) that it would go off at 3/1 seconds later. Based on the RP website (all the bookmaker prices) and the SL website reported prices of 3/1 at the off I had no reason to believe the returned SP would be any lower than 3/1. I’m now left with an overlay of 12.7% instead of 5% which over a period of time makes a huge difference when you factor in comission on top.
The overall change to SP’s are only beneficial to me if I can get my lay matched at a predetermined overlay on SP. If that SP is going to be shorter than the advertised price at the off it really can hurt my profits. It hasnt happened enough lately to be of huge concern but its instance is increasing.
Total fraud by the bookmakers if you ask me!!
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 12:32 am on Feb. 7, 2007)February 7, 2007 at 01:08 #28516Maxilon 5Member
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It is amazing how often the front 3 or 4 runners in the market all shorten within the last ten minutes of trading
3.40 at Southwell today, Wallace, was utter madness. Everything shortened except the two complete rags. Even a bookie I know was utterly confused which suggests this is being led by the usual suspects.February 7, 2007 at 06:24 #28517SeagullMember
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I fully agree with you Cav as overall the price obtained is the second most important factor.<br>First of course is selcting the right horses to back or to lay.<br>Yesterday I was out and about in town and whilst checking results noticed the favourite was playing up going into the gates on the South Afican racing I calculated the overound was 118 whilst the handlers were attempting to get the jolly in it shortened in the market half a point and when it was clear to see it would likely to not run it came in another half a point.<br>When the market was reformed without the favourite it went to 126 overound. Seems everyone is fiddling around with the prices.February 7, 2007 at 07:31 #28518Tony25Member
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Suppose Sporting life/RP are taking a feed from SIS,either way this is sure to be behind the course market whether that be by 5 or 30 seconds!!
Furthermore from my own observation Wolverhampton as the most volatile price fluctuations thus you half expect a differant return compared to last show,could be down to the efficiency of the SP returner or simply the time delay!!
I suppose everyone as their own methodology and mine wouldn`t be based on the current SP,however,in your case i would put the experience down to Wolverhampton being unique !!February 7, 2007 at 08:56 #28519roryParticipant
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Quote: from Cavelino Rampante on 12:02 am on Feb. 7, 2007[br]Being a layer I live and die by the price I get matched at. The price is everything, its the only thing that matters in the long run.
I laid Dapple Dawn at 3.1/1 seconds before the off because I believed (correctly) that it would go off at 3/1 seconds later. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â Based on the RP website (all the bookmaker prices) and the SL website reported prices of 3/1 at the off I had no reason to believe the returned SP would be any lower than 3/1. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â I’m now left with an overlay of 12.7% instead of 5% which over a period of time makes a huge difference when you factor in comission on top.
The overall change to SP’s are only beneficial to me if I can get my lay matched at a predetermined overlay on SP. Ãƒâ€šÃ‚Â If that SP is going to be shorter than the advertised price at the off it really can hurt my profits. It hasnt happened enough lately to be of huge concern but its instance is increasing.
Total fraud by the bookmakers if you ask me!!
<br>Perhaps I’m being thick here, but surely if you are acting solely as a layer, then the SP has absolutely no effect on your business whatsoever. If the price of this one horse contracted at the off and nothing else drifted then it is no more of an ‘overlay’ than it was before the price change, since we all seem to agree that the SP is not a true indication of the market.February 7, 2007 at 10:01 #28520ArtemisParticipant
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Is it your basic assumption that the market is extremely efficient, and that there is sufficient margin at SP to yield a profit if you can lay very close to SP on the exchanges?
In other words, are you acting as a bookmaker in selected(or every) race, laying at exchange odds rather than SP?
If so, it must be very tight indeed, taking commission into account. If you are not, I cannot see how the SP affects your operations.February 7, 2007 at 10:33 #28521
Yes Artemis that is my assumption….
Based on every SP for the past 9 years I know that 3/1 shots win 22.7% of the time, I know that 11/4 shots win 24.9% of the time.
I concluded a long time ago that over the long term and thats all that matters I will never beat these stats by a big margin. As a layer I operate solely these last few years on the principle that my every lay bet is a value bet with a very small edge, and that edge exerted 7 or 8 times a day over a period of time produces my profits. To my mind thats exactly how the bookmakers operate as well. A small (all be it increasing) margin on each runner exerted dozens of times each day. A small profit on a highturnover.
For me over a period of time the difference between laying a 24.9% chance at 12.5% over these odds and a 22.7% chance at 5% over the odds would be massive.
Thats probably very boring to the formbook purists but its the way I operate.
I accept there are reasons why the internet price and the oncourse price may differ at the off. However in this instance the Paddy Power prices on the RP site do update after the off and reflect what might have been last second changes just before the off. They were still 3/1 on that race when updated after the off and its happening more often these days. I’d love to know what the last price in the shops was…
It dosent happen enough to be concerned about yet but this kind of thing has increased over the last few months.
If you bought a ticket in a raffle to win a 2007 7 series BMW and then upon winning was told the prize was now a 2004 5 series BMW because the organisers "said so" you’d probably take it further….
Nick Mordins piece in last weeks weekender is a very good read. One thing for sure thank **** I dont have to bet at SP with lowlife bookmakers any more.
(Edited by Cavelino Rampante at 10:34 am on Feb. 7, 2007)February 7, 2007 at 10:49 #28522apracingParticipant
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Quote: from Cavelino Rampante
Does anybody know what process the price at the off goes through before it is issued as the official SP, how it is issued and who or what are responsible for its compilation as a final SP.
Don’t you think that building a system around the misplaced belief that final show and SP are linked whilst professing ignorance of how the two things are calculated is a bit risky?
APFebruary 7, 2007 at 11:04 #28523ArtemisParticipant
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Seems a very good long term strategy, CR.
I don’t think the recent increases in the over-rounds(reduced SPs) will actually effect you at all because ALL SPs are being reduced. 3/1 shots will now win less than they have done previously and this will be the case for all other SPs. Your margin should be the same because the long term market conditions have changed, although it might take a few months before this becomes apparent in the figures.February 7, 2007 at 11:17 #28524WallaceParticipant
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When considering any approcah based on SP’s you must accept the goalposts have moved recently. The margins indicated by research over the past 2 to 5 years no longer apply. The mugs betting at SP have absolutley no chance of winning.
Betfair is a far better indicator of the true weight of money in the market and BSP (Betfair SP) is the new SP.
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