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Darren……Whats the reason for trainers not running horses?
-Pathetic prize money?
-The risk of being loaded into the starting stalls (Averages about 7 mins per race!
-The total lack of professionalism of the small men (Jockeys)……..The last time we where supposed to have a runner in Germany (Munich), the jockey decided he didn`t want to stay for the last race (Helfenbein), we where told 25 mins before the race was supposed to begin,we couldn`t find any replacement who wasn`t drunk by this stage, result 1000KM round journey + costs for nothing, after discussing this with the idiots in Cologne we made the decision that we wouldn`t race in Germany again!
-Poor conditions of the racing surface ….Horses breaking down!!
-An extremely poor h`capper who helps assist uncompetitive racing!!
The racing in Germany has been systimatically ruined over the years,theirs no trust in the Tote that takes out a greedy 25% +, its not uncommen for the placed horses to return 10,10,10 ie money back……in other words you can lose but you cannot win!!
Bookmakers and the racing authorities have been at war for years with regards to a fair price for the pictures, the authorities want about the same price for an average of 3 meetings per week as SIS charge for 20!!
Unless something radical happens their will be no racing in Germany in the future,the economics don`t add up!
I would “fire“ the lot of them (including the trilbied steward who threw out Bahama Mama) and start afresh!
Its sad really as their are some decent trainers in Germany!!
Go to Pau!
German sand racing is of a really poor standard!
Theirs zero atmosphere on the track
The racing authorities cannot be trusted to put on a programme!
Its colder in this part of the world
If you really want the German experience go to Baden Baden/Cologne/Dusseldorf/Hamburg during the normal racing season!!
Pau is a really nice experience, other alternatives would be Cagnes sur mer and Mijas in Spain (Fly to Malaga), in Febuary they have the Mijas cup , SKY CRUSADOR from the Recke yard won it last year! I go to most of the winter meeting in Mijas as i take migration for the winter!
Racing in Spain is really improving, the track in Madrid is excellent and the quality of racing good, Seville and San Sebastian are other venues worthy of a visit, Mijas as potential,however,unfortunately for them it fell in the wrong hands (Management), a UK mob who mainly operate in the East bloc (Global tote) are responsible for the tracks failings,staff/prize money/leases where not paid, their was talk of money laundering,tote turnover per race is very low etc,etc!
I would think Spain as a big future, sportsbetting licenses are being issued in certain areas and others will follow,the Spanish are compulsive gamblers thus the maths work!!
Whatever you decide,have a nice time!
Betfair pictures work from Sweden/Norway/Spain/Germany and Malta…..this i can assure you as i always use their pictures when travelling!
Wow i would have been interested in NARCISCO for that price, would appear great value but time will tell, i thought 80K would be high enough for LANCETTO so he looks a tad expensive,seeing hurdles might put his head right though,FIRST SMASH for 12 should prove reasonable,he`s not a bad looking horse,if placed right he could pick up a race or two!!
AP if your friend is looking for a duel purpose horse he might find it worthwhile to scout the German market,he could certainly pick up a bargain , more importantly he would almost certainly find something with a bit of scope and a few miles on the clock, i would tend to look through the smaller trainers though as your likely to have something to work on!!
I`ll throw in my tuppence!!
EL DANCER went for a fair price in my opinion,he`s always been highly regarded and did manage to win 5 from 9 starts,he likes winter ground,2.5 mile should be perfect,plenty of scope and looks like an hurdler!!
LANCETTO is over-rated, if you consider he was turned over at odds of 1.2 by a horse rated 74.5 (Flat Eric) , this horse as disappointed more than not and im not sure i would touch anything origionally trained by Mario Hofer,whilst he looks the business he`s only won 1 from 7 and he`s likely to go for an inflated price
FIRST SMASH was beaten off a German mark of 72.5,whilst he`s lightly raced his win ratio of 1 from 8 probably sums him up,he lacks the scope of the others!!
NARCISCO would be my buy if the price was fair,trained by Peter Schiergen he doesn`t have many miles on the clock,he would travel through winter ground,he`s got plenty of scope and as shown listed class form,this is the one i would be most excited about as he moves like an hurdler and he could reach the heights!!
Just going back to EL DANCER, if Donaldson went for a reported 360K this horse looks cheap at the price,if i remember correct Lucy Wadham paid big bucks (Around same price) for the 7-y-o AUGUSTINE,he was rated mid 60`s on the flat and had over 60 races in the tank,i hope he does well!!
But if he were to win it, I can tell you I’ll have a tear in my eye!!
So will Tony!
I like that one, made me laugh!!
I tend to be philosophical about these things as ive got plenty of experience (unfortunately) at taking an hit or two!!
Waking up this morning i still feel OVERDOSE is major lay material, i will probably go in the place market too!
Every situation is unique and the Spanish are even better than the Germans/Swedes when it comes to inventing bureaucracy, im sure your trying to be the good European but wouldn`t it be simpler to trade over your UK bank and send something every month to cover your Spanish costs!
With regards to tax in general,their are plenty of Loopholes in Spain if you establish your own company and work around that!,if you need a local tax lawyer feel free to PM me and i will send you some contact details !
TRINCOT (13-2) for interests sake
If thats your poisson take the 8`s with Corals, 2.6 a place wont be that on track,10 furlogs is biggest worry!
I`ve bet SHAKTAR DONETZSK on the Asian with a 0:1/4 ball start at 1,88 away to BASEL, they managed to beat Basel in a pre season friendly and they have the right game to play away,with a full stregnth squad i would make them slight favs on the level ball so got to go with the qtr!!
My other bet at this stage is Panathonikos at 2.06 with 1/2 ball start ,opponents Inter Milan haven`t found their form and struggled to beat Catania at the weekend,that followed an away draw to Sampdoria, Burdisso will be missing!, it looks like the Special one (Jose Mourhino) needs a while longer to find his best team and Olympiakos are a tough team to beat at home on any given day,with an hostile crowd against them i can`t see Inter taking max points from this game and for the sake of this bet a draw would do!
Also worth noting that Intalian Bookmakers Snai and Globet where top priced Inter when the market opened,they have now moved their lines to match demand but it shows me they are not convinced about an Inter win!!
Im considering laying Liverpool and will do so if price dips below 2,40,lets see what the next two hours bring!!
I thought it was Fagin?
Yes of course your right, Fagin from Oliver Twist, Charles Dickens!!
However,if it was Dermot Desmond in a master disguise all i can say is……….he needs a good meal,no point in making fortunes if your not willing to pay for a good meal!!
Not to hard………you can say that again!!, i thought i was going to suffer from an “heart still stand“ watching Mendizabel mess around.
I`ve seen this horse in all of his races and the one thing i will say, he only does enough,can`t wait to see him in the Arc!!
Everyone seems to be calling this a trial,well,the truth is: Group1 with €300k up for grabs!!
The all important going is reported at 3.2 (Good) so i assume Paris as missed all the recent rain!!
My Guide + my idea of correct price in brackets:
FOLK OPERA (12-1) Credit to connections,should be able to sit handy and take it up when the pacemakers call it a day,would be dangerous to underestimate as she stays all day and could take some pegging back once they are jostling for position.
TURFROSE 40-1) 2nd to AVANTI POALINI wouldn`t fit into this catagory
TREAT GENTLY (20-1) Merits respect as she`s improving,all the same a 2nd to LADY MARION leaves her short at this level
ZARKAVA (8-11) I guess we can crown her the Queen of French racing,toprated by a good margin (124 UK equivelent), style of racing makes this the perfect race (plenty of pace) and she certainly looked like she would stay 12 furlongs when bolting up in Chantilly,however,this track is a fair bit stiffer than Longchamp and the rumours doing the rounds are that she`s not fully wound up for this and she will need to be, i for one find her underpriced and the word “Lay“ comes into my thinking this morning!
BAILA ME (40-1) Decent in her own right but was 2nd string in German oaks and she was put in her place by a horse that had to do a lot of racing to win that event,opposeable!
DAR RE MI (6-1) Great credit to connections,keeps improving,will be suited by the way this race will be run,solid local matador taking the ride,excellent 2nd to LUSH LASHES when she was probably racing up the wrong part of the track,the only thing i would wish for her is slightly softer going,maybe its softer than reported,she will certainly test the metal of the jolly.
10 points to play with:-
2.5 each way DAR RE MI on the pmu
2.5 Each way GAGNOA with UK Bookies at a general 9-1
ICE QUEEN (12-1) holds GAGNOA on recent form but i can`t imagine that being the case today,decent ground will suit so i would expect a top half finish!
HONORIA 100-1) Cant see it!
ADORED (50-1) Coming up short at this level
TANGASPEED (100-1) If going turned up soft she would be worth a small interest at a very big price,out and out stayer will have to wait for another day!
MICHITA (20-1) Not really lived upto expectations,plenty to find
GAGNOA (6-1) No mug so whilst she has 3l to make up on the jolly with doubts over that one she should get a fair bit closer,trip and going should suit so i would expect her to finish top 3!!
I think PROSPECT WELLS was flattered when finishing runner up to MONMATRE, horses that tracked the break neck pace in that race didn`t get home (with the exception of Monmatre),he looked to me as though he was being ridden to get the trip!!
I thought the horse to take out of that race was DOCTOR FREEMANTLE (Has i mentioned on here at the time),he was intent on playing pinball and i think he was given a particular poor ride by Ryan Moore.
PROSPECT WELLS is rated 49.5 by the French h`capper, VISION DÈTAT is rated 55.0, PROSPECT WELLS has won 1 from 6 and that was a close call , VISION is unbeaten,the biggest question for VISION is the trip,will he get it or is he a real 10 Furlong horse.
However,if you are looking to get positive vibes about PROSPECT WELLS chance of winning the arc:
*Stable is really coming into form at the right time!
*The arc field doesn`t look upto standardWith regards to sundays race, i will put my thoughts on the appropriate thread at the right time,however,at this stage i would be more like 2-1 PROSPECT WELLS despite a lack of quality in the race , i would certainly be willing to lay him for the Arc but at 14,0 its not being clever, i assume the price is so short because he`s almost a definate runner,the owners will be keen to take this route unless he runs really poor tommorrow!
If anyone wants a look at Prospect wells last race or indeed Dr Freemantle here you go:
Runners and riders
I would think the “Copy and paste“ merchants are most at risk as they have no opinion in the first place thus they will find it difficult to operate a proper risk management!!
Tracking Betfair early doors is a big mistake has theirs zilch in the way of liquidity,i should imagine it would be very difficult to get covered for any reasonable amount during the morning hours!
I would really like to take on the likes of Corals/Laddies/WHill on international racing as im convinced i have a better grip of what the real market will and should look like,however, is it really worth the effort?
One observation i would like to make is Corals are usually the first up with international racing , im almost convinced the others plod around these prices,maybe the exception is BlueSq,they tend to be first up with top German racing.
Sportsbetting is no differant,if you look at Betradar you will see circa 180 Bookmakers pricing up the top league games,the first 10 or so set the trend then the sheep follow,these tools (Odds comparison sites) have made it easier for Odds compilers and Punters alike (Maybe not Betradar as it costs 4K per month!).
I can certainly understand the Bookmakers not wanting to give the Arbers a free meal ticket , it must be a chore deciding who is what,however, i think its sad when a punter cannot get covered for a decent stake, in days gone bye Bookmakers would be happy to lay the professional to reasonable amounts and use this info to form their market,since the likes of Betfair have come along the margin for error as diminished!
I found the story in the Post today about punters’ experiences getting on (or not!) interesting. I also found the responses from some of the bookmakers to be just plain dishonest. They used the excuse of knocking back the "arbers" to justify refusing or restricting bets but in my experience you don’t need to be an arber to have problems getting on, just a punter with a clue. Indeed, sometimes all you need is to be a lucky punter- I remember fondly having my first account closed with Surrey Racing way back after backing a few ante post winners at Cheltenham: a poor trading decision by them as I wasn’t a consistent winner at the time and they’d have got it all back. I thought it would be interesting if we shared our experiences in getting on with the various firms-in my case I’m starting with the best and ending with the worst. By the way, I’m not an arber!
Hills
I’ve never been restricted or knocked back by them even though I’m a net winner- the introduction of guaranteed odds is an added bonus- excellent.
Corals
Never had a problem, except that they’re hard to beat!
Paddy Power
Would have been no. 2 up to this week when they started restricting my bets, but deserve plenty of credit for pricing up early and taking a good bet.
Victor Chandler
Very, good, some restrictions on occasion but no complaints.
Bet 365
Probably have the worst reputation for knockbacks but my experience is good, though they do restrict bets.
Tote
Not great. I seldom seem to bet with them, though- don’t seem to take a view very often and do restrict bets.
Blue Square
Was severely restricted with them but a break of a few years and a new identity seems to have helped! Doubt it wil last….
Ladbrokes
Can’t get on on the net or on the phone for a decent amount. Luckily there’s a shop down the road the missus is very lucky in….
The Rest
Betfred, Skybet, Betdirect, Sporting Odds, Boyles, Bruce…
All a complete waste of time for me anyway.Won’t lay the proverbial 2 bananas to a banana. I find their representatives on TV hilarious- especially the eponymous Leon Blanche of Boyles- he should blanche at some of the porkies he has to tell!I`ve asked this question about 10 times now but no answer…………..What is a “reasonable“ amount?
The retail units i bet with are foreign to most of you as are the online Bookmakers,my only account in the UK is Betfair thus for UK horseracing that`s my restriction has i can`t get a price anywhere else!!
With regards to French racing i was getting some decent bets covered by the likes of WettenLeip/Springer/Wetten.de in Germany but im convinced they are dumping into the pools now ,thus im more likely to take a 4% rebate and go into the pool myself,hardly ideal!!
With regards to Sportsbetting i struggle to get on with retail units unless i bet in systems ie 3 from 5 etc,i`ve got used to this way of betting ,you can take it from me that if you are getting prices over the 100% Book price restrictions like minimum three are no problem,since ive been punting with European Bookmakers i`ve learnt to use the system to my advantage,whilst most have access to Betradar and Betfair they don`t move lines so quickly as the UK counterparts,furthermore,the average UK bookmaker will probably cover 500 betting opportunities a week,Croatian Bookmakers would be nearer 5000 thus its easier to find the odd loophole,using this form of betting i can get covered for 10-20K per week without setting alarm bells ringing!!
When Betting football online i go straight into the Asian h`caps, no half decent Asian h`cap Bookmaker would refuse anything under 10K in one hit ,where only talking of a 1.25-1.75% takeout!
With regards to Tennisbetting Centrebet are ok until you make a big withdrawel then they start considering your stakes,however,ive never had problems getting covered for a €1000 so i won`t complain!
I think the secret with profitable Gambling is having resources, im always amazed how naive “even successful punters are!!
I guess its a matter of trust but networking certainly comes into my way of gambling!!
