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Intriguing sprint over the easy 5F at Longchamp, race takes place on a seperate course in the middle of the track, low numbers have a distinct advantage!
The going is reported as Good-soft although we will get a better look at that today!!
My idea of price i would lay is in brackets
1.EQUIANO (12-1) Ex Spanish trained and now with Barry Hills,Top jockey taking the ride,horse as shown enough to give him a chance in a race of this nature but start box 18 is a big obstacle to overcome!
2.BLACK MAMBAZZO ((100-1) Nice sit in box 2,however,Italian sprint form doesn`t add up at this level
3.STRIKE UP THE BAND (50-1) UK 99OR leaves him short!
4.CAPTAIN GERRARD (16-1) If the rain falls and he returns to form he would have a real shout,however,he`s disappointed twice on the bounce without any real excuse,all the same he`s one who can race at this level!
5.DESERT LORD (33-1) Won this in 2006 and 3rd last year! seems to be on the downgrade now he`s reached 8 ,1st time Visor appears to be the only hope of some type of rekindlement!
6.WI DUD (40-1) Nice sit in 7, looks totally exposed but tends to run above himself when you don`t expect him, no chance on paper but top 7 finish a distinct possibility if he gets the run of the race!
7.MARIOL (40-1)Consistant but needs further than 5 Furlongs!
8.MARCHAND DÒR (5-1) Start box 20 was a real kick in the goolies and he would prefer further than a fast 5 furlongs,however,he`s got the class,he`s the horse in real top form,if they get in each others way he might be able to make an impact!
9. DANDY MAN (25-1) A couple of years ago you would have thought him the real deal with this division open for his conquering,never materialised and to call him disappointing is probably an understatement!
10.MOORHOUSE LAD (20-1) improved steadily and should run his race from a decent draw, lively outsider who could make the three!
11.BORDERLESCOTT (6-1) Doing himself and connections proud, he`s the typical slow maturing sprinter who comes here in great nick and as a realistic chance from a decent sit in 9, the question is, do you takehis last form as being Gospel , if you remove it he would be double figures, seems to save his best for a stiff 5 furlongs and Longchamp doesn`t fit that catergory,on the plus side the going is perfect and sprinters in form are worth following!
12.ABRAHAM LINCOLN (100-1) Can`t understand him running!
13. GREEN MONALASHI (100-1) 60 races in the tank so unlikely we will learn something new, unrealistic!
14.TIZA (40-1) Not the horse he was and as been put in place in much softer races than this!
15.OVERDOSE (9-1) Undefeated sprinting King of East Europe, he`s a real slugger who grinds it out from the front,however,lets take a reality check,he`s never met sprinters of this calibre, i would have put him in the Foret over a turning 7 Furlongs because he could have done a TOYLESOME, i just cannot see him having the pace to match some of these and from Box 15 he will need to hit the lids,furthermore,he`s had a long hard season!, i`ve laid him to take out 5 figures and i will sleep well tonight (hope its the same tomorrow night!)…..Blue square are muppets for only offering 9-2
16.ENTICING (25-1) Not without hope if she puts her best foot forward, would probably prefer faster going!
17. ROCK HARMONIE (100-1) Ran above herself over CD LTO, start box one would be great if she was a trapper but she isn`t, all in all,safe to dismiss!
18. FLEETING SPIRIT (11-2) For me the most natural talent in the race, on her day she would leave this field standing (Has when she stuffed BORDERLESCOTT), against her are the draw,possibly the going,lack of experience and her fumbling at the boxes, if something from an outside box is going to win i wouldn`t look further, i will certainly cover myself on the PMU with her as she`s likely to start at double figures!
19. NATIONAL COLOUR (5-1) If she gets on the bunny it will take a good one to claw her back, at Newmarket the stiff finish caught her out,from an inside box i can see her taking a few legnths out of this field at a vital stage and from then on it will be a question of her seeing the race out, my only doubt would be rain!
20. ONLY ANSWER (20-1) Didn`t beat alot LTO and form would leave her short,however,she`s proven over CD and from a good box she should finish in the ftop half!
CONCLUSION
NATIONAL COLOUR as enough about her to get out on terms,use her early pace and establish enough of a lead to hold off the finishers, i will certainly cover myself with FLEETING SPIRIT despite the draw has if she can get competitive she will burn these off, knowone would deprive BORDERLESCOTT another group one but he probably needs to improve again,the one i don`t like is OVERDOSE, in my opinion connections have made a big mistake not taking in the Foret!
Very good preview Tony. Good luck with your lay of Overdose, who incidentally is the 9/2 2nd fav in the RP forecast
Good field for this and most of the fancied runners except Notional Colour and Borderlescott are drawn high so these two have good chances but I will side with Fleeting Spirit.
Thanks Tony for another excellent in-depth analysis. However, for reasons that are about to come clear, I’m hoping you’re wrong with Overdose!
I’ve actually been following Overdose for a year now, and below I’ve enclosed an e-mail that I sent to a good friend of mine, sent on October 17th last year. I titled it ‘Is This THE BEST 2 YEAR OLD IN THE WORLD??!!??’:
Late on Monday, I received an e-mail from one of my
friends who was in Hungary a couple of weeks ago.
Whilst there, he went to the Kincsem Park racecourse
in Budapest, where Hungarys biggest 2 year old race,
the Group 2 St. Lazslo Cup, was staged. All eyes were
on a horse called Overdose, who in his first race,
over 5 furlongs, ran a quite incredible 58.0 seconds –
that’s faster that the course record at Newmarket!!!I tried to find out about Overdose, then was amazed to
see that someone has actually put all three of his
races on YouTube!! The St. Laszlo is the third race on
the video, and I think you might like to see what
happened!!!http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dl3pO28ykIE
I’m not sure who rode him in the first two races, but
Martin Srnec rode him in the St. Laszlo. Srnec is
Czech, and he crops up all over Central Europe – I’ve
even seen him at Baden-Baden. Quite interestingly,
when Srnec dismounted from Overdose, he said he felt
the horse could win a Group race in Western Europe.
Already comparisons are being drawn with March Groom,
the brilliant Hungarian horse who won a hatful of
Group races in Germany, and was 3rd in the 1998
Grosser Preis von Baden.As for Overdose, he’s by Starborough out of a Warning
mare, so I’m wondering if he’s been bred by either
Godolphin or Khaled Abdullah – he is listed as being
British bred, but details are a bit sketchy. What I do
know is that he’s entered for next years 2000 Guineas
in Hungary, Austria, Germany and Czech Republic.Anyway, have a look at the video, and let me know what
you think. All I know is that I’ve been going around
for the last couple of days, thinking I may have just
seen next seasons Champion Europe Miler!!!
_____________________________________________I kept quiet about Overdose, because, selfishly, I thought if he ever runs in Western Europe, no-one will have heard of him, and maybe I could have a nice bet on him. That changed when the first price for the Abbaye I saw was 9-1 – maybe I was being a bit over-optimistic, but I was hoping for about 25-1!! Also, as Tony has pointed out, Overdose has not met horses of this quality, and he has NEVER won a Group 1. OK, he’s looked great, and he’s beaten Germanys best sprinter, Abbadjinn, twice this season, but even I thought he would make a miler. He has won over 5 furlongs, but it was a class 4 maiden race in Budapest, and apart from the 7 furlongs St. Laszlo Cup, all his wins have been over 6 furlongs.
I’m now fully up to speed with Overdose. I’ve met his owners and trainer at Hamburg, and told them what a fan of the horse I was. They told me about the day they bought him from the Newmarket Sales, and it really is a fairytale. For a few years now, I’ve hoped that a horse from Eastern Europe could come to the West and conquer all – Darsalam did an excellent job (won a Group 1 in Germany), and my all time favourite horse, Registana, proved how good she was at Cheltenham. But as for tomorrow, my heart is screaming Overdose. I SO MUCH want him to win. But Tony is right in my opinion. He’s never raced against this calibre of sprinters. Sure, he beat Starlit Sands and Intrepid Jack at Baden-Baden last time out, but this is different. I just want him to do himself justice. I want people to realise that Central and Eastern Europe CAN produce great horses.
I’ve actually got one of our syndicate horses running in Germany tomorrow. But I won’t be there. I can’t miss Overdose. Not in a Group 1. As I couldn’t make it to Paris, I’ll be round a friends place watching it on TV, and we’ll be cheering Overdose to the rafters. Yes, I think the Abbaye could be a bridge too far. But if he were to win it, I can tell you I’ll have a tear in my eye and a lump in my throat!! Oh yes, and you’ll hear me in most of Europe!!!!
Darren – AngloGerman
Good luck with Overdose Darren, and how great to still see some races on utube! by the way, what happened to Registana’s jockey who had that awful accident?
Good luck with Overdose Darren, and how great to still see some races on utube! by the way, what happened to Registana’s jockey who had that awful accident?
I’ll find out for you. Christian did text me earlier this year to say that he had actually taken a couple of steps, but as far as I know he’s still in the wheelchair.
Darren – AngloGerman
I havent put my money where my mouth is for this one yet but I still really fancy Marchand D’Or for this.
As long as the ‘slight setback’ that ruled Marchand D’or out of the Sprint Cup is not going to be a problem then we should see Marchand D’Or steal another group 1.
On form, the last time that Marchand D’Or run over 5f was at Chantilly where he beat Equiano by a neck on soft ground. Also behind in that race was Captain Gerrard (who I cant touch at all for tomorrow) and Benbaun (who at the time was on a hat-trick run over 5f).
In addition to that, Marchand D’Or was also hampered at the start and still recovered to win over this ‘shortest possible trip’.
Through a form line of Equiano, Marchand D’Or should have the beating of Fleeting Spirt albeit her last run as Ascot was the beginning of Noseda’s stable-shutdown due the illness in the stable.
If Jeremy Noseda has got Fleeting Spirit fit and ready to go here then she would be the main rival to Marchand D’Or in my eyes.
Overdose hasnt met this kind of calibur before and I believe I read elsewhere that Overdose’s main aim is the July Cup next year. This could come too soon and Overdose may learn far more here for world domination next year.
It’s Marchand D’Or’s year – Freddie Head wants this badly and he wont be dissapointed.
9/2 is an absolute steal!
Overdose hasnt met this kind of calibur before and I believe I read elsewhere that Overdose’s main aim is the July Cup next year. This could come too soon and Overdose may learn far more here for world domination next year.
His aim was actually the July Cup THIS year! Unfortunately, the connections didn’t realise that he would have to be supplemented (I think they said it was 35,000 Euros), so they re-routed him there for next year.
Darren – AngloGerman
But if he were to win it, I can tell you I’ll have a tear in my eye!!
So will Tony!
I like that one, made me laugh!!
I tend to be philosophical about these things as ive got plenty of experience (unfortunately) at taking an hit or two!!
Waking up this morning i still feel OVERDOSE is major lay material, i will probably go in the place market too!
Im with Fleeting Spirit. A few bits and pieces to overcome, but shes pure class and stable knows what to do. 7/1 is just fine
I tend to believe that most sprinters need one distance or the otehr and that puts me off Marchand
Overdose was walking out onto the course, got a bit hot and barnstormed through a strapper, landing him/her flat on the turf.
He looked to be sweating up profusely across the neck, or is that part of the coat?
Stall 17 didnt open, so Ryan Moore was just sat their on Fleeting Spirit.
What is going to happen now then? ? ?
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