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Bonjour………Keeping in tune with my knowledge of the European scene i thought i would pop some thoughts down on todays Prix Prince DÒrange (Longchamp 10 furlongs)
My price is in brackets:
RUSSIAN CROSS (5-2) 2KG penalty for latest win when he beat Paul Coles RIVER PROUD by a ridden out 1.5 legnths (over 10 furlongs at Deauville),that form is decent and shows him has progressive,earlier in the year he was beaten 5 legnths by one of todays opponents in NEVER ON SUNDAY, however, unlike against RP where he got the run of things he was messed about during that race,furthermore,his stable where really out of sorts at the time and im putting a line through that form, now he`s found himself he could improve again and i certainly see him as a big player, however, 2KG in France is worth 2 legnths so he`s certainly beatable!
BELLE ET CELEBRE (9-2) Lightly raced but beaten a long way in the Diana,todays race isn`t in that league and a return to form would put him in with a big shout,he`s already proven his merit around this track so although he has a 1.5KG penalty he must be treated with respect, he should finish thereabouts if stripping fit following 3 months off the track!
TRINCOT (13-2) more exposed than most albeit he`s steadily progressive,showed his worth when 6th to the top class TAMAYUZ beaten only 4 legnths,however,looking at the negatives,he looks a miler and not a 10 furlong horse and he needs an end to end gallop to show his best,beatable!
RIVER PROUD (15-8 )Not very often you see real value a UK trained horse with the British Bookies,he`s 100-30 with Corals and in my opinion that should be taken if you cant find better elsewhere,this horse ran the race of his life when he was third to FALCO over a mile, that was a cracking effort considering the horse was upset in the prelimaries and lost a shoe on the way to the start,he wouldn`t load either and then he missed the break and wouldn`t do a tap early doors,some would argue he was being mullish but i would put it down to an unfortunate set of circumstances,he then showed up at Goodwood and despite racing freely buried the opposition,his latest 2nd to RUSSIAN CROSS was far from being progressive,however,he was hardly given a positive ride and on another day we could have seen a differant result,with a 2kg pull he looks a sound bet on a track that will suit him,his tactical speed should give him every advantage…..Sound betting proposition!
AKIEM (40-1) Thought he would be a lot better than he`s turned out,disappointed me once too often!!
NEVER ON SUNDAY (7-1) Corals are reading too much into his beating of RUSSIAN CROSS by offering only 100-30, latest effort shows you his level,he beat a top h`capper BUENOS DIAS by an head in a compact finish, this horse is usually ridden with exagerated waiting tactics and thats unlikey to be optimum in this field, French h`cap mark of 45,5 is a fair evaluation of his ability!
ASHANTEE (20-1) Not bad in her own right and i would fancy her to beat her countryman AKIEM,would prefer soft ground but likely to run her race and might surprise a few and finish a bit closer than anticipated!
CONCLUSION
RIVER PROUD for me to medium/highish stakes,he ticks all the right boxes and with Peslier taking the ride on a turning track he should get him to settle,NEVER ON SUNDAY would be lay of the day,i would lay place too!
10 point win RIVER PROUD at 100-30 with Corals (20 points is maximum)
TRINCOT (13-2) for interests sake
If thats your poisson take the 8`s with Corals, 2.6 a place wont be that on track,10 furlogs is biggest worry!
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