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Betting on horses – can it be taught?

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  • #657
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Any opinions as to whether a complete novice punter could learn how to bet successfully in a short space of time by shadowing a pro and having some intensive one-on-one training? Without going into too much detail there’s a TV program in the offing that is hoping to do just this. He or she will have to front up their own cash (probably £10,000) with a view to turning it into a more meaningful sum, perhaps £100,000, within six months.

    (Edited by Mounty at 7:55 pm on Jan. 5, 2007)

    #35278
    dave jay
    Member
    • Total Posts 3386

    I dont think its possible Mounty .. anyone making that sort of money would need another lesson before the frist one was finished on how to dodge getting knock-backs from the bookies.

    #35279
    FlatSeasonLoverFlatSeasonLover
    Member
    • Total Posts 2065

    Doesn’t it all depend if you have a natural flair for the game or not? Students of the game are likely to have a much greater chance than those who are not involved in the sport in any capacity.

    #35280
    apracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 3089

    <br>Not a chance, especially if they work to such a hopelessly unrealistic target. Any novice, assuming he or she is making their own selections and not just following tips from the ‘expert’, would do well to keep the ten grand intact after six months, let alone add to it.

    Any skill can be taught, but for a novice punter, a bank of £100 is a better idea. Given the stakes involved in turning ten grand into a fortune, the fear factor is going to overwhelm any attempt to teach form analysis and pricing.

    Like sending a virgin on a Club 18-30 holiday armed with a picture book about the birds and the bees. Which sounds a much better idea for a TV show anyway!

    AP<br>

    #35281
    SwallowCottage
    Member
    • Total Posts 1008

    Channel 4 are now probably working on AP’s suggestion for a TV show:biggrin:  I don’t think a novice could learn the knowledge and skills needed in a short space of time. Experience is a big plus and it’s not an easy thing to do.<br>  

    #35282
    cormack15cormack15
    Keymaster
    • Total Posts 8783

    I think they already have programmes like that one AP.

    On a related subject I think the idea of a pro offering ‘seminars’ to novices is an idea with legs (if you pardon the expression). I think it’s been done but there are loads of them in the financial trading sector and I think it’s an opportunity begging to be taken. £250 quid each for a day with a pro and a nice lunch. Any takers?

    I was watching Paul McKenna last night and there are a few pros in racing who could deliver an entertaining day by just delivering the basics (maths of betting, keeping records, how to stay disciplined, how to use exchanges, reading races, etc, etc). Someone with a few stories to throw in and then perhaps in the afternoon some real life betting. <br>

    #35283
    Anonymous
    Inactive
    • Total Posts 17718

    Mounty

    I would think it possible to train a newcomer, (assuming enough nous and aptitude) to become reasonably successful within 6 months.<br> However, anyone who could turn 10k into 100k in that timeframe would be highly unlikely to share that knowledge, let alone have it broadcast to the nation.

    #35284
    davidjohnson
    Member
    • Total Posts 4491

    Quote: from cormack15 on 9:02 pm on Jan. 5, 2007[br]I think they already have programmes like that one AP.

    On a related subject I think the idea of a pro offering ‘seminars’ to novices is an idea with legs (if you pardon the expression). I think it’s been done but there are loads of them in the financial trading sector and I think it’s an opportunity begging to be taken. £250 quid each for a day with a pro and a nice lunch. Any takers?

    I was watching Paul McKenna last night and there are a few pros in racing who could deliver an entertaining day by just delivering the basics (maths of betting, keeping records, how to stay disciplined, how to use exchanges, reading races, etc, etc). Someone with a few stories to throw in and then perhaps in the afternoon some real life betting.

    Surely you remember the tosser on the Centaur advert on the original ATR channel. ‘I attended these Centaur seminars as a novice, and now I’m a racing expert’.  

    #35285
    empty walletempty wallet
    Member
    • Total Posts 1631

    If the pupil has the desire, then teaching them about the great game should be no problem

    However, i think it is very unwise to let someone with no experience start with a bank of 10k

    Start small and build, as  knowledge and confidence grows,  the stakes should naturally increase with a proper staking plan

    #35286
    Mounty
    Member
    • Total Posts 455

    Thanks for your comments. Perhaps they’ll be better off having £9,999 on a 9-1 shot with a pound in reserve for a lottery ticket.

    #35287
    Tete Rouge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 119

    It depends entirely upon the individual …

    #35288
    betlargebetlarge
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2663

    What about Celebrity Big Bet Challenge?

    You get Jade Goody, the wife of a Port Vale player, Mark Ramprakash and Phil "The Power" Taylor in a locked room with a blackboard, some chalk and Mounty.

    Viewers can then vote off…(blah,blah)

    Mike

    #35289
    Tony25
    Member
    • Total Posts 327

    First time with the 18-30 club i was 17,that brings back memories:) ,onto the thread!!

    Instinct,self belief and a feel for what your actually doing are the most important aspects,can they be learnt?

    We all started somewhere and i guess we picked snipets up from others along the way,however,with reference to myself i would say i was 99.5% self educated in the matter.School Bookmaker at 14,working on the course at 18,own licence at 21 (stood the dog tracks),concentrated on pro gambling from 26,took shares and interest in Scandanavian internet bookmakers when i was 35 (Set me up for life), probably one of the top 0.05% gamblers in the world in turns of turnover nowdays,several things i can point out:-

    If i was starting my pro-gambling life off nowdays i would concentrate on sport at the early stage,its easier to get ahead of the market.

    Most UK Bookies are useless and liquidity at Betfair arrives far to late nowdays,i would recommend educating yourself on Asian h`caps , bets of 10k + are standard and easy to place!!

    If your playing with a smaller bank track Betfair in the last 30m mins leading upto the start of lets say a football game and watch for any big line moves especially in away leagues (Scandanavia/Germany etc),then have someone or yourself in place to bet with high street Bookmakers who are unlikely to change price!!

    Have a look at lower league football especially in the likes of Scandanavia,Spain and Holland………….German,Italian,East bloc  Bookmakers are usually exposed once the first info starts filtering through.

    Dont be scared to travel to place a bet and always look for new opportunities for example when U-Bet (Opap Greece) started in Malta they where differant to the average State monopoly in that they where betting to typical UK high street over-rounds of 111.5%,however,unlike our informed Bookmakers these guys issued prices twice a week never changed a price,line swings in UEFA tournements where extreme and on many occassions i was getting 3,7 about a 2,5 shot……………….i wasnt the only one,i would estimate they lost at least 10 million in first 4 months to pros who had spotted opportunity!!

    Try and build a network of contacts and never be shy to remove non performers.

    Always look after people who supply quality info!!

    In short i would think certain aspects of the business are trainable in a short time if you have an half decent student.

    With regards to horseracing its more difficult in that you need more knowledge,however,the rewards are also higher.

    Like a baby you learn to crawl then walk and as you graduate run!!

    Without self belief you have no chance,its like being the employer as opposed to the employee,not a business for your typical conservative!!

    He who dares wins!!

    #35290
    stevedvg
    Member
    • Total Posts 1137

    Any opinions as to whether a complete novice punter could learn how to bet successfully in a short space of time by shadowing a pro

    Depends on who the novice was.

    I think that people who succeed in this game tend to be quite analytical.

    It’s a bit like computer programming (which I used to do), it’s easy if you’re good at it, almost impossible if you don’t have the right kind of thinking.

    And I agree with Alan, even someone who has the raw talent will cock up enough in the first 6 months that they’ll be doing well to tread water.

    And I agree that the bank isn’t reasonable.

    Personally, I started with paper trading and then started putting a few quid on once I saw I was making good decisions.  

    And those small wins gave me the confidence to step up to bigger and bigger amounts.

    If I had started big without the "evidence of experience" to give me confidence, I would have turned to jelly and my methodology would have gone out the window.

    Steve  

    #35291
    tooting
    Member
    • Total Posts 379

    The premise of the mooted programme is of course risible, but I have no problem with the overall concept.

    I was a management trainer for years before I finally became a full-time gambler. With that experience I ‘d say it’s relatively straightforward to provide a  complete novice with a set of step-by-step rules for gambling on the horses so that they make a modest profit.  Indeed it’s a hundred times easier than training someone to be a decent manager!

    In fact I wrote a (sadly unpublished) book a few years back that combined my modest skills as both a trainer and gambler and that aimed to do just that – take a novice by the hand and lead them into profit.

    A friend, and complete novice, started following the book faithfully and has managed to grind out a fair profit to small stakes ever since. Admittedly, another friend read it, took a few bits from it, ignored the rest and continues to bet like a complete twat.  

    As with all things there has to be an element of latent ability plus desire and perseverance!

    <br>

    (Edited by tooting at 11:42 am on Jan. 6, 2007)

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