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I’ve whittled my shortlist down to one. Mister Coffey 12/1. Slightly concerned that his usual hold-up tactics might not be ideal for this but i think he will enjoy the quicker pace and has the raw ability.
No doubt Kilcruit was ultra-impressive the other day but his price, along with Sir Gerhard, isn’t appealing from a betting POV. I’ve taken 16/1 e/w on Three Stripe Life. What he did on his racecourse debut (no previous point experience) was just as impressive as the runs of Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. Lack of experience might count against him but if he can step forward from that debut win then he is a big player. Should be half the price.
I’ll jump straight in with a sub.
OUT
Saint SonnetIN
MinI’m assuming i am allowed to make another sub within the window and don’t need to make both at once?
The ‘outsider of 3’ worked its magic again at the cost of BVD. He travelled well enough but the winner made it a proper test and a lack of match fitness cost BVD at the end. He will improve significantly for that but whether that will be enough to win the CH is doubtful. That said, Epatante was stuffed LTO as well and we’d probably all agree that was likely just a blip.
Nicky’s have been more inconsistent than usual this season but he almost always has them spot on come March. 22/1 is certainly a tempting price for a dual champion imo.
I’m willing to take a chance on Native River for this. Tizzards well out of form but if any horse can shrug off a bug, it’ll be Native River. Santini looking a big doubt now and i just think Native River is a better horse than Bristol De Mai at the track. 3/1 fair enough value.
Sam Brown a non runner again. Seems to be no excuses for pulling him out today. They don’t seem to want to race him
Took a chance on Acting Lass at 16/1. Pulled up on seasonal debut but ran better than the result suggests. Has had wind surgery since and won this race in 2018.
Black Tears ran second last year and is clearly being readied for another crack. Her form in big fields is superb. I can’t understand why she is so big at 40/1? My biggest bet so far for the Festival, each way.
Benson is another one on the shortlist. Not pulled the trigger yet though as not 100% certain he’ll run here or the County. Similar comments apply to Canardier. Immediately penned him for this when taking a fall at the last last year. Not been seen since though and 20/1 seems a bit stingy too.
Most of the intended runners have good form in heavy ground and good course records too. However, Sam Brown stands out for me and has a very capable 5lb claimer aboard in Ben Godfrey. Taken 4/1 single and in a double with Allart earlier on the card.
I have a shortlist of 3 in this so far. The most obvious is Metier who has looked excellent so far over hurdles. A competitive handicap hurdle like this will be a new experience though so his jumping will need to stand the test.
Next up is Mister Coffey. I am convinced that he’s much better than his last run, not that it was too bad or anything. I just think this lad could be more than a handicapper in time. Definitely when sent chasing.
Finally Llandinabo Lad. He should love the furious pace and is still unexposed and improving.
