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Quote from connections re Sir Gerhard…
“You are always slightly concerned when you get to Navan in December with the ground, but he handled it. His pedigree suggests he’ll be better on a bit of nicer ground, being by Jeremy.”
No doubt Kilcruit was ultra-impressive the other day but his price, along with Sir Gerhard, isn’t appealing from a betting POV. I’ve taken 16/1 e/w on Three Stripe Life. What he did on his racecourse debut (no previous point experience) was just as impressive as the runs of Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. Lack of experience might count against him but if he can step forward from that debut win then he is a big player. Should be half the price.
I think anyone looking too deeply into the Kilcruit performance is trying too hard to pick faults in an otherwise superstar performance. Sure there was heavy in the going description, but there’s nothing getting near him next month no matter the conditions.
Dave Jennings of the RP said whilst Kilcruit was visually impressive he said the race fell apart. And out of the two Sir Gerhard is his preference. So i’m not the only one with a view that it aint done and dusted yet.
Not sure the race fell apart. The time would usually be an indicator of that. He ran 1 second slower than honeysuckle, without any form of extension. Could have comfortably gone sub 4 mins, which is very rarely seen on heavy ground. It was a monstrous performance.
The only viable argument for me is that we don’t know how good sir gerhard is – he may very well be able to respond to Kilcruit and go toe to toe, and I expect he will actually.
Yeah mike im not saying having a different view from kilcruit is wrong by any means, In my opinion the race is done and dusted though, nothings beating kilcruit
But SG won on pretty bottomless ground and he won well, his prior two runs where also on soft, so theres no evidence he will be “better” for slightly better ground, regardless if elliot sais it or not.
nothing passed the cromwell horse in second other than kilcruit and they werent going to, that doesnt point to kilcruit winning off a race falling apart, so im not sure where jennings is getting that from, presumably because 3rd and 4th stayed on the best from the back, thats an incorrect view though. regardless, you could have ran that race anyway you liked, kilcruit would have won and won in that manner.
The race fell apart imo
Ramillies walked over the line miles back
Letsbeclearaboutit must be a proper stayer to maintain second as he was being driven along miles out and was up with a strong pace all the way around
He is one who will be of interest in staying novice hurdles
Kilcruit went past already beaten horses
Hed have beaten them in a slowly run race too but its a stretch to think hed have been as impressive whilst doing it
That doesn’t mean he’s not going to win this though, he could win it cosily
I just wouldn’t have him as far ahead of sir gerhard as some do and iv not backed either of them
The race Sir Gerhard beat letsbeclearaboutit in was a slowly run tactical race, Gavin Cromwell said he thought they went too slowly
Personally I’d much much rather back monkfish or envoi at their current prices than kilcruit at 6/4
Personally I’d much much rather back monkfish or envoi at their current prices than kilcruit at 6/4
Agree with this.
When Ramilles went to take on Letsbeclearaboutit at the front, i presume it was because they thought he was a staying type and if he was to win he’d need to get going earlier and force the pace more. It backfired on his part, but helped Kilcruit even more as IMO, it softened Letsbeclearaboutit up even more. Now, Kilcruit would’ve won doing handstands regardless, but probably not like he was just finishing a 4 furlong canter.
Patrick’s new article in the RP he also noted how fast it was, he said he shouted to one of the jockeys, “this is like the Grand Annual” or something and that was pretty early in the race.
@Mike007 lol, i just noticed you used Dave Jennings as an example of someone who agrees with your view…..dear me he’s a decent listen on Upping The Ante, but not an opinion to take seriously.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Taking it away from Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard for a moment, it was good to see the Mullins mare that won the last race give a boost to Eileendover.
I know she is unlikely to run here and I doubt she could beat Kilcruit but it was good to see the visual impression she made backed up by a bit of form. Would really like to see her turn out to be a good class performer for Pam Sly.
Jack like all media tipsters, (and us), with horses near the front of the market sometimes he will be right and sometimes he will be wrong.
Yeah of course Mike, my point was more at the surprise at you using him as a source to back your point up. You’d be as well going to your local Ladbrokes (in better times lol) and picking the punter who’s sat there all day and hearing what he has to say!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Cant see the angle in anyway how it fell apart, one of the horses who set the pace finished a clear 2nd and without kilcruit would have been a top class winner in itself, it doesnt bump the cromwell horses performance up because he was able to maintain it, he ran a solid race, it just discredits everything else in behind that they couldnt go with it
2 horses closed into 3rd and 4th about 10 lengths behind the second, they where never getting near 2nd
2nd never finished there because the race fell apart, he was just better than everything else, now if 3rd and 4th where within a few lengths at the line from being 10+ A few furlongs out thats a different story, but they were the best part of 10 and 20 lengths behind the 2nd and the winner who at no point came off the bridle
If two horses tearaway in front by 20 lengths in a race, who is usually the horse who is most inconvenienced from it bar the front two? The definitive answer of that is the horse in a clear 3rd position who usually is the one setting the true pace of the race for the runners in behind him, 2nd never came back to the pack atall. And 3rd won the race, doesnt point to the usual race falling a part stat, however, maybe it did and im blindsided by the performance, but i wont be convinced of anything other than a superstar won it until this race is done
Sir gerhard hasnt a prayer if kilcruit can replicate that, can he though? We will find out… hes a touch short now but at the same time he cant really be any bigger can he?
And i cant disagree regarding monkfish being more a cert, thats a different arguement to whats going on here totally though
Simon Rowlands has done the sectionals
The race fell apart ham
No doubt about it
Pam Sly has confirmed that Eileendover misses Cheltenham and goes to Aintree instead.
FF, as much as i dont mind simon rowlands, the sectionals may say the race fell apart in theory and to his previous analytics, but i still wont accept it, the manner in which the horse won and the manner in which 2nd finished 2nd is not indicative of a typical “race falling apart” conclusion
Because simon rowlands said his sectional timing sais it doesnt make it “so”
If there was ever proof needed that sectionals are utter nonsense its this.
Thats not to say that times of races etc cant be useful, but drawing a conclusion of “kilcruit won because the race fell apart” is utter nonsense
But your entitled to believe in sectionals pointing to that of course, not taking that away from anyones personal preference,
If they meant anything more than an opinion, He would be on an island somewhere that he owns and not writing for ATR. So i wont take it as definitively as you did that his opinion is the be allAnswer me this though, ff
If kilcruit replicates that in the CB and the sectionals say the same again, what conclusion is left?
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