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I agree Circus Maximum is underated but just feel that like last year something will be too good for him. He’s out to 12.0 on betfair exchange that is a worry.
Its a hard race to call but I can’t not have a bet in a 1m Group 1 so have backed Mohaather at 3.9 . His last run was visually very impressive and he could be very good.
Massive Magical fan but have sneaking suspicion she might not run so have backed Japan for this and Telecaster (York Stakes) in a E/W double.
Battaash’s highest rated win ever was last year at York – the track is not an issue. Anyway! Don’t want to hijack this into a Bataash thread!
I think 2/1 is a cracking price for Ghaiyyath and 10f round York should be perfect for him.
I am actually trying to get on Ghaiyyath at 2/1 but don’t have an WH account and live abroad so its hard to open one. They are also best prices Battaash for the Nunthorpe at 11/10. Double pays 5.3/1
I wonder why only 2 bookies have priced this up?
Looks like Kameko will likely run here now though not 100%.
“”Sheikh Fahad’s racing and bloodstock adviser David Redvers told Nick Luck’s Daily Podcast: “There’s been lively in-house debate and Sheikh Fahad is keen to go with Andrew’s preferred option, which at the moment looks like it will be the Sussex.””
I’d much rather back him at 5/1 than Siskin at 6/4.
You can make a case for lots of these runners but 9/1 about Marie’s Diamond seems way too big so have thrown him in a little each way double with Hello Youmzain in the July Cup.
Love looked very impressive but would the high chance of softer ground in the Arc be a worry?
Despite her Dam’s sire being Pivotal Love has form figures of 352 on ground worse than Good and form figures of 411111 on Good or better.
Nice result for followers of The Monster!
Where next for him I wonder? Mr Applebey being a bit reluctant in post race interview to commit. Juddmonte at York would be my choice and maybe a interesting clash with Kameko.
Made up that he won after such a short break as I was pretty sure he needed 5 weeks plus (and hence had only a small bet plus a reverse forecast with Enable as a saver)
The more I look at this race the more I am coming around to Vatican City. Especially now hes 11/1. He has the joint 2nd best RPR (along with English King) coming into the race but for me his G1 form is much superior to English King’s listed form.
He does have question marks on whether he will stay but as a Galileo and with dominant classicity and 12 stamina points there has to be hope. There is some more hope on breeding with his full brother Taj mahal staying and winning over 12f (albeit in lesser races in Australia).
I just watched the Irish 2,000 Guineas a few times and he stayed on really well, exactly how you want a Derby runner to stay on over a mile. Pushed along a little bit mid race, then was boxed in. When the break came he didn’t have instant acceleration but took a few strides to reach top speed and was staying on really strongly on the line.
Have topped up my bet on Vatican City and hes now my main hope.
Must be said Kameko looking very tempting now at 4/1 also but his dosage index of 2.64 and 2 stamina points just kills it for me.
Very difficult race to work out!
Very hard race to call in my opinion. Not one runner who has a good profile as a Derby winner on my trends.
Have backed Mogul Antepost however and won’t lay it off, but not very confident. Especially after the draw. I’m no paddock judge but could see he was fatter than the mother-in-law at Ascot so hoping he comes on a ton for that. He’ll need to improve a stone but his profile is very similar to Japan who improved 11 lbs from the Dante to the Derby and he hadn’t eaten half as many pies over the winter.
One I do like at bigger price is Highland Chief (Who has been tipped up a fair bit and price isn’t great now. EDIT: hes 25/1 I thought he was in to 12/1. 25/1 is great price i think.)
Decent 2 year old form including third in the Chesham.
Galileo and Montjeu in his pedigree.
Decent dosage profile (36 points with 17 stamina points).
His dam was decent (106 RPR)
Trainer has won the Derby.
He only really fails my trends by not having a high enough RPR but every runner fails that except Kameko.So for me:
Mogul win
Highland Chief e/w (not backed yet)Also had a small bet on Vatican City.
Thoughts on (the monster) Ghaiyyath for this race? I am massive fan and was very confident for the Coronation Cup.
However I am a believer that he needs a long break between runs. Is 4 weeks too short?
Aidan O’Brien says some of his Irish Derby Runners may run at Epsom:
“It’s very possible. I spoke to John [Magnier], Michael [Tabor] and Derrick [Smith] yesterday and the entries are being made on Monday. They’ll wait to see what everybody thinks before they decide to make an entry or not. If any of them have come out of the race exceptionally well and they want to make an entry, then that’s what will happen.
I’d definitely fancy Tiger Moth if he ran.
