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I like messing around with trends for the Grand National. Posting these here if anyone finds them interesting:
-14/17 of the past winners hit their best ever RPR in that season
– 12/17 of the past winners hit their best ever RPR last time out or penultimate start
– 13/17 of the past winners achieved an RPR 6 or more pounds higher than their OR for the Grand NationalSo ideally you want something which has achieved an RPR well above their current rating on their previous start:
Tiger Roll was the only recent double winner and he was even more of a likely winner on these trends in 2019 than 2018. 2019 he was +12 LTO whereas in 2018 he didnt qualify.
Minnie Hauk looks the most likely winner to me. Has a lot going for her.
However, I am a sucker for a Japanese Horse. And seeing as the Japanese won 3/3 trials and the Europeans dont look so great this year. I do like Croix Du Nord as the most highly touted of the Japanese runners.
Saying all that the only bet I have had so far is Gesora as I liked her run after a break behind Aventure and is open to improvement.
Lots of rain and storms for South East over the next few days. Hope it doesn’t get too soft.
Agree with Goliath was a very easy winner last year. That form looks pretty good with arc winner bluestocking and ultra reliable rebels romance behind. As long as decent pace should have a great chance again. 7/1 looks massive.
This could be a good renewal if Rosallion, Dancing Gemini, Notable Speech, Tamfana, Fallen Angel , Haatem , Sardinian Warrior etc
all line upI like the look of Trinity college. Beautifully bred dubawi x Hermosa (dual guineas winner). Should be fit after easy win at Naas.
Vanilier was running on well in the cross country. Lost 10 lengths going the wrong way early on too which didn’t help. Might add him to intense raffles.
I really like the look of Shin Emperor in this.
Full brother to Arc Winner Sottsass.
Ran a great trial in the Irish Champion, doing his best work at the end after traffic problems.
Stays 12f really well as shown in the Japanese Derby.Could be the one to finally do it for the Japanese (even though its French bred).
Derby looks a real head scratcher this year.
I quite fancy Dancing Gemini at the prices but not a definite runner.
By Camelot out of an Australia mare. The step up in trip should suit. Was staying on nicely for 2nd in the French 2000.
20/1 EW
All over Stradivarius now at 11/10 on exchanges!
Didn’t JG describe the Arc as an exercise canter or something similar? Was nowhere near a hard race. Same can be said for the Prix Foy. He should be spot on for this I think.
People are using his defeat by Kew Gardens as a reason to oppose him but he still ran to a big figure that day and Kew Gardens is a class stayer and better than anything in this field. Plus Strad was 8/13 that day and you can get odds against for this.
He may get beat but even money is a gift imo.
I have a funny feeling Champions day will be suprisingly be good for favourite backers this year.
Wow what an exciting race . Capped off an incredible days racing for me, 3 winners and a snk 2nd.
Nice draw for Sottsass. Not so much luck Stradivarious backers though, will be hard for him to get a nice position from that draw.
Thanks for the headsup @Frenchy15.
Massive shame she is out must be said.
When is the draw by the way?
