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peter.h. Why are you backing against Mullins so far out?
The Real Whacker’s entry reminds me of Silviniaco Conti (PU first circuit) or Holywell (F, 2nd) running in 2016, or Tea For Two running in 2019 (PU 29th).
Screams that they don’t know what to do with him after three pretty poor runs this season, so hope this test brings him back. Could you help me understand why you would bet on that happening? What’s your thinking there, please?
While I would have liked to see L’Homme Presse in the race, think this is a year too late and am relieved that the horse doesn’t go, as I would have foreseen another pulled up at the 28th after being outpaced once they have run three miles, and that would have been an unedifying end to his career.
I can barely rationalise my selections to myself, nevermind to others! But I’ll give it a go…
Why am I backing against Mullins? Pig-headedness, in short.
The Real Whacker has always looked a National type in my mind. I wouldn’t read a thing into his runs this season as this has been the plan since probably this time last year. He was entered in this last year after a half decent season, so I don’t really buy into the idea that this is a last roll of the dice with him. They obviously just fancied another go at a grade 1 so went for the Bowl instead. He was due to carry 11-4 off a mark of 159 last year, but now carries 10-9 off a mark of 151; that might be a sign of his decline, but it might also be an opportunity identified by connections. He might not be good enough against “hidden grade 1 horses”, but he’s 100/1 (even bigger if you shop around for bonuses) and I think he’s worth a go.
L’Homme Presse has been running consistently all season, one of which in a staying handicap off a mark of 162 so was clearly capable pf being competetive off a mark of 164 and his staying on fifth in the Gold Cup was a perfectly good performance to set him up for a National tilt. I actually really fancied him to run well.
At the end of the day the Grand National is a race that holds more sentimental value to me than any other race (or most other days/occasions) and there will always be a bit of heart ruling head with some selections. Half of the fun is making cases for anything with four legs.
What’s a tenner between friends anyway?
I hardly think you needed to justify your selections, peter, but I think you’ve done so rather well! The Real Whacker wouldn’t be the first erstwhile grade 1 horse to be revitalised by the National challenge, even if the fences aren’t what they were, and I’ve also lobbed a hopeful ew bet in his direction at 3 figure odds.
As for going against Mullins at this early stage, or any other, why wouldn’t you? He might have the winner but they’re are plenty in with chances against him.“Love the ‘Already advised’ Wilts!😄”
Thought i’d better say so, Oscar, in case someone accused me of quoting inflated prices
I’ve sadly lost all interest in race that is unrecognisable from when I first started watching it in the early 1970s.
Saying that it looks as though it’s become a race for young horses as with the Gold Cup most likely due to the much weaker fences and reduced distance. No winner aged 10 or over in the last 10 runnings.
All the trends were turned on their head and the thought of a novice (or maiden chaser) winning the National would have been unthinkable not that long ago.
The National owes Richie McLernon one, after Sunnyhillboy, so I would love to see him win it on Johnny Who. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Spillane’s Tower go for the Bowl so JP ensures that Johnny gets a run. The Real Whacker and old Mr Vango are both very well handicapped on old form but have shown no spark recently , though at huge odds I probably won’t resist having a small each way flutter.
My current picks…
Haiti Couleurs 16-1 ew 4 places
Johnnywho 20-1 ew 5 places
Iroko 6-1 free bet
Captain Cody 20-1 free bet
Monty’s Star 20-1 free bet
Gorgeous Tom 33-1 free bet
Lecky Watson 33-1 free bet
Now Is The Hour 33-1 free bet
High Class Hero 40-1 free bet
Quai De Bourbon 40-1 free betMeant be for ast dry for mostly rest if the week can see Spillane Tower coming out and Johnnywho in
Added Johnnywho
Vf x
Any chance of Twig making it as well?
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.He’d be desperately unlucky not to get in, Red Rum. I’m hopeful, but not entirely confident.
I’ve a feeling Firefox is going to go for the Topham instead, but unless one of those entered in the Bowl reroutes (struggling to think which of them will) he might just be missing out. Which is a shame.
Twigs in Red Rum 77
Johnnywho is in to( Spillane’s Tower and Now Is The Hour not declared NITH injured out for season, ST goes for the bowl)
Vf x
I like messing around with trends for the Grand National. Posting these here if anyone finds them interesting:
-14/17 of the past winners hit their best ever RPR in that season
– 12/17 of the past winners hit their best ever RPR last time out or penultimate start
– 13/17 of the past winners achieved an RPR 6 or more pounds higher than their OR for the Grand NationalSo ideally you want something which has achieved an RPR well above their current rating on their previous start:
Tiger Roll was the only recent double winner and he was even more of a likely winner on these trends in 2019 than 2018. 2019 he was +12 LTO whereas in 2018 he didnt qualify.
Since we now have the plastic National recent trends would suggest you need a 1st or 2nd season chaser who hasn’t run over fences more than 10 times, who has previously run in a race with 24 or more runners, aged under 10, won over at least 22 furlongs, ran in a Grade 1 or Class 1 that season and had never run over the Aintree plastic fences before.
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