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Cashed out on my Treble (Love as final leg) for a free bet on Love. I get a free bet at 7/1 so that will do me.
I doubt she will run though.
Rouget quite bullish today on Sottsass in the Racing Post.
Arc been the target all year which is a huge positive, ground no issue. Have taken some of the 10/1 each way 4 places.
I am a bit disappointed that its going to be run on heavy ground. I have Love as the 3rd leg of a treble but not as confident now. She could still win of course but there are some doubts there.
Am I mad for thinking Telecaster might have an each way squeak at 20/1+?
Great 2 year old form beating Too Darn Hot in the Dante. Then flopped in Derby and Eclipse and had a full year off. Obviously something not right with him at all.
His comeback run was very encouraging just 1 /1/4 lengths behind subsequent Prince of Wales Winner Lord North. Not a bad effort after 337 days off the track. and inadequate trip (in my opinion)
Easy Grp 3 win in France next then a crappy run at York.
Then LTO absolutely bolted up by 6 lengths on heavy over 1m 4 1/2 furlongs in France. So maybe thats the secret to this horse a real good test of stamina on soft ground.
Telecaster has bags of stamina in his pedigree, being by New Approach out of a Shirocco Mare. Heavy ground no problem at all for him.
He is very lightly raced with just 9 lifetime starts so its not impossible he’ll find the required 10 lbs of improvment to win or place.
He’s not rock solid selection by any means bu I am quite tempted for a small play each way.
EDIT just typed this out then read this:
Breaking News – Telecaster to miss Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 🏇🇫🇷
Telecaster owner’s representative Mark Weinfeld told PA Racing – 🗣️”It’s a real shame, but this is what can happen with horses – he’s just wasn’t 100 per cent sound this morning”Lucky I didnt have a bet on him yet. Nearly talked myself into having one!
Looks an interesting little race this. I am a Benbatl fan but Regal Reality at 11/1 looks a decent E/W bet.
He looked good at Salisbury on penultimate start over 1m on GF and can forgive his last run on soft.
With 1m on GF again he can go well for Sir Michael at a decent price.
Backed the Monster in every race this year and gutted he lost this. However I think he is well due a rest after a hard season – not sure if just over 4 weeks is a long enough rest before Champions Day, I am hoping it is.
If he had to be beat I am glad it was by Magical who is my favourite Mare in training by a mile.
Couldn’t resist a little of the 6/4 about Ghaiyyath. Sounds as if this race is the plan and looks like the weather will be fairly mixed all week so it shouldn’t come up too soft.
I’ve gone from thinking this is a no bet race to thinking regal reality is a massive price.
With classics I like to look at trends. I dont have a set of trends that I collected over the years like I do for the Guineas and Derby so I googled around and found one on the Against the Crowd website. It was written in August 2016 so I updated it with the last 4 winners of the race.
The stats are:
1.Average combined winning distance of Sire and Damsire 19.4+ 30/32 winners
2.Total of Solid + Professional points in the dosage profile = 5+. 28/32 winner
3.Total of Dosage Points = 16+ 31/36 winners.
4.Ran to 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts. 18/19 winners.
5.Ran at least twice over 12f or at least once over more than 12f. 18/20 winners.So the stats were very strong but I assumed that would mean most entries would pass them.
I only looked at the top 10 in the betting so far.
Santiago 5/5 trends
Pyledriver 2/5 trends
Hukum 5/5 trends
English King 5/5 trends
Tiger Moth 3/5 trends
Serpentine 4/5 trends
Military March 3/5 trends
Al Aasy 3/5 trends
Dawn Patrol 4/5 trends
Delphi 3/5 trendsI only use trends as a starting point or as part of the picture. But the one I liked before this was HUKUM who ran a lovely race last time and looked to have a really good attitude.
He hits 5/5 of the trends so I will be backing him I think. He’s a cracking each way bet I think at the price now. Just not sure if he will line up.
Haven’t bet yet but I think HUKUM is my pick.
Agree with @mike987654 11/4 very tempting.
Benbatl is good form so far this year with form figures 113 (though not run since Feb) His 5 length win in a Grp2 at Newmarket is the best form on offer from those likely to line up.
Ground looks 50/50 though. Will watch the weather first before betting.
Seems the general consensus is Yazaman is overpriced. Isn’t Lauded a huge price at 3 x the price then?
Yazaman seemed a bit of a difficult ride last time out (was it he hated the track?) and he only just beat Lauded in the final strides.
Not sure why Lauded is such a big price? Any insight please?
Devious Company’s form is miles above the rest of these they would have to improve massively to beat him.
Taken the 2/1.
Backed Manuela De Vega also I think her form against Fanny Logan is as good as anything else here (bar Love). Was hoping for soft ground but the forecast is hot and sunny now.
I have seen better 4/9 shots than Love.
