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Point taken Frenchy regarding the draw. Will keep an eye out on who is drawn 1 to 9.
Well he’s ridden Raabihah since her career started and also Sottsass more often than not recently, so you’d imagine so…Guyon ain’t a bad substitute though + it’s clear Sottsass holds the better form going into the race than the filly. The way Rouget spoke of her though, you’d have thought he’d pick her. Perhaps it’s a nudge as to how they think she’ll handle the likely going….
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I am a bit disappointed that its going to be run on heavy ground. I have Love as the 3rd leg of a treble but not as confident now. She could still win of course but there are some doubts there.
Am I mad for thinking Telecaster might have an each way squeak at 20/1+?
Great 2 year old form beating Too Darn Hot in the Dante. Then flopped in Derby and Eclipse and had a full year off. Obviously something not right with him at all.
His comeback run was very encouraging just 1 /1/4 lengths behind subsequent Prince of Wales Winner Lord North. Not a bad effort after 337 days off the track. and inadequate trip (in my opinion)
Easy Grp 3 win in France next then a crappy run at York.
Then LTO absolutely bolted up by 6 lengths on heavy over 1m 4 1/2 furlongs in France. So maybe thats the secret to this horse a real good test of stamina on soft ground.
Telecaster has bags of stamina in his pedigree, being by New Approach out of a Shirocco Mare. Heavy ground no problem at all for him.
He is very lightly raced with just 9 lifetime starts so its not impossible he’ll find the required 10 lbs of improvment to win or place.
He’s not rock solid selection by any means bu I am quite tempted for a small play each way.
EDIT just typed this out then read this:
Breaking News – Telecaster to miss Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 🏇🇫🇷
Telecaster owner’s representative Mark Weinfeld told PA Racing – 🗣️”It’s a real shame, but this is what can happen with horses – he’s just wasn’t 100 per cent sound this morning”Lucky I didnt have a bet on him yet. Nearly talked myself into having one!
The last three stayer to run in the Arc Adross, 5th from a wide draw, 2nd beaten a snk. Westener 2nd beaten 2L rode by Olivier Peslier who is on Strad, Order of St George 3rd. Strad must have a great chance of at least placing.
The last three stayer to run in the Arc Adross, 5th from a wide draw, 2nd beaten a snk. Westener 2nd beaten 2L rode by Olivier Peslier who is on Strad, Order of St George 3rd. Strad must have a great chance of at least placing.
You need to take those examples in isolation though. Order of St George for example was running very well over just 2F further. Strad has almost exclusively been campaigned over 2miles + since he ran in the Leger. It’s only this season they’ve tried to make him into an Arc horse just because, well why not? Is this going to be his last run ever? I think maybe, no?
Order of SG was also 14/1 the first time he tried. Strad is a horse people love a lot and that’s now reflected in the price. 6/1 in places is absolutely ridiculously short!
I wouldn’t be too downhearted KrisKin yet, Love looks well above anything in here, including Enable. She’s a machine. There are some comments from AOB, saying it’s not ideal the ground, but she is now a much stronger filly. It’s a paid content piece in the RP. Does anyone have the actual interview they can post?
I was against Love if the ground was very testing, but I actually think if AOB thinks she might handle it because she’s strengthened up now, we should take those comments on board. She is drifting to a really backable price at the moment.
But for now, the horse that I’m actually very keen on now is Sottsass. I’ve changed my mind from yesterday having spent all morning looking at it again. He is definitely overpriced, has surely been campaigned for this all year, goes on the track and ground as we know from placing last year. He has to improve a lot to win it, it’s a 6Lbs swing v Enable from last year, but I can see him placing and the odds are way too much for a proven horse.
I think Raabihah has had the ground go against her, her breeding profile doesn’t scream heavy stayer in a bog if that’s what happens. It’s a big ask for a young inexperienced horse.
So I think Sottsass is so overpriced, that I’ve taken a big risk on the draw and backed him already.
Sottsass 14/1 EW
Now praying for a low draw!
Just before the Arc trials JC Rouget said the horses that he saw winning was either Love or his horse Raabihah. The bubble was burst when Raabihah got beaten. I don’t think he has the winning horse going into the race unless he is keeping something up his sleeve or the draw ends up massively in his favour somehow.
Well so far, the best performance has been put up by Gosden who once again got an owner to swerve the race with a horse that was a realistic danger.
SHL
To be fair to JG, i think there’s a fair chance Mishriff might not see out 1m4 on heavy. Although, i do agree that in a different yard he’d be given a go.
Just before the Arc trials JC Rouget said the horses that he saw winning was either Love or his horse Raabihah. The bubble was burst when Raabihah got beaten.
She’d certainly need to improve, and perhaps the ground has gone against her, but i wouldn’t be saying “bubbles burst” yet with Raabihah, 5 runs and didn’t travel well last time.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I came to the conclusion that the bubble had burst from what he said in his post race comments.
What did he say Mike i missed it? Tried googling but can only see stuff from Angus Gold.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!He basically said she was winning against lesser opposition, and she didn’t pass her test upped in grade.
Was it this?
https://www.newschain.uk/sport/raabihah-not-ruled-out-arc-reckoning-32371
It was the Racing Manager who said it, JCR is still very sweet on her it would appear
These are the pre race comments
It’s not necessarily a negative for Sottsass that, he’s just making the point that Love and Raabihah are two exceptional fillies that have a big weight allowance here and must be favs. (Raabihah obviously argueable).
There is even an argument to say that even as sweet as JCR is on Raabihah, Demuro has still picked Sottsass, that’s a pointer to Sottsass.
Would like to see some comments from JCR on Sottsass. I have the option of cashing it out if I don’t feel it and/or the draw is rubbish. I think he’ll go shorter before the weekend
There is a possibility that he would not stay.
However there was no heavy ground forecast when the decision was made to go elsewhere and he has been finishing off his 10F races very impressively. I suspect Frankie had plenty to say about it also. Anyhow, cest la vie. My other fancy was telecaster who is now out.
Serpentine at the odds, but really I dont know. I dont think the final field is working out as strong as it looked a few months ago.
SHL
No Frenchy, I saw the interview on TV.
Summarised here…
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/tarnawa-towers-in-prix-vermeille/184268
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