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There is even an argument to say that even as sweet as JCR is on Raabihah, Demuro has still picked Sottsass, that’s a pointer to Sottsass.
That could just mean that out of the 2 he now feels Sottsass has a better chance but that they are still up against it to win.
Would like to see some comments from JCR on Sottsass.
I don’t think he will be going too negative about Sottsass so close to the race. It will be the usual ‘he is fit and well and we are looking forward to the race’ stuff I expect.
Rouget quite bullish today on Sottsass in the Racing Post.
Arc been the target all year which is a huge positive, ground no issue. Have taken some of the 10/1 each way 4 places.
Tougher for Sottsass this time not getting the 3 yr old allowance.
Rouget believes he won’t win the race as mentioned here.
Sottsass’s final gallop yesterday morning seemed to go well. Got to guess the jockey made his decision after they both worked.
That’s the answer :
SOTTSASS this morning last workout pic.twitter.com/4tRGtHm8Il— Horse Racing Chrono (@HorseRacingChro) September 29, 2020
Thanks for Sharing that, good link Mike. He didn’t say he won’t win the Arc though, he said he shares opinion that he hasn’t shown the form this year which entitles him to win an Arc. Which he hasn’t. But he adds that’s because he’s not gone hard on him at all to get him ready and fresh for this, which has been his main aim all season it appears.
He also doesn’t say he think he will or I hope he will finish in the first 3, he said I expect him to finish in the first 3.
That’s quite a bullish statement in an Arc.
I also still can’t see any negatives about Raabihah, I don’t think he’s lost any faith in her at all. Obviously he mentioned the ground is an unknown and personally I think it’s too much of an ask for her, especially if she gets drawn high.
If Sottsass gets drawn low I’ll be very happy with 14/1 EW. He has to improve a lot to win. It’s not unlikely but I’d imagine at least one horse will end up better than him on the day, but you never know. If Love hates the ground and Enable gets drawn out in the carpark, he’s got a very good chance at 14/1.
He is 6Lbs worse off v Enable this year and Enable beat him by 1.5L last year. So two things have to happen to reverse that. Enable has to lose form and Sottsass needs to improve.
Sottsass will hopefully have naturally improved with age and Enable ran 3 times this year with an average RPR of 122 vs 3 times last year with an average RPR of 126. She has reportedly needed much more time to get fit this year, she’s been campaigned very carefully and it looks entirely probable, that she is not quite the same horse at 6 years old. If she then gets drawn out wide and Sottsass gets a low draw, I can see form getting reversed.
A lot of if and buts, but when I saw 14/1 was available and all that factored in, I knew it was a good price.
Today I think.
From French Galop.
ENGAGEMENT SUPPLEMENT. Mercredi 30 Septembre 2020 11h30 ==
Supplements must be due to happen, quite a few bookies have removed their weekend Longchamp prices.
As you say, Rouget has not gone hard this season at all to get him ready and fresh for this, but neither has Gosden with Enable. And she is better off at the weights with him this time as well. I did say in a few posts earlier that he wasn’t going to be too negative about the horse to the media so close to the race and so far as I expected. If the money is already down its ok that one interprets his comments more optimistically, that’s only natural. Trainer comments can tie one up in knots at times too, a positive vibe can still lead to a defeat and a negative vibe can still lead to a win. So I mainly stick with the evidence on track and what I seen and interpret from that.
So my own assessment of the race at this time is, with the expected ground conditions, and draw pending, that Enable will beat the non 3 year olds, with the fly in the ointments being Love (classy and getting weight, but ground an unknown), and In Swoop (getting weight, will love the ground and unexposed, but class unknown).
Lol, but Mike you used Rouget’s comments to conclude Raabihah’s bubble had burst?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!That’s pretty much where I am with Sottsass. I didn’t consider anything from JCR before selecting. With trainer comments, in the UK it’s easier to build up a mental database of trainer comments. EG, if they are normally bland and neutral comments, but suddenly positive, then take it on board, but I don’t know JCR that well to be fair.
I do generally like it when trainers say, “I expect this” though, I think it’s quite bold and while it’s obviously not a given, it means Sottsass is spot on for this.
Richard Hannon is always a good example of how to take trainer comments. He has about 10 “Guineas Horses” every year! Lol! I ignore pretty much everything he says and just look at his horses form.
But using JCR’s comments together with the formguide, must give Sottsass a very very good chance of placing if he gets a low draw.
Serpentine, I am considering now also for sure. He fits all the trends and on his Derby win has am excellent chance. It comes down to whether that Derby form is a write off or whether he was impressive. Hard to say, but value is key
Not really Jack. The bubble had burst in the race I saw last time. His post race comments just echoed to a large degree the performance.
With Serpentine its the ground that’s the unknown. Got stuffed on soft first time though it would be harsh to judge him on a debut run regarding the ground. All his form after has been on decent ground so it may be he gets hassled up front and gets gobbled up late. Wouldn’t put anyone off ew as he gets the weight, however in my mind, draw pending, I don’t see him as a Sea The Stars type pulling off the Derby/Arc double on that ground. I could be wrong of course, he might be a superstar.
It was on the softside of Good at Epsom definitely. (officially they described it as Good, but it wasn’t).
I’m not that worried with the ground, as I don’t think they’d bother supplementing him if he wasn’t going to handle it. Not like they are short of money, but they’d might as well save him for something else.
He has a good staying pedigree, so as long as he doesn’t hate the ground, he should be strong at the finish in comparison to some others. Guess it’s always a questionmark when it’s unproven, but he for me, is potentially the fly in the ointment. I’m not really buying into In Swoop, just 4 runs, masses to find for a young horse, think everyone has jumped on a “Staying German Pedigree” bandwagon there.
If you look at the big shock when Solemia won in a Bog, her form was much more solid and established and she got the weight allowance. In Swoop was “outpaced” by Mogul in the GPP. I get that a bog might suit, but any horse getting “outpaced” by Mogul surely isn’t good enough to win an Arc?
So Serpentine is the potential fly and now he’s confirmed I’m adding him. Might still change this on the draw news
Serpentine 14/1 EW
Sottsass 14/1 EWI haven’t jumped on any pedigree bandwagon myself with In Swoop it was the post race comments after the German Derby that got me thinking.
“He was a horse with little experience going into the race, but had improved quite a lot from the Greffulhe,” explained the Chantilly-based conditioner. “Ronan [Thomas] gave him a beautiful ride and it went exactly as we had planned, which was to avoid all the scrimmaging in the race. I knew he would quicken well from the top of the straight and I’m sure he will improve more. There is nothing for him now until September and the G1 Grand Prix de Paris, so we will bring him back for that.” The winning rider, celebrating a career high of his own, added, “We knew there’d be some pace beforehand so we decided it would be best to give him a chance to find his own rhythm. As expected, it was fast and that’s what he did. I started to get an idea where to go on the final bend and down the middle was the best way home. He can be a little bit lazy at times, but he’s a big baby who only started his season two months’ ago. He’s still learning, he hasn’t finished improving and I think he will get better race by race.”
The Arc trial gave me some hope that this horse is still on the improve, bonus is in the Arc he gets his ground. At 25s it was worth an ew anyway.
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