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With classics I like to look at trends. I dont have a set of trends that I collected over the years like I do for the Guineas and Derby so I googled around and found one on the Against the Crowd website. It was written in August 2016 so I updated it with the last 4 winners of the race.
The stats are:
1.Average combined winning distance of Sire and Damsire 19.4+ 30/32 winners
2.Total of Solid + Professional points in the dosage profile = 5+. 28/32 winner
3.Total of Dosage Points = 16+ 31/36 winners.
4.Ran to 110+ on 1 or both of last 2 starts. 18/19 winners.
5.Ran at least twice over 12f or at least once over more than 12f. 18/20 winners.So the stats were very strong but I assumed that would mean most entries would pass them.
I only looked at the top 10 in the betting so far.
Santiago 5/5 trends
Pyledriver 2/5 trends
Hukum 5/5 trends
English King 5/5 trends
Tiger Moth 3/5 trends
Serpentine 4/5 trends
Military March 3/5 trends
Al Aasy 3/5 trends
Dawn Patrol 4/5 trends
Delphi 3/5 trendsI only use trends as a starting point or as part of the picture. But the one I liked before this was HUKUM who ran a lovely race last time and looked to have a really good attitude.
He hits 5/5 of the trends so I will be backing him I think. He’s a cracking each way bet I think at the price now. Just not sure if he will line up.
Haven’t bet yet but I think HUKUM is my pick.
Why did Santiago drift out a bit to 3s recently? Just because of Pyledriver?
To me, Santiago looks a cracking price.
Kris Kin, I was having a look at trends yesterday, I’d include this one…
17/20 : Previous Winners had recorded a minimum RPR of at least 113 in either the Great Voltigeur, Gordon Stakes, Irish or Epsom Derby or the Bahrain Trophy.
! 1 exception in 2016 when 4/6F Idaho unseated his rider.
! 2 other exceptions had won at least 3 times that seasonI don’t think it’s a huge negative for Hukum to have run the Geoffrey Freer but it is still a negative. Not the usual route for Leger winners
Santiago certainly seems solid. There isn’t much between him and Pyledriver if you decided to using Berkshire Rocco as a line.
I can’t decide what to make of the middle distance 3yo colts this year, strange year for obvious reasons.
Hukum could be anything.
I backed Mohican Heights for the Derby after a very eye-catching 3rd behind Pyledriver when Simcock couldn’t buy a winner. He was awful in the Derby, even given a strange enough race.
He’s surely better than that effort though, he beat Subjectivist well, who is 12s here. He has 4ls to make up on Pyledriver who had a prep for Ascot.Won’t pretend to be confident on this, but he’s worth a small bet for me anyway.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!With an O’Brien pacemaker (Mythical perhaps?) and Subjectivist in there I can see this being a really good test of stamina which I think is in the interests of Ballydoyle to try and find the chink in the armour of Pyledriver.
I’ve no idea if Pyledriver will stay, if he does he’s obviously a big danger to all but the problem is he’s no longer the ignored outsider of the party and for the first time this season you are taking a much smaller price on him in the race where he probably has the most questions to answer.
I like Hukum a lot but a little concerned that the last couple of 3 year-old winners of the Geoffrey Freer (Defoe and Technician) whilst both going on to win Group 1’s fell well short for whatever reason in their respective St Leger’s.
I can see the thinking Jack around Mohican Heights, he’s certainly bred to be a Leger sort being a half-sibling to Eye Of The Storm and Curbyourenthusiasm amongst others who both won over the trip and further in the case of the former. I backed him myself at Epsom and although I’d forgive anyone a run in the Derby I’d have liked to have seen him come out and do something in one of the trials, there can’t be many who’ve gone straight from Epsom to Doncaster
would suggest to me something went wrong after or during Epsom perhaps.Although I don’ think he’s good enough to win this and indeed he has plenty to find with Santiago, English King and Pyledriver on his form this year, I think the prospect of a good test of stamina will be right up Berkshire Rocco’s street (whereas it might not be for English King or Pyledriver so reasons to possibly turn round the form). His prep at York was respectable I thought considering they didn’t make that much use of Subjectivist that day and it was only over 12F. We’ve had a few big priced outsiders hit the frame (Nayef Road was 40/1 last year) and I thought it was half interesting Andrea Atzeni is pencilled in for the ride, there aren’t many better around Doncaster. I guess he may still switch to Mohican Heights who he’s been on for both starts this season but then Spencer is available now for Simcock whereas he wasn’t back then, so he might not. 33’s available in a few places, I thought his chance would be similar to the likes of Subjectivist who is half his price, they are very similar horses in ability and both should stay fine without being good enough unless all three of the front three in the market flopped.
Would love to see Pyledriver win this, but I can’t get out my head the fact Muir was talking up the “dream win” in the Irish Guineas for him this time last year.
Think he’s the one to beat, but as The Tin Man states there is a risk of missing the wedding and attending the funeral.
BUY THE SUN
I honestly think Ballydoyle won’t be thinking in any way about Pyledriver. They will just run it to suit whatever they want to do with Santiago. That actually could be a strong pace, but it won’t be because they are trying to beat Pyledriver.
I agree with your comments around Pyledriver as a horse though. I’m still not that convinced, which is unfair as a King Edward and Great Voltigeur winner, but his breeding is just freaky. He should not be winning 12F races as comfortably as he is, so I do think he is very short to do it over another 2.5F.
I was also put off Hukum because of that Geoffrey Freer form, but on reflection is it not something to do with the fact he got injured at Ascot? So, actually, the timing of this race in the calendar and the fact it was a slightly lower standard to come back to from injury are quite possibly the reasons he went this route. If that is the case, that trend can be ignored. I backed him at 9s antepost, so I have a safety net if Santiago doesn’t perform.
I am a sucker for continuously backing horses that have won me money in the past. It wouldnt matter if they went from the Nunthorpe to the Gold Cup, I just cant help myself!
Therefore I have backed Santiago ante post at 3s, following wins at Ascot and Curragh.
Whether hes good enough remains to be seen but I am sure to follow him off a cliff in my usual manner.
Oh, and whilst slightly off topic, I will be doing exactly the same with Limato (the hardest one there was watching him live in Dubai when they made it rain for a continous week before the World Cup meeting! Mr Candy was not best pleased).
Happy punting peeps
Just watching back the queens vase Santiago seemed to have a very rounded knee action
Which would suggest he would enjoy cut in the ground
At the moment the ground wouldn’t be a problem but if this sun keeps shining it could be on the firm side of good come Saturday
FF going by the times of the races suggested the ground was completely good as the afternoon went on with the sun shining all day and I wouldn’t be surprised if its on the firm side of good by Saturday. Dry weather to the other side of the weekend with a fair bit of sun.
Galileo Chrome for me now that he’s declared, and I’ll have an ew bet on Tyson Fury, who’s going to be a fine price.
Santiago 12-1 ew AP.
English King 9-1 ew added, didn’t think he was coming here. Probably coz of favourable ground. I’ve backed him all season so if he pops up in this and I’m not on him I will kick myself a bit. Trainer adamant we not seen the best of him the last twice.They is my 2.
would suggest to me something went wrong after or during Epsom perhaps.
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