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I had been getting my dosage scores from a website which listed them all in one ‘handy’ list but it seems there were errors on it (eg Sea of Stars DI 3.0) . Have now updated my sheet from pedigree query website and Dominant Classicity is not such a strong trend (now only 10/15). And yes Kameko’s DI is now a stand out as too high.
All my trends I only went back 15 years.
Trend 1. Classy 2 year old form. If ran 2 or more times as a 2 year old has achieved an RPR of 100+
Trend Strength 14/15.
FAIL – Ran twice RPR 87Trend 2. Black type Dam if raced. Dam unraced or achieved RPR 100+.
Trend Strength 13/15 100+ (15/15 96+)
FAIL – Dam achieved a lowly 79Trend 3. Dominant Classicity Or at least Equal Classic points to other points (Dosage Profile)
Trend Strength 10/15 EDIT – originally posted this as 13/15 which was wrong!
FAIL – EK has 14 Classic Points and 18 total other points.Of course trends are often there to be broken and I probably missed a fair few winners in the past by sticking to them too strictly. But they are usually fairly good way to narrow the field in high class races I think.
I posted before with no replies but does anyone have any other interesting trends?
Yes probably too soon as you you both say.
This Derby is a real headscratcher as their is nothing in the race with a perfect profile.
I think Kameko has the least question marks (although stamina is a worry) and is a very backable price now at 5/1 and will probably be my bet on the day. The others need to improve nearly a stone and he just has to stay.
I have already backed Military March and Mogul Antepost but at similar prices to what they are now and don’t strongly fancy either particularly anymore.
Highest Ground makes some appeal to me now at 16/1 if he was to run.
Its almost by virtue of all the others not looking up to the job/passing my trends.
Not sure what RPR his win at Haydock will get but I think probably 109 at least (at a guess) That’s within a few pounds of his competition (bar Kameko) and he is by far the least unexposed.
The trends I use require a RPR of 118+ to win the Derby but only if more than 2 runs. With only 2 runs under his belt he could emulate workforce or ruler of the world by winning the Derby after just 2 runs. Workforce had a best RPR of 114 and Ruler of the World just 112 going into the Derby. Since 2005 every derby winner bar Wings of Eagles who had run more than twice had achieved a best RPR of 118 + going into the big race. It must be said that AVD last year had only achieved his 119 as a 2 year old and just 108 at 3.
If the previously fancied Waldkonig has in the last race improved to anywhere near what people were expected from him at the start of the season then that is potentially the best form on offer (bar Kameko).
Its interesting that Highest Ground has been fairly short in the betting with only one run in a Maiden. It shows hes really well thought of. This is in stark comparison to the likes of English King.
I am kind of clutching at straws here but if he does run that 16/1 looks a much better bet to me than the ridiculous price on English King who fails plenty of trends for me and is way too skinny a price on form.
Trained by a Maestro too which cant hurt.
Question is, will Highest Ground run?
What are people making of Russian Emperor?
I was reasonably impressed and if he gets a decent RPR (117 or more) from his Royal Ascot win he hits all my trends. He beat the 110 rated Juan Elcarno 4+ lengths so maybe possible? Incidentally about the same distance Kameko beat the same horse in the Guineas.
In a very open looking year I am quite tempted, his pedigree is very classy as his Dam was a superstar in Australia. Already backed Mogul and Military March Antepost however, so probably waiting for the day to have another bet.
RE is just 10/1 now but not heard much reaction from pundits/forum members on his chances.
Agree that if the rains come that Addeybb’s champion stakes form put him in with a massive chance, shame its not 8 runners or he would be a hell of an each way bet at 9/1.
One horse that I was a massive fan of as a 3 year old is Barney Roy. I am not sure why I had dismissed him for this race so easily.
Just watched his Jebel Hatta win LTO and it was impressive. He totally missed the break and came from near last to first in the straight. To be fair he was probably running against group 3 horses in this group 1 but he absolutely destroyed them from a far from ideal position. Barney Roy is 4/5 since returning to racing and perhaps he does retain his talent.
Japan was very slow to get fit last year and I think O’Brien said he’ll come on for the run. I do like Japan but I’ve seen better even money shots.
Starting to think that perhaps 5/1 is not a bad bet at all.
Is Magical an unlikely runner?
Shes a huge price if lining up. My favourite mare from last season. Only out of the top 2 once out of 9 starts last season (The Arc).
Was only beaten by Enable and Crystal Ocean.
10f her best trip and goes on any surface. Double figure prices seem too good to be true.
The Derby is one of those races I like to look at the stats/trends for. I don’t follow them blindly but I find it a useful starting to point to see what the average winner should look like.
I have compiled these from various sources.
My trends so far based on last 15 years are:
Ran as 2 year old 14/15
If ran 2 or more times as 2 year old should post an RPR of at least 100. 14/15 (breakdown: 10/15 ran 2 or more times and 100+. 3/15 ran once. 1/15 didn”t run. 1/15 failed the test)
If debut run was before last week in July should run top 4 in Group race. 7/7 from those that qualified.
Sadler’s Wells in Pedigree 12/15
Dam’s best RPR over 100 13/15 (2 failures RPR 96 and 99)
RPR of 118+ as a 3 year old. 11/15 (2 failures only had 2 runs ever in life, 1 failure had RPR 119 as 2 year old, 1 failure RPR 106 Wings of Eagles) Trend can maybe better be modified to, if 2 or more lifetime runs RPR 118 or above 14/15.
Average winning distance of Sire + Damsire 9.5+ 12/15 ( failures 9.45, 8.95, 8.85)
Does anyone have any other interesting trends to add to my list?
I’m not even sure if he is a headcase anymore and last season Charlie Hills seemed to have sorted him out compared to 2018. He’s different league to anything else likely to line up.
This race is his target and 2/1 will seem huge on the day I think considering he went off 2/1 last year and Blue Point was in the line up!
2/1 is a very nice price. Can’t believe you got 4’s Frenchy15 wish I had seen that!!! What a great bet.
Hes miles ahead of the others’. Hes more like an even money shot to me and could go odds on on the day I think.
Having a bet right now. Has been one of my favourite horses in training ever since he blitzed the field in the Goodwood King George Stakes in 2017.
What do people make of Military March’s Guineas run as stepping stone to the Derby?
I backed him for the Derby before the guineas hoping he’d be a staying on 3rd or fourth.
Not sure that run gives me much confidence however as wasnt making up ground at the end.
I’m not great at interpreting such things though and interested to know what others think.English King looks interesting but fails some major trends/stats.
His Dam’s best rating was only an RPR of 79. All the Dams of Derby winner in the last 15 years had achieved at least an RPR of 96 (excluding unraced of course). With 13/15 had an RPR over 100. In other words Derby winners need very classy pedigrees on both sides.
2nd trend is 14/15 Derby winners who ran 2 times or more as a 2 year old achieved an RPR of 100 or more. The exception was Pour Moi.
He seems to lack the class of an average Derby Winner, at least on the stats.
Really enjoyed that he’s a monster.
I think he’ll be underrated in his next start too, with people saying he got away from them, given an easy lead etc.
Hope he’s put away now for the king george as I believe he needs a long break between runs.
Nothing in his form screams guineas winne
Totally agree with this. He’s got a twenty percent strike rate (joint worst in the race). Has a horse with form figures like this ever won the guineas?
