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I really like Ghaiyyath he’s really caught my imagination for some reason.
I hope he wins well, it will add alot of interest to the season.I used to love reading Nick Mordins website and he used to often write about horses who ran monster performances after a layoff. They would then underperform if they ran again too soon. Ghaiyyath seems to fit this profile very well.
It’s an interesting race for sure.
Al Suhail 8/1 for the Newmarket Stakes 1m 2f on Saturday. Very unlikely runner? This price is enormous!
To reply to Mike007
Thanks for the stats, I had a look at this also. One thing I did notice is that most of the Champion two year olds who failed in the Guineas were either not favorite or USA bred/Sire was USA sire.
The only Champion 2 year olds who started as favourite and were Bred outside USA ( or did not have a USA Sire/Dam) are:
1. Toubougg (has USA dam though)
2. New Approach (beaten a nose)
3. St Nicholas Abbey (bred for middle distances)So if a Champion 2 year old is from a non USA sire and starts favourite its 3/6 or 1/2 on these updated stats. I honestly think Pinatubo is a decent bet at around evens.
Not saying this is particularly scientific but just some food for thought.
1992 Zafonic. 1st.
1994 Celtic Swing. 2nd. USA
1995 Alhaarth. 4th USA
1996 Revoque. 2nd. USA
1997 Xaar. 4th Sire and Dam USA
2000 Tobougg 8th Dam USA
2002 Hold That Tiger. 17th. USA
2003 One Cool Cat. 13th. USA
2005 George Washington. 1st.
2007 New Approach. 2nd by a nose.
2008 Mastercraftsman. 5th. Not Favourite
2009 St Nicholas Abbey. 6th.
2010 Frankel. 1st.
2012 Dawn Approach. 1st.
2013 Kingston Hill. 8th. Not Favourite
2014 Gleneagles. 1st.
2015 Air Force Blue. 12th. USA
2016 Churchill. 1st.Does anyone know when the entries and card for 2000 Guineas will be updated on the Racing Post website?
In fact not just the Guineas but all the rescheduled big races?
Derby still showing as June 6th and Guineas not even on there.
I heard many people saying ‘will Pinatubo train on?’ and remember ‘Air Force Blue’ and using it as one of the main reasons to say he was poor value for the Guineas.
So I just went through the form of all Champion European 2 year olds for the past 20 years. As far as I could see, only Air Force Blue, Johannesburg and One Cool Cat were disappointing as 3 year olds.
The thing I noticed was all 3 of these are USA bred and maybe that can partly explain it with the US preference for early speedy types.
Sharmardal (sire of Pinatubo) was US bred but he himself was a Champion at 2 and went on to greater things at 3. Lava Flow (out of Dalakhani) the Dam of Pinatubo was not such a star but improved 20 pounds from 2 to 3 also.
Even if we discount where the Champion 2 Year Olds were bred. There is only 3/20 or 15% of Champion 2 Year Olds who didn’t go on to achieve as 3 year olds.
To me it seems the ‘will it train on’ angle is a bit overused. It reminds me of when people say ‘I wouldn’t take less than 5/1 on a Grand National Horse, I’d want 5/1 for a horse to get round. ‘ When if you have a look the actual odds of getting around are probably around even or 6/4 on an average year.
