May 22, 2020 at 06:28 #1488782
I’ve taken a chance with Wichita 20-1 for this each way. Hopefully he will travel. Aiden O Brien so called second strings are dangerous in this race. Rock Of Gibraltar and Magna Grecia spring to mind. Like others in the race I don’t think the soft ground would have suited in the Dewhurst but hoping he can give the favourite more of a race if he lines up having had less experience.May 22, 2020 at 06:43 #1488783nwaltonParticipant
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Cheers Jack(always nice to have a differing view to help)I was just basing it on the run behind Mogul, although he was hemmed in a bit, he never seemed to be doing anything very quickly.May 22, 2020 at 10:48 #1488785jackh1092Participant
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NW, i didn’t fully answer your question when i look back, to be seen at his best, he probably will go up in trip in time, given he won his maiden over a mile at 2. I do think he’ll be fine at 1mile for now though. He seems similar to quite a few Aga Khan horses to me in that he doesn’t do it flashy.
My main thing about him is i don’t think he’ll end up a grade 1 horse. Could be harsh, as that was a good run on only his 3rd start of his life and he did finish well enough. Mogul is a massive talking horse and to be fair to him, hes a middle distance horse in the making, but as 2yo form goes, i don’t think it stacks up great. Purely an opinion!
I would be thinking Siskin is worth taking on massively in the Irish 2000G. It doesn’t look like it’ll turn out to be much of a renewal though. I’d like to find a way in to it betting-wise, but with the Ballydoyle plans still not crystal clear i’ll wait.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 24, 2020 at 20:45 #1488865colosus68Participant
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ok Tank busterMay 25, 2020 at 02:58 #1488869kris_kinParticipant
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Does anyone know when the entries and card for 2000 Guineas will be updated on the Racing Post website?
In fact not just the Guineas but all the rescheduled big races?
Derby still showing as June 6th and Guineas not even on there.May 25, 2020 at 08:13 #1488870TriptychParticipant
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I think we’re going to have to wait for the 72 hour decs kris kin to have an idea who will be running.
With the Irish equivalent so close and doubts as to which horses will travel over nothing is set in stone as to who will be taking part.
Apart from Pinatubo bookies are just speculating with AP prices and would be wise to wait for some definite news on any horse running here..Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...May 25, 2020 at 11:06 #1488873
Aiden O Brien piece in yesterday’s Irish Times. Gives me a bit more hope about Wichita lining up….
Arizona and Wichita are on course to tackle Godolphin’s hot favourite Pinatubo in the English 2,000 Guineas. The Group One winning filly Love may target the 1,000 Guineas.
“Arizona and Wichita are the main ones we’re thinking of for the English Guineas. A couple of others could go but I’m not sure what.
“By going to England we give them a chance to come back to Ascot for the St James’s Palace.
“Hopefully we will have runners in the Irish Guineas as well but it’s just getting a bit close to Ascot for them to come back,” he said.May 25, 2020 at 13:57 #1488883BigGParticipant
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Thanks for that Mike. I had picked out Wichita a while back as a decent
e/w shot when he was 25/1 with Bet365. I took the huff a bit when I missed that and they
cut him to 16s. I thought he was impressive in his win at Newmarket in September before
being beaten next time out by Pinatubo. I’m not sure he was just as at home on the soft
ground, but I’m not making excuses for him being beaten, he was beaten by a better horse
in Pinatubo who I’m as sure as you can be that he will win this, and probably by several
lengths. I just think that Wichita is a terrific e/w shot and with O’Brien seeming to have
given him the green light, I’ve taken the 20/1 E/W with Skybet.May 26, 2020 at 11:10 #1488931
1992 Zafonic. 1st.
1994 Celtic Swing. 2nd.
1995 Alhaarth. 4th
1996 Revoque. 2nd.
1997 Xaar. 4th
2000 Tobougg 8th
2002 Hold That Tiger. 17th.
2003 One Cool Cat. 13th.
2005 George Washington. 1st.
2007 New Approach. 2nd.
2008 Mastercraftsman. 5th.
2009 St Nicholas Abbey. 6th.
2010 Frankel. 1st.
2012 New Approach. 1st.
2013 Kingston Hill. 8th.
2014 Gleneagles. 1st.
2015 Air Force Blue. 12th.
2016 Churchill. 1st.
For all you stat lovers out there here is a list of Champion 2 year olds who ran in the 2000 guineas the following year. Of the 18 that tried, 6 had won. So two thirds of the horses that tried didn’t.
So not a given by any means that Pinatubo will win.
The recent renewal record has been more favourable, of the last 10 renewals of Champion 2 year old runners, 5 have won so a better percentage.May 26, 2020 at 12:14 #1488935jackh1092Participant
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Interesting Mike, thanks for that!
Given i think Pinatubo is the likeliest winner by a good bit and clearly has the strongest form by a long way- i decided to try and look for a horse, that was still much more unexposed. Now i haven’t actually backed him, but i thought Al Madhar was interesting?
Hannon was glowing about him, he didn’t have any fancy entries when winning at Newmarket, he did mention he wasn’t planning on running him much or at all after that- which i suppose allows for the layoff- for all i would’ve thought they would run him at least once more at 2?
Hannon said in March he could go straight here- corona has obviously forced his hand, but he does seem interesting?
Since March 17,Hannon is 320 runs, 36 wins, and 88 placed with first time out 2yos. So while he gets winners in the sphere, he isn’t as well known for it like his father. So for this horse to win first time out at Newmarket probably indicates he has a fair amount of natural ability. Always difficult to know how fit they are in maidens, but Al Suhail has shown the form up quite well, first receiver finished 2nd NTO and Tsar won.
Hannon can ready them for this as we know, and possibly he can do the same here to run into the money or cause a shock?
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 26, 2020 at 12:35 #1488936Frenchy15Participant
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I find whether Arizona or Wichita stay the strong Guineas mile quite fascinating actually. Last year I was a bit against Magna Grecia on a Sire Trend, but in hindsight that was silly because he’d won over a mile already but more importantly, he had Galileo in his bloodline.
Remarkably, Galileo has either been the Sire or DamSire of the last 6 Guineas winners, so it was clearly my mistake.
This year though, there is a very clear negative on the Breeding trends. Horses with a joint sire index of 17 or lower, that started the Guineas at odds of 14/1 or lower are 0/18 in the last 10 running’s.
No Nay Never is a fast horse, no doubt, won at only 5-6F, couldn’t win a Group 1 over 6.5F on his last start in the Breeders Cup Turf because it was too far and actually wasn’t a spectacular horse, best RPR run (117). He is similar in profile to Invincible Spirit (Magna Grecia’s Sire, but IS had more consistent and slightly better form, best RPR run (119,119,119,120).
On the Dam side Wichita’s won over 6.5F Listed (RPR 101, more speed in the breeding) and Dashing Blade, the DamSire was also not a really exciting horse that you would normally associate with Guineas winners. Won an Italian 12F Grp1, his best RPR was 121 and importantly he didn’t step up to 12F until later in his 3 year old career. He is certainly no Galileo.
For Arizona, Lady Ederle raced 4 times over a mile in Maiden’s, finishing 3489 and “finished tired” in 3 of those 4 races. English Channel the DamSire, was slightly better, (best RPR 124), but also didn’t step up to 12F until later in his 3 year old career either.
Magna Grecia’s Dam Cabaret was a Grp3 7F winner, (RPR 106).
In summary Magna Grecia’s breeding profile looked more suited to a Guineas test than either of Arizona’s and Wichita’s distance wise and also, it’s a better quality breeding profile all round. MG wasn’t a particularly strong Guineas winner either.
So, I think as Aidan O’Brien Guineas horses go, they are pretty unconvincing for me, considering Arizona has run 7 times already, could’ve been backed at 14/1 for the Dewhurst and Ryan Moore deserted him for Wichita.
I’ve backed Arizona to come back to trip and win the Commonwealth Cup.
As for Wichita, I thought originally, he might stay in Ireland for the Guineas there, not such a strong test, but as said already it appears, they will both run at Newmarket. I think 20/1 is a fair EW price actually and I could see him squeaking a place, but I just can’t see him winning and I like my EW shots to have a good chance of winning.
So that’s why I went for Kameko. My biggest worry is the track and what Oisin Murphy said about that, but I’ll have to take my chances on that.
When drawing comparisons to Roaring Lion, both by Kitten’s Joy, it also becomes quite fascinating. The Dam of RL was Vionnet, whose best run was over 10F (RPR 107) out of Street Sense, whose best run was also over 10F (RPR 127).
In comparison, Kameko’s Dam is Sweeter Still, whose best run was finishing 2nd in a Grp2 8F (RPR 104), out of Rock of Gibraltar, of course the 5 times Grp1 winning miler (Best RPR 131).
If anything, Kameko’s breeding profile is slightly more suited to a mile than Roaring Lions was. RL was beaten only 2.5L into 5th in the Guineas, with comments “just couldn’t quicken enough to get on terms”.
In his column about striding data, Simon Rowlands said “In terms of the future, I suspect that Kameko may prove to be a miler, though one who gets the trip well on a stiff track with a strong pace. His striding here (2.48 strides/second maximum, 2.27 minimum) previously suggests as much”
In terms of form, both ran 4 times as a 2 year old, RL best RPR 118 and Kameko best RPR 117.
(We can argue the form of the Trophy Stakes all day being on All Weather last year).
It is a very similar profile with Kameko being better suited to the Guineas than RL was.
Kameko’s breeding is more exciting on paper than either of AOB’s leading hopes and when looking at what else is near the top of the betting in the race, Kinross is interesting but this is a big ask, Threat I suspect will drop back in trip afterwards, Military March and Al Suhail, likely much better over further, Alson a massive afterthought for me, Kameko is for me the biggest danger to Pinatubo and that’s why I went for him.
Kameko 14/1 EWMay 26, 2020 at 12:38 #1488937Frenchy15Participant
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In terms of lightly raced colts, all of the last 20 winners had already recorded a previous race RPR of 110. Guineas winners are usually very forward in their careers, so the likes of Al Madhar and co have too big an ask for me this year.May 26, 2020 at 12:40 #1488938Captain RobboParticipant
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Is it 100% that the Irish will be allowed to come over for the Guineas?
That needs permission from not only the UK government but also from the Irish government. It’s a brave man who is backing anything antepost for this race in my opinion especially those backing the Irish runners.May 26, 2020 at 12:51 #1488939
Yes Captain they are allowed to come over. For the Group 1’s in those initial weeks. BHA comment below…
“Should racing resume on this date (June 1), it is agreed that protecting ourselves against unnecessary risk in the opening few weeks is a responsible and proportionate approach.
“As a result, foreign-trained runners will only be permitted to run in the three Group One races (1000G, 2000G, Coronation Cup) taking place in Britain during the first fortnight, in order to help facilitate a safe and smooth resumption.May 26, 2020 at 13:01 #1488941Captain RobboParticipant
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That’s good news then Mike as the race wouldn’t be the same without the Irish.
I will still wait to the day to place a bet as the draw can be very important.
If forced to place a bet today I would probably take the 40/1 on Positive. Looks over priced.
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