Home › Forums › Archive Topics › 2020 Grand National
- This topic has 186 replies, 43 voices, and was last updated 6 years, 1 month ago by
KevMc.
- AuthorPosts
- January 30, 2020 at 16:14 #1481308
Quelle,
Nothing to do with the software. The quote function was removed as people were quoting, well, for the sake of quoting, and threads were becoming a mess because of it.
I don’t think you’re post would have needed a quote attached to it, as everyone would have known what post you were replying to.
Hope that doesn’t sound too cheeky, it’s just to explain why the function isn’t there anymore.
January 30, 2020 at 22:02 #1481354After putting up Fitzhenry and Yala Enki, I’m actually going to go with One For Arthur. I’ve taken 33-1, but most of it is with the nrnb 25-1.
I think that is a big price, and I think he can win The National Trial at Haydock en route where his odds would definitely be slashed.
January 30, 2020 at 22:50 #1481361Missed Approach entered. Am I in deja vu land again. I think I’ve been backing him for the National forever but he never runs in it….
January 30, 2020 at 23:04 #1481365Big fancy of mine last year Moe, before his setback.
Jury was out after his run in The Becher, but he’s an interesting entry. Greatrex was hoping to run him January, and also in Veterans Chases, but no sign of him so far.
January 31, 2020 at 08:52 #1481392There is one race condition that all the commentators/pundits appear to have overlooked.
“Every horse must have started in a steeplechase during the current season.” I believe, the relevant date is 17th March.”
At the moment that rules out Tiger Roll from running.January 31, 2020 at 09:14 #1481393Travelling the turf, if Tiger Roll goes to Aintree then it would be the same route as last year taking the same race at Cheltenham. My personal beliefs are that if you want to do the triple then top weight with no compression. Rummy did it with 12 stone in 74 and 11-12 in 77. Didn’t like the going in 75 and ridden wrong in 76 by new jockey Tommy Stack, who knew the horse some years before the race.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.February 1, 2020 at 11:46 #1481553Red Rum, Yes I remember him well. I have a signed print of Rummy in the loft.
In those days,I felt winning form over the Aintree fences was crucial.
There are 4 entered this year so far as I can see :
One for Arthur &Tiger Roll are both previous winners plus Walk in the Mill who has won 2 Becher Chases and Hogan’s Height who won the Grand Sefton in 2019 by 16 lengths.
(Failing that good placed form at least.)
With all the fence changes, what relevance does course form have now ?February 2, 2020 at 18:36 #1481771Has Delta Work just become the new top weight for the National? I imagine there’s no real intention of running him, but he’s almost certain to go above 172. How does this effect the compression of Tiger Roll’s weight? Does it effect his weight at at all? It’s intriguing stuff for a saddo like me!
February 3, 2020 at 00:12 #1481816Anyone else fancy Kildisart at a price?
February 3, 2020 at 00:53 #1481817Be interesting to see what mark anibale fly is given
His runs have been suspiciously bad so far this season, as though they are trying to get his mark as low as possible for this by running him half fit or something
Be interesting to see his first run after the weights are released
He could potentially go from giving 5lb to tiger roll last year to receiving a stone off him this year
February 3, 2020 at 15:47 #1481870I think at the odds that Activial at 100/1 is worth considering. Although most
of his form is at around 2m 4/5f, he gives me the impression that further will
suit him. He did well enough over 3m 1f in the Ultima at the festival last year,
keeping on in 6th over just 7L behind some seasoned stayers. He’s 10 now, which
is a good age for the National and has never hit the deck. Over 7 seasons jumping
he’s twice made mistakes and unshipped his rider, but still stayed on his feet.
Some super glue on the sadle should do the trick. Tom George does quite well aiming
one at the National, Singlefarmpayment (50/1) did well enough in 8th last year and
Saint Are in 3rd in 2017. Five places with Paddy power seems a reasonable bet to me.February 3, 2020 at 17:31 #1481875Anibale Fly looks like he’s past it so well handicapped would be irrelevant if he is.
February 3, 2020 at 18:03 #1481881With regards to one for Arthur , definitely red finished in front of him giving him 8lbs , can’t see a reason why the form would be reversed , I think def is the value just now , I reckon the national has been his plan all year
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
February 3, 2020 at 22:18 #1481902Mark, the way Kildisart won here last April, I thought he’d be a dark horse for The Gold Cup, but things ain’t went to plan. Chance on that Spring form though, and he’s at least coming down the weights though.
February 3, 2020 at 22:41 #1481904Been looking over the entries for best part of a week, and still managed to avoid having a bet, though have added to the shortlist.
Sub Lieutenant – Loved the way he was finishing in The Topham, and assuming all is well with him, he’s certainly interesting. Think he’ll have no stamina concerns, and I wonder if his season is geared around this?
Give Me A Copper – Already mentioned him earlier on the thread, and coming back round to him.
Poker Party – Kerry National Winner, who ran a screamer in The Paddy Power. This looks the obvious target for him, and hard to pick too many holes in him.
Snugsborough Benny – Completely under the radar, but I love the way he’s been campaigned, and his Fairyhouse run offers encouragement.
Others
I’m not completely losing the plot here, but I still wonder what they’re up to with Yorkhill, if they’re trying to get his mark way down, then they’re doing a fabulous job, while stablemate Burrows Saint, despite being prominent in the market, almost has the feel of a forgotten horse here.Valtor was awesome at Ascot just over a year ago but got hammered for it. He’s already 10lbs lower than he carried in this last year.
Finishing second to Tiger Roll, before landing The Kim Muir, beating two proper target horses in the process, is the best light to view Missed Approach in. If Greatrex can get him back, then he’s a player.
It’s a big shortlist now, but it can be as long as I like now, but at least it’s in some sort of order of preference now…..
Tiger Roll
Any Second Now
Champagne Classic
Snugsborough Benny
Sub Lieutenant
Poker Party
Give Me A Copper
Anibale FlyFebruary 4, 2020 at 13:03 #1481938Horse Racing Ireland has given Tiger Roll a rating of 171, quite a rise from the 159 he had in the GN last year. It would surely be a difficult task to achieve a hat trick of wins off that kind of rating.
https://www.hri-ras.ie/ihrb-handicap-ratings/full-nh-ratings/
February 4, 2020 at 15:14 #1481951Yes if he runs off 171 he’d probably need to run to an RPR of 184 or more to win which I just can’t see happening.
- AuthorPosts
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.