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Long Distance Cup 2020

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  • #1499626
    Venture to Cognac
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    • Total Posts 16282

    Enbihaar looks the obvious one here, and with Stradivarius potentially heading to Longchamp, then that 4’s could be huge on the day……

    https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2020-10-17/765801

    https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/long-distance-cup/winner

    ….with the only potential question mark being the ground. Think he’s a smashing horse, and he surely won’t be 4’s on the day. Stablemate Logician am equally fascinating entry though, and I’d just favour him at the 5’s. He’s my sensible selection.

    As per though, I’ll look for something bigger.

    Stratum will have other options, but I think the 16’s underestimates his chances, especially off the back of his York run, and the likely softer ground won’t be an issue.

    Others who I could make a case for at prices, are…..

    Sovereign 14’s
    Morando 33’s
    Cleonte 50’s

    ….but obviously a lot will change between then and now.

    The most interesting entry for me though is Goshen. Yes, he’s only off of 88, but he looked on a seriously upward curve last year, one which he continued over hurdles, and who knows how good he can be. I realise the holes that can be picked in his profile, but with anticipated softer going much to his liking, and no hurdles to get in the way, I’m seriously considering that 33’s, and I’ll almost certainly go in shortly.

    Logician 5’s
    Stratum 16’s
    Goshen 33’s EW

    #1499770
    The Tatling Cheekily
    Participant
    • Total Posts 490

    Goshen would be fascinating. I fully expected the Moores to make hay with that mark to be honest, so am surprised to see him entered in a pattern race.

    Edit – Enbihaar is a she VTC, sure this was a typo not trying to be a smarty pants!

    #1499776
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    That’s my line of thinking too. It’s only his current mark that’s held me back as well, as why wouldn’t you bag a few on the way here. Still, just looks too big a price to me, and I’m watching the market all the time, trying to hold off as long as possible.

    Yeah, that’s a typo, but I keep doing that, should pay more attention lol

    #1499781
    Mike987654
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    • Total Posts 330

    I can’t see Logician running, Gosden said he only got the Leger trip because of the fast ground and he is a 12f horse. I have backed Enbihaar for race in France the Prix De Royallieu 3rd Oct where she is Fav. They kept her in training to get a group 1 on her CV and most likely target is the Prix De Royallieu what are fillies and mares, I can’t see Gosden putting her against colts.

    #1499782
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3022

    They’ve always said Enbihaar likes better going too which would be a potential worry for this race. As Mike98 says get her the G1 and they might just forget Ascot altogether.

    What the heck do they do with Logician then Mike? They need to get a run into him + its hard to know where they go after that?

    I wouldn’t rule out Fujaira Prince here. The other i have my eye on is Passion.

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1499785
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 2715

    A couple of other angles for the race….

    Stradivarius gets put in his place in the Prix Foy and connections decide there is no point going for the Arc and come back here.

    Santiago wins the Leger and connections decide they have unfinished business after an unsatisfactory race at Goodwood and come here to put the record straight.

    #1499786
    Mike987654
    Participant
    • Total Posts 330

    I don’t know what they will do with Logician or where they will place him Jack. But if they do run him in the long distance cup I would be wary of backing him over 2 miles on testing ground. Fujaira Prince timeform rated his run in the Ebor 119 and said he was a group horse in a handicap. He might like that extra 2 furlongs, if he is a runner I will be on him.

    #1499787
    jackh1092
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    • Total Posts 3022

    So will i. I think i might be able to find out as well.

    At 8-1 though already, he’s hardly going to be much value is he!? Even with the weight last time, it was a good run, and he’s obviously going to progress you’d hope. But he was well put in his place wasn’t he?!

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1499788
    Mike007
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    • Total Posts 2715

    Fujaira Price done me a good turn in the Ebor. But going up in grade, not Listed, not Group 3, group 2, but group 1. Can he honestly be that good? Depends on the field I guess I think it would need to cut up for me to consider him.

    #1499790
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2715

    Depends what people perceive as value I suppose, I’ve backed 8-1 winners, 33-1 winners antepost, and 11-10 winners. Finding the winner is what its all about for me, I don’t have a problem going for a shortie if I am confident about him.

    Not at all. The race turned into a 4 furlong sprint not a staying race. Frankie was diplomatic the way he said it, but I will give the non diplomatic version…… Ryan messed up by not setting an even gallop to make the weight for age count.

    #1499791
    Mike987654
    Participant
    • Total Posts 330

    Mike if you take out Stradivarius most of the horses left are group 2 and 3 horses, timeforms rating puts Fujaira Prince as a group 2 performer if it is correct. They rated Enbihaars last run as 117.

    #1499792
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2715

    I don’t follow Timeform sorry, I don’t rate them. I follow Official ratings and my own judgement from them. We both agree though that if the ‘stars’ don’t turn up and it cuts up then he’s not out of it. I just want to know whos running and ground conditions before I can invest my cash in this race, too many ifs and buts at the minute.

    #1499793
    Mike987654
    Participant
    • Total Posts 330

    Mike the official rating for Fujaira Prince is 114 very close to anything else running in the race. He is also entered in the Irish St Leger what is a group 1`and the Long Distance Cup a group 2 race. I am also not risking any money on the race yet, going conditions could be anything come the day.

    #1499796
    Mike007
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2715

    114 aint bad, I will see what else turns up.

    #1500324
    Venture to Cognac
    Moderator
    • Total Posts 16282

    Hardly convinced that he’ll run, but I’ll take a few quid at 33’s, as if he does go, he won’t be 33’s, and makes sense to go EW, as I’d expect it to cut up.

    Goshen 33’s EW

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