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Depends on the ground for me
Gd or firmer siskin wins
Gd to soft mohaather wins
Soft it becomes a lotteryNo but I can’t see mohaather being able to give weight to siskin if he gets his ground personally
With it being goodwood and a potentially double figure field luck in running could play a big part
Though I’m a huge siskin fan so am being biased, he’s one of those horses I just happened to back on debut and have followed ever since
I’m a fan of Siskin but I still think he has a lot to prove. Winning an Irish Guineas and a Sussex Stakes is different proposition. It’s another step up. However I do think that Guineas form might be decent. Lope Y F franked the form yesterday and on entries Vatican City and Armory could run before August at their correct distances.
In comparison I don’t quite get Mohaathers 124 rating for beating a few group 2/3 horses at Ascot? He looked decent obviously but I think I’m inclined to believe the Guineas form is stronger at the moment.
All that said I think this is more open than we’d probably thought it would be a couple of weeks ago, I’m not sure Siskin or Mohaater are that solid, so I’ve taken a little punt on Earthlight turning up.
They didn’t rule it out yesterday and of course his price is related to his chances of turning up but 25/1 is worth a punt I think.
His sire Shamardal is a course winner and his progeny tend to do well there from memory(no concrete stats to back that up yet)
Unless anyone has heard/read anything that rules him out? I think I’ll put him up as my antipost punt
Earthlight 25/1
I’ve also had a little punt on Duke of Hazzard, I wonder if connections are tempted to have a crack at it and he’s 3/3 on the course.
Duke of Hazzard 50/1
Pricewise has tipped Earthlight in the RP this morning, price is tumbling. He must read this thread
The fact Fabre mentioned the Maurice de Gheest would concern me as i wouldn’t be shocked to see them keep him sprinting now for a while. Though given he mentioned stepping up in trip, if stepping up to a mile, the Sussex would suit.
I can’t see why they wouldn’t run Duke Of Hazzard. He ran very well at Ascot last time, and as you say Goodwood seems to be his track. Paul Cole before joining with his son hadn’t an Ascot winner in 5 years, but has much more success at Goodwood. 50s does seem big, for all he probably won’t be good enough for the win.
Presumably the front of the field will be somethign like this?
Siskin
Mohaather
Circus Maximum
Terebellum or EarthlightGiven the milers haven’t looked a great bunch, that could look very strong!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I’ve also went with Duke of Hazzard here, it just seems to big a price for a horse who does his best racing here.
He’d always be an EW horse in a race like this, but the 50’s more than takes care of that.
Duke of Hazzard 50’s EW
Duke of Hazzard has the option of defending his Thoroughbred Stakes race so it depends how confident connections get I guess?
Terebellum has been ruled out apparently, I don’t have the direct quote, but that was written in the RP this morning, so Godolphin don’t have a horse for this, as Al Suhail looks like going to the Prix D’Ispahan on Sunday potentially. Again in the RP it says CA not keen to go to the Sussex Stakes, but no direct quote.
They obviously could stay for the Prix MDG, but Fabre was targeting Newmarket all winter, so I think they believe this horse is pretty good and the Prix MDG is hardly a stand out Grp1, so I think there is a chance, but obviously that’s well factored into the price
That’s for 3yos only!
CA said Pinatubo deserved a break- and wouldn’t run at Goodwood- direct quote.
Presume Terebellum is a doubt as Gosden didn’t think she ran her race at Newmarket, might want to give her a break too.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Oh is it? That was written in the RP! Wow, they are making a lot of mistakes lately. They actually said, “he’s primed for a defence of his crown” haha
Just double checked in case it was changed due to covid but the BHA site has it down as 3yo only.
He should be 20s or so i suspect given his course form so it’s worth a small go. Doubtless on the exchange on the day he could be bigger than 20s.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I thought mohaather got 120 frenchy? Not 124? Still 120 is on the high side, had to be given it because of 2nd and 3rd, wouldnt think personally hes ran to above 117 there and i doubt he will be anywhere near good enough to win a proper group 1, another one of those until he does it in this company i couldnt back him at this price views, Hes short.
Siskin ought to be winning but i agree with you jack, DOH priced up at 14/1 with betfair and 50/1 betway is a no brainer given his form here
Earthlight is arguably my favourite prospect, but not at a mile and id avoid him until i see him run it, 25/1 or whatever he is, a fair price if you want to take the chance, he is bred for it, but has looked electric over the sprint trips and the form stacks up well
Again vatican city might be an on the day play if i can get 20/1
But the only horse i could back at this point would be duke of hazzard, price cant hold unless they know hes not going
I’m not so sure about Earthlight being a sprinter Ham, I’m sure he would’ve raced in the dewhurst last year had they not been trying to avoid Pinatubo, 6f on Sunday seemed the logical starting point after a setback and AF was talking all winter about aiming him for the Guineas. Do we have any striding data to go on?
124 Mohaather got in the RP! Haven’t seen Timeform, but I think that’s a little ridiculous myself. I don’t understand it at all. I can’t see the value in his Sussex price at all I really can’t. Many tipsters are keen though.
VC would interest me as well but I’m a little concerned they ruined him a bit by running him in the derby
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