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Do we have any striding data to go on?
https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/01-October-2019/will-earthlight-stay-a-mile
Suggests sprinting for Earthlight, and also suggested a mile was a worry for Pinatubo, but he looked better on the data than Earthlight. Pinatubo has arguably stayed to a degree over a mile, but probably not finished off his race as strongly as others.
Depending how much you trust the striding data you’d be worried for Earthlight.
124 for Mohaather does seem slightly on the high side. He was very impressive though, and Goodwood could really suit him.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I do respect that data actually, so that’s not a positive sign then although if he’s ever gunna get a mile it’ll be at Goodwood. I would not be that surprised if Mohaather won but his value’s long gone in my view. He was pricewises other tip this morning, I was shocked at that.
I wonder also if Threat will turn up, didn’t think he ran badly in the SJP considering everything that happened to him and I was very surprised to see him run in the July Cup. He looks overpriced at 40s as well potentially but maybe they’ll go to something like the Hungerford next?
I’d go Lennox with Threat if he were mine. 7f at Goodwood would be about ideal. Hannon seems to be happy with finishing midfield in group 1s with him but a Group 2 win wouldn’t do him any harm.
Earthlight would be stretching it at a mile but this would be the one to try it out.
Siskin looked special in the Irish Guineas, Id have him odds on for this.
He was 6/4 when they thought Pinatubo and the St James Palace stakes winner were thought to be running, sorry I think of his name off the top of my head..
Mohaather was very good too but Siskin for me at the pricesGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Mohaather is 120 when you click on his profile on the RP website. No idea where the 124 is coming from.
Not for me he isn’t, I click into his profile it says 124 for that Ascot win?
Of course Nath, good shout, was forgetting the Lennox. In fact, need to see what lines up against him, but potentially I’ll be all over him for that
I see the mix up now. You said 124 in the RP but was referring to RP rating. OR is 120.
Ah yes, RPR is 124. OR is 120. In any case, he will be the highest rated in the race it seems and that to me is a little ridiculous. He will make the market though for me, so that’s good!
Dissecting his form, he was a 33/1 shot for his third start as a 2year old when winning the Horris Hill, so connections didn’t think he was a Guineas horse then. He beat no-one as it turned out in that race. At 3, he won the Greenham, only because Too Darn Hot got injured, but even after that connections said, “we will discuss the Guineas”…….still not confident he was a Guineas horse even after winning the Greenham.
He beat nobody again in the Greenham as it turned out, regarding top level, only Hello Youmzain who we now know would have been running over too far.
I’m okay with drawing a line through any Champions Day race as it was a bog and it was his first race back anyway.
So this year, he was eyecatching in the Queen Anne, but would he have won? I don’t think so, but hard to say. In any case, the form is questionable. Circus Maximus is a very solid horse, but will always be vulnerable to anything with speed and Terebellum did nothing for the form last week.
Quite possibly he would’ve finished only third in that race with a clear run.
Then he beats a load of Group 2/3 horses. Did it well to be fair.
Although M Tregoning seems confident he will go on any ground, his form would suggest otherwise and that he’s best with give in the ground. Even on Saturday it was officially Good, but that is BS for me. Every race was slow and Chris Stickles always overwaters Ascot and then calls it decent ground when it clearly isn’t. That was on the slow side of Good I would say.
All that makes him ridiculously short in the market.
Siskin is obvious, but I’ve watched the Irish Guineas about a hundred times now! and did he look a little better than it was? Hard to say, really is, but all of the horses he went past were going backwards, except Lope & Fernandez who was likely running over too far. Vatican City and Armory had troubled paths as well. VC was even worse than Siskin’s.
What else could beat him? The only other one that’s not really been mentioned much is Wichita.
Mike I’m a little surprised you’re not still in for Wichita? Are there any comments/rumours about where he’s going next?
He was very well backed for the Guineas, nearly pulled it off then ran on ground probably not quick enough for him at Ascot and still recorded 120 as an RPR. He doesn’t need much more than that to win this race and he most likely we get faster ground and the track should suit him more than Newmarket. On pedigree anyway.
I can definitely see some improvement there.
I’d be quite keen to take Siskin on with him if there are any positive vibes coming. Did anyone hear anything? 10/1 looks like a lot of value no?
I think Wichita may step up in trip as he is also declared for a 10f race around the same time. This will be more like a 7.5f race so am wondering if he has the speed for it though if he was declared I may talk myself into adding him. Siskin and Mohaather look like milers with speed to me who ought to appreciate the track. I don’t buy into the ‘who did he beat’ argument about Mohaather necessarily. As I’ve said before horses with potential or horses making up for lost time can step up. Who did Serpentine beat before the Derby? You could list similar negatives for him and it would’ve made no difference as he won by 5 odd lengths.
As far as ground goes, I aint too worried, his sire and dam loved fast ground. He hasn’t raced on good to firm but that don’t mean he wont act on it. I would imagine they will water anyway to keep it safeish.
The OR120 makes sense, he was already OR113 and he beat horses rated 114,115,117 easily. The handicapper hasn’t got much choice really.
To me its between the big 2 with doubts on so many others even turning up and with Siskin 6-4 and Mohaather 4-1 when I looked I went for the latter ew. I do rate Siskin and if he did win I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.
Interesting Frenchy reading this i could disagree with a lot of it.
Just because connections aren’t certain he’s a guineas horse or a grade 1 horse, doesn’t necessarily mean he isn’t. Hardly worth using that as a stick to beat a horse imo. “connections” let Oxted go off 14/1 in a handicap and he’s now a G1 winner. Maybe they didn’t expect him to stay so well being by Showcasing?
He didn’t beat nothing in the Greenham? He beat a perfectly standard Greenham field. Great Scot now 112 + Urban Icon now 109. Nevermind Hello Youmzain.I don’t get how this is a bad run? Horse is a 3yo, missed basically his entire 3yo career, runs back on atrocious ground and finishes 5th? Whether you believe that’s a poor field or not, it’s a big run.
As you say, he’s won it with ease, San Donato albeit off a layoff, had some very decent form as a 3yo, and i suspect if he can build on this (not certain) he might well be grade 1 class. He had Lord Glitters back in 4th, who loves Ascot and has ran plenty of big races fresh.
I wouldn’t be a backer at 11/4 right now, but i don’t think he has much to prove after that myself. He’s a Grade 1 miler.
The race is likely to cut up, i think that’s part of the problem, which is why i am happy to have a small bit of Duke of Hazzard!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!It’s the Tattersalls Gold Cup Mike, but most of AOBs are declared there. You might be right though, AOB has talked about Wichita getting more than a mile all year really, but he showed speed at Ascot on non-ideal ground. He is 12/1 on the exchanges, so probably that tells a story of his chances of going then. Let’s see if he gets declared.
I checked the ground and only 4/15 have been run on GF actually. Another over watered track! Great!
I’m not using his form to say he’s rubbish. I’m just saying it’s not like he has amazing back form or anything. I doubt any Guineas winner in history went off at 33/1 on their third start Jack.
That’s Listed form. We’re talking about the Sussex. Hello Youmzain I mentioned was running over too far.
Anyway…I’ve been checking ATR for the sectionals and turftrax for the ground conditions. The St James Palace and
Summer Mile were actually run on ground described exactly the same, 7.3 in the straight and Good.The final 2 furlongs horse speed was this
Palace Pier 38.48
Mohaather 38.27
Pinatubo 38.15
Wichita 38.02The SJP was run at a slower pace, so Mohaather can be upgraded a bit there as well.
Trying to compare to Siskin, according to Simon Rowlands, he ran the Guineas last 3F in 34.97seconds in comparison to Mohaathers 35.69seconds.
Siskin was on GF, but he was also finding trouble from 3F to 2F.
I think FF probably hits the nail on the head, it will all come down to ground conditions.
Slow side of Good – Mohaather
Quick side of Good – SiskinIf the race cuts up as it looks too, then 50/1 EW on Duke of Hazzard looks very nice!
In any case, no he’s not Jack. He has it all to prove for sure.
He beat them readily on his first start of the season as a 3yo. The point is he’s beaten horses rated high with ease when you said it was useless, no it wasn’t. Considering the year that we are in as well, the older milers haven’t been great for sometime. It takes like 120 to win a G1 so 112 isn’t listed. Maybe you’re too used to working in RPRS.
He’s already finished 5th in one off a setback, so I think he is
Hed have finished much closer at ascot as well, whether you think he’d have won or not is irrelevant.
No Mike, we are selecting a horse with a liking for a track, that didn’t finish miles behind an 11/4 shot on a track he hasn’t run his best on.
Race is likely to cut up.
It’s about betting the price…..
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Jack, we clearly have different ways to look at race quality, that’s fine. Finishing 5th in a bog doesn’t rate as being a Group 1 Miler for me, but depends on our definition of what a Group 1 miler is.
Maries Diamond finished 3rd in the Queen Anne, I wouldn’t call him a Group 1 miler either, so it’s irrelevant to me if Mohaather had beaten him. Not to you, that’s upto you how you view things.
Saying Great Scot 112 and Urban Icon 109 are rated high, again, not for me, but if you think they are that’s fine.
You can pick holes all you want with it, but the fact is Great Scot and Urban Icon have between them won 1 Listed and 1 Group 3 race since that Greenham, so I’ll give you Group 3 quality if it makes you feel better.
You should read what I actually write sometimes as well, I never once said the Greenham was useless form, in fact I actually said “He beat nobody in the Greenham, as it turned out at the top level”
He didn’t. I can’t see what the argument is there? I never said it was useless form. You said that.
The whole point to what I was saying, was that Mohaather is not some Too Darn hot type star that got injured and now he’s back. He has it all to prove in a top quality Group 1 and he’ll get the chance to show it at Goodwood, but now his price is very short to do it, which I think you agreed with earlier, so not quite sure what point it is you’re trying to make actually?
DOH is a long shot for top 3, but he won’t win and I’ll never let a Grp1 go without backing a horse I think will win.
Looks like Kameko will likely run here now though not 100%.
“”Sheikh Fahad’s racing and bloodstock adviser David Redvers told Nick Luck’s Daily Podcast: “There’s been lively in-house debate and Sheikh Fahad is keen to go with Andrew’s preferred option, which at the moment looks like it will be the Sussex.””
I’d much rather back him at 5/1 than Siskin at 6/4.
Would backing kameko win only not be the better choice since he isn’t guarantee d to run?
Looks pretty much guaranteed to me reading this…
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/kameko-bound-for-sussex-clash/182096
I’d seen an Andrew Balding interview not far after the Derby and he said he would either go direct to the Juddmonte or have the option of running in the Sussex Stakes if he felt he needed a run beforehand.
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