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Welcome back Soldier-look forward to your thoughts on the big races coming up…
At Ayr tomorrow it’s a pretty dire card but one that stands out is Drumnagreagh in the last. The Irish raider stayed on nicely at Roscommon last Summer and the trainer often does well at the track.
A few trends over the last 15 renewals to get us in the mood:
15/15 – Aged 8 or younger
13/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Had won between 2-4 times over fences before
11/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners)
10/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham (fences) before (4 won)
10/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Officially rated 142 or higher
9/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/15 – French bred
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
5/15 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
5/15 – Ran in the BetVictor (Nov) Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
4/15 – Finished in the top 5 in the Bet Victor Gold Cup last time out
4/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Went to an Irish-trained horse
1/15 – Winning favourites (last winning fav 1996)
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 10/1Maybe he just needs to front run?
With Vicente out I might just back Blaklion as he has a solid chance, can still get 4/1. Vieux Lion Rouge is up in the weights but should be in the places, as would be Last Samuri…
Vicente isn’t running.
Still in the 5 day decs…As De Mee likely for the Sefton. Either way I won’t be betting til the day of the race, weather looks pretty wild in the north west this week!
Aubusson not declared which is not surprising, I’m tempted by Westerner Point off such a low weight and had been intriguingly campaigned over hurdles and 2m over fences. Hard to call him well handicapped on 134 but if it comes up heavy he’d have a squeak.
Otherwise Blaklion is worthy favourite but 3/1 is just madness in this kind of race. Vicente or As De Mee could be my choices come the day with Nicholls going well.
5/1 is very short for this kind of race, and he has to carry a share of weight too. I’m a fan but think there’s better value elsewhere. Something like Aubusson, who looks well handicapped, might go well of a low weight. He was on the process of running a good race at Cheltenham last time until his saddle slipped and looks a strong stayer despite never running at Aintree before. If his jumping holds up I can see him running well.
i think any of these can win, it’s wide open. However Bishop Road is well-handicapped on old form and runs well fresh. Kerry Lee is a canny trainer and hopefully has him spot on for this – the National will be his main target i suspect but should run well.
I backed Missed Approach a few weeks ago at 33/1, and can see Ben Linfoot has tipped him up this morning. I don’t think he’s necessarily good enough to win, but has stamina in abundance and should be staying on at the end when others have cried enough so quietly confident of a place. His form at Newbury is pretty good as was his 2nd in the 4 miler – he’s a bit hit and miss but has the services of Richard Johnson to steer him in first time blinkers.
I’ve also bet American as part of a Lucky 15 with Charli Parcs, Bishop Road and O’Maonlai – I think the horse is either the type to go and murder them all or tamely fold away, can’t see any inbetween so have gone for a win bet. I’m a bit concerned about Fry persistently calling the horse fragile, not the best comment in the world but he is immensely talented and could be a Gold Cup horse come March.
I’m also inclined to add some small eachway bets on Coneygree, Cogry and A Genie in a Bottle, as all have good profiles for the race in different ways. I agree that it may not be the best quality field, but a very interesting and competitive renewal of the race.
It’s been a long time since Theatrical Star was in the winners enclosure but he’s handicapped to win off 127 and I can see the old boy running well. He could emulate the same connections Hey Big Spender and win at a grand age. He and Yala Enki are my choices.
Aargh, I deserted Present Man on the account of the jockey and the drift this morning-curses. Bet you feel the same Venture!
Saunter and Towerlands Park for me, pair of decent 4 year olds off feasible marks for the race.
Great ride there by Saunter, TP disappointing…well done with CL Venture, good staying on second. Well done Raymo and other Saunter backers!
