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Definitely Graham, lets keep The National stakes to a minimum though lol
He may do if held up like today (when he certainly didn’t look one-paced) rather than being sent for home before the Anchor Bridge Crossing like Fehily did in April.
Looking at the number of finishers in the Becher and Sefton and the dominance of highly weighted horses in both races plus the turf on TV, I reckon it was Soft rather than Heavy. Plum awful day but no way was the going as testing as in Rule The World’s National.
You may well have a point about the going, GM; weren’t kicking it up like I thought they would. Then again, in places on the Mildmay course it looked waterlogged.
tbh I don’t think Fehily did send Blaklion “for home”, the horse just pulled him there. If he’s to stay the trip in the Grand National think he’ll need to be anchored out the back for longer – like he was early in today’s race. Although that in itself will make things harder in moving through a 40 runner field and a hostage to fortune (being brought down). tbh Blaklion will be given more weight for that performance and – at the prices – The Last Samuri appeals more @ 40/1. Added test of stamina is sure to suit him.
Value Is Everything“ can he stay the distance in the National “
Errrr….were you on Neptune last April, Jolif ?
Got my forecast home
and well done to everyone else who backed him.
Now just let Bristol De Mai romp home in the King George on Boxing Day and all my Christmas wishes will be fulfilled.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I know you think that about the 2017 National, GT, but I really do think Fehily made an uncharacteristic error. Surely he’s a strong and experienced enough jockey to have held on to Blaklion – how hard can the horse have been pulling after being close to a suicidal pace and after nearly 4 miles? Blaklion was going so well I think Noel was carried away and made a tactical faux pas.
These days there is less danger of being brought down or hampered (unless by a posse of runners pulling up lol) and look what One For Arthur did in April. The problem with The Last Samuri is will the occasion get to him pre-race like Kim Bailey has recently said it did in 2017?
They stay or they don’t in my book. No such thing as being ridden to get the trip in reality. Energy conservation and rhythm the name of the game but it doesn’t add stamina, just gives them a chance to run to their optimum.
I know you think that about the 2017 National, GT, but I really do think Fehily made an uncharacteristic error. Surely he’s a strong and experienced enough jockey to have held on to Blaklion – how hard can the horse have been pulling after being close to a suicidal pace and after nearly 4 miles? Blaklion was going so well I think Noel was carried away and made a tactical faux pas.
These days there is less danger of being brought down or hampered (unless by a posse of runners pulling up lol) and look what One For Arthur did in April. The problem with The Last Samuri is will the occasion get to him pre-race like Kim Bailey has recently said it did in 2017?
Yes, Fehily could have stopped Blaklion from going to the front, but in doing so would’ve wasted the horse’s valuable energy – would’ve probably led to a worse result.
They stay or they don’t in my book. No such thing as being ridden to get the trip in reality. Energy conservation and rhythm the name of the game but it doesn’t add stamina, just gives them a chance to run to their optimum.
Surely that’s the point Joe, stamina is all about “energy conservation and Rhythm”, which is why if a horse settles better it will last longer? If pulling or too free it will not last.
It depends on the horse. Although some settle better in front (or racing prominently) most don’t.
Many settle better in behind a bunch of horses purely because there is nowhere else for them to go. Where as with fewer horses in front means more gaps and therefore wanting to go faster.
Often, when a horse sees too much light early on it races more freely and therefore doesn’t stay as far.
Sometimes when a horse is held up out the back (with loads of horses in front) it’ll settle better and then is less buzzed up once seeing the gaps later on in a race.ie Any horse that relaxes more will stay further, which is why I believe if Blaklion is held up behind horses early on he’ll have a better chance of staying the trip.
Value Is EverythingI seem to remember some “good judges” on here having the same reservations about Hedgehunters stamina for the race after he fell at the last the previous year.
Similarly can’t see stamina being a factor for Blaklion and concur with GM’s view of Fehily’s ride.
What I haven’t seen discussed is some of the worst handicapping I’ve ever seen of the Charlie Hall chase. Phil Smith, hang your head in shame.
Mark, I’m not sure that fits with your position in our Betfair Chase debate where your contention was that nothing but the winner stayed and mine was that they ran out of energy trying to keep up.
Anyway, I’m not taking a position on Blaklion or any other horse here; I just don’t believe a horse can magically have an injection of stamina by being ridden to ‘get the trip’. All horses benefit in a race from an optimum ride – conditions allowing – that sees them use up their energy in an even fashion (you’ve said this often enough yourself).
In any staying race where everything is ridden optimally, the horse with the least stamina will not beat the horse with the most (unless there is a substantial difference in merit) no matter how well it is ridden to ‘get the trip’.
Blaklion ? I mentioned it before the race.
I appreciate you said it had been dropped a couple of pounds Mark but that hardly describes the appalling handicapping of the Charlie Hall.
Mark, I’m not sure that fits with your position in our Betfair Chase debate where your contention was that nothing but the winner stayed and mine was that they ran out of energy trying to keep up.
Anyway, I’m not taking a position on Blaklion or any other horse here; I just don’t believe a horse can magically have an injection of stamina by being ridden to ‘get the trip’. All horses benefit in a race from an optimum ride – conditions allowing – that sees them use up their energy in an even fashion (you’ve said this often enough yourself).
Horses don’t “magically have an injection of stamina by being ridden to ‘get the trip’”, they may (and only “may”) stay further if (and only “if”) they settle better than they did before… And being held up behind a block of horses can sometimes (and only “sometimes”) help to settle. ie Helping the horse use its energy “optimally”.
Baklion needs to be held up in order to settle and needs to settle in those Grand National “conditions” in order to get an “optimum ride”. ie If he does not settle he will not win, therefore his jockey’s first priority on Blaklion will be to settle the horse.
However – as I said earlier – being held up he’s then a hostage to fortune. A slowish run race favours prominent runners and Blaklion would then end up in a bad position (not “optimum” conditions). Also a slow pace can mean a doubtful stayer becomes uncomfortable with going so slow, pulling too hard (think Dawn Approach in the Derby). Problem is Blaklion doesn’t have much choice imo needs to be held up to settle/win.
What I said in this thread does not contradict in any way what I said in the Betfair thread, Joe. Not sure what you’re referring to there? Outlander is inconsistent and effective at 2 1/2 to 3m under less testing conditions, not certain to stay 3m1f on stamina sapping heavy. Tea For Two blatently did not stay. Two outsiders were both outclassed and unlikely to stay… And Cue Card is probably a combination of too old, out of form and didn’t stay the 3m1f in bottomless ground. That race didn’t have anything to do with “energy” used. Possibly Cue Card might have run more sweetly on the outer with a clear view, but that’s only a minor thing. They all settled fine – just didn’t get home.
Value Is EverythingIn any staying race where everything is ridden optimally, the horse with the least stamina will not beat the horse with the most (unless there is a substantial difference in merit) no matter how well it is ridden to ‘get the trip’.
No, the horse with the most stamina does not often win the Grand National whether ridden “optimally” or not. On heavy or even soft suspect Blaklion will not stay the Grand National trip whatever way he’s ridden, putting too much of an emphasis on stamina. But on good or good-soft and if settling he probably will stay the Grand National trip and have the necessary speed. Where as on that type of ground Welsh National or Eider types are too stamina laden whether they’re ridden “optimally” or not, not having the necessary speed.
tbh I don’t look for an out and out stayer to win the Grand National unless it’s very soft. In most years I prefer those proven to have speed for 3m2f that either stay further or look as though they’ll stay further.
I’ve just done a calculation that says the average speed of this year’s Beecher was slower than last year’s Grand National.
Value Is EverythingDunne is a weird one. There was that incident on Gas Line Boy the time before last and then today on Twenty Eight Guns -the horse is unusually held up, has just made a mistake down the far side but instead of giving his horse a clear sight of the next few, he rides it in behind horses and is brought down. Strange decision from a jockey in form.
and well done to everyone else who backed him.
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