Becher Chase 2017

Love this race, normally a decent betting heat, and always a decent spectacle.

Unlike The Grand National, where you really want one who hasn’t ran in it before, with The Becher, previous experience of the fences, is more often than not, of some benefit.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/32/aintree/2017-12-09/688086

It looks a bloody nightmare this year, with so many likely types, namely those who have ran well in both The National, and other races over the fences.

Thought I’d have a quick look anyway, though those firms who have priced it up so far, aren’t taking any chances…..

Alpha Des Obeaux – After being a bit of a disappointment last season, his run in The Munster National was much more like it, and he found only a WPM Hotpot, too good. He then ran with credit in The JNWines, and won nicely at Clonmel yesterday. I get the feeling that he may be one of Giggs main hopes for Aintree this season, and they have said that handicaps will be the plan for him. Different horse this season, and if not hammered for that Clonmel win, then he’s an enormous price. 20’s

Alvarado – An old favourite round here, and needs little introduction. Looked to be regressing last year, until bouncing back to life at Ayr. Seems to thrive in the spring, which might temper enthusiasm, but he ran well last time, behind a very nice horse in Gingili, and he must have place claims again here. 20’s

As De Mee – As much as I’ve always really liked this horse, I wasn’t fully convinced by his National entry, and didn’t really see him over a trip. He seemed to blow that theory out the water at Kelso, but I’m back to square one with him after Sandown. He certainly ran a big race behind Might Bite, but watched it back and still unsure if he didn’t see out the the trip, or had just gave his all against a proper star. Not crabbing him at all, he’s a lovely horse, and he’s a natural round here, as could be seen in The Grand Sefton last season, I just don’t know about the trip. Gun to my head, on the evidence of Kelso, it just might be that he gave his all at Sandown, and is worth another try, and Nicholls is indeed aiming him at The National this year, so on that basis, you have to give him a look for this. 14’s

Aubusson – He’s a strange one Aubusson. He has done little to recommend him for this, but I just can’t bring myself to put a line through him. It’s 3 years since his day in the sun, when he landed The Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, and after only running respectably since, he’s been given a massive chance by the handicapper, and if this place can rejuvenate him, then he can be considered, at the very least, an interesting entry, and we get to see him in The Cross Country today. 20’s

Bishops Road – Had a really good time of it a couple of years back, but in truth, has done next to nothing of note since then. He’s certainly one of the worst priced runners in the line up, and can’t be recommended at all, but if the the going was softer than ideal for a lot of them, then he’d maybe worth re-visiting nearer the time, and he’s another who’s been given a chance by the assessor, as he’s back to his last winning mark. 16’s

Blaklion – On first glance I was surprised he was favourite, as I thought he’s be too high for this, but I was amazed to see he’s only on 153 for this. That’s for an RSA Winner, who’s just ran screamers in The National and Charlie Hall. He’s got the potential to run well in a Gold Cup, and he just looks a worthy favourite. 13-2

Blameitallonmyroots – I considered her for her last run at Carlisle, and though I eventually left her, she still left me a little flat. This is at least the plan, but overall, she hasn’t done enough, yet, to be too enthusiastic here. 33’s

Coologue – Always liked this horse, and his second in The Skybet, along with his with win at Cheltenham last year, would give him a squeak here, but he was very disappointing last time at Cheltenham in the corresponding race, and though dropped a handy 3lbs, he doesn’t look the most obvious right now. 20’s

Dare to Endeavour – Put in a serious performance here a couple of years back in this, but has been dismal since, including when unseating in this last year. He was my selection in The Munster National last year, but that bet was never happening, though I’ve kept an eye on him, and with his mark having evaporated, he suddenly put in his best run for a while at Cork last time. He might just be getting trained for this, trainer certainly knows how to get him ready for this, and he’ll come here on a very very fair mark. One of the most attractive outsiders. 25’s

Doing Fine – He’s a horse I’ve never really enthused about, but he doesn’t half get gambled whenever he runs, and if you’re planning betting him, you’d be as well doing it now. Don’t quite get it myself, but he must do a fair bit at home. He’s a dependable sort, and wasn’t too bad last time, but overall, I’ve just seen a prize like this beyond him. He’s as low as 12’s right now though, and I’m not sure why? I could get an explanation tomorrow at Cheltenham 14’s

Double Ross – Love this horse, and he has to be considered here. I’ve followed him closely for 3, 4 years now, and one of those horses who just seem to be continually underrated, both by pundits, and bookmakers alike. Had a rare unseat at the weekend, but he should be ok, and although he seemed to sulk in The Grand Sefton a couple of years back, I’d put that down to an off day, as he had previously ran a blinder in The Topham, before running a huge race in The 2016 National, where only a slipped saddle brought his challenge to an end. He certainly blew away any stamina doubts that day, though this trip looks perfect for him, and but for his entry at Newbury, I’d say he’s massively overpriced here. I’ve bet him for The Ladbroke at Newbury, but considering that 20’s here as well. 20’s

Emerging Force – Somewhat surprisingly he’s very near the top of the market, and on what he’s achieved, that seems a bit strange. I do think that given more time, he will eventually get a decent pot, and there are certainly hints that this type of race will suit, but I just think he looks a bit skinny at 12’s right now. Certainly a horse I’d be interested in the future, but short term, I think he looks more suitable for The Grand Sefton 16’s

Federici – I’ve always thought he was short of this level, and his recent win, as good as it was to see him get his head in front, has seen him hit with a 5lb rise, and that surely won’t help him here. I would want a lot more than his current price of 25’s.

Gas Line Boy – Running away with a hot handicap here last month, when not for the first time in his career, the fences got in the way. He also looked in control in The Peter Marsh a couple of years ago, when he unshipped his rider, so he does have jumping issues. I just think though that he’s got better with age, and his run in this years National was the best of his career. He immediately became a long term fancy of mine for this, and his run here last month did little to disway me. Slightly frustrating that it’s such a strong entry, with a few more distractions than I’d anticipated. Even more frustrating is his price of 12’s, but I suppose he is in top form, and with him as low as that, I don’t have to rush in, and would happily take 7’s, 8’s on the day. 12’s

Go Conquer – Quite simply a horse going places. Two wins already to his name this season, and both wins were very impressive. I particularly liked that Ascot win, and it was enough for me to part with a few quid for The BetVictor. Owners have other options here, and if he were mine, he would take up his entry in The Grand Sefton. Had no luck here in The Topham, when badly hampered, and for a horse who’s future is surely outwith handicap company, then he must be considered a massive player whichever race he takes in next month. Unusual for the yard to swerve The BetVictor, and that may be a significant pointer on it’s own for this boy. 12’s

Goodtoknow – Chased home One For Arthur at Warwick, which obviously reads very well now, and he followed that up by winning next time out, but things have been harder since. Ran well enough in The National, but the suspicion is that he just might be a bit high in the weights. 25’s

Highland Lodge – Not pocket talk as I didn’t bet him, but he really should have made it 2 in a row in this last year, and probably not the jockeys finest hour. He didn’t re-appear until The National, where the mark of 148 proved way beyond him. A mark like that should be more than enough to stop him here though. Except that he’s been dropped 10 lbs to 138 immediately. Unless there’s been a problem with him that the handicapper is aware of, then he has to be considered a serious serious each way prospect here at 16’s, as that is an incredible drop in the weights. 16’s

Indian Castle – Has looked very good for his layoff, and his comeback at Cheltenham last month was very encouraging. He runs at Cheltenham in a few minutes, where with Sam Waley-Cohen up, he should go well. Trainer in good form, and the horse looks way ahead of his current mark, and looks one to keep an eye on. Has just ran a very encouraging race at Cheltenham20’s

Junction Fourteen – has looked a bit disinterested at times recently, but there has been slivers of hope in his last 2 runs. Not the most obvious, but this place could properly revive him (he could equally hate it), but he’s another to be given a chance off the current mark, and not a lost cause. 25’s

Lessons In Milan – Trevor Hemmings owned runner, who you can be 100% will have The National as the plan this year. Needs a big run to get in there, and from the evidence we seen last year, particularly in The Kim Muir, and The Scottish National, he’s not that far off of a big run. On what he’s achieved so far, he has to step up a bit, but from a top yard and that doesn’t seem out of the question. 25’s

Lord Windermere – Old character, and former Gold Cup Winner, who ran his best race for some time when last seen in The National. Handicapped to go very well here based on that run, the problem is you just don’t know which horse is going to turn up. 25’s

Mala Beach – After a prolonged layoff, his run behind A Genie In A Bottle, was the perfect comeback, after such a long layoff. He proved his suitability for this type of competitive race in The 2016 Thyestes, and if no bounce factor, he looks a threat, though he does look a more likely sort for The Troytown. 20’s

Mendip Express – Hunter Chaser who went so close in this 3 years ago. Now with Philip Hobbs, and he looks the type to be a guaranteed runner here. Doesn’t look the force of old, but he appears to have retained enough ability to justify his place in the line up. His chance wouldn’t be improved by his owner wanting to ride him here, and I don’t know how likely that would be. 20’s

Minellacelebration – Not the most likely here, and has plenty to find, but has enough runs to question his place at the bottom of the market. Not for me, but should be respectable, and should easily outrun his odds. 40’s

Morney Wing – Sporting entry, who did run very well behind Rocky Creek at Sandown last year, but does seem to have lot to find here. 33’s

No Duffer – From a top yard, and looks up against it on overall form. His run at Newbury in March would entitle him to go well, but no guarantee he could reproduce it. 25’s

Perfect Candidate – Seemed to cope ok with the spills and thrills of Aintree well enough in The National for a way, before, possibly, the few extra pounds for his Exeter win, took their toll. I suppose it was only 4 lbs and he should have went closer, but he remains a decent animal, and he’s been dropped another couple of pounds for his quiet comeback. I see him more as the type for a nice 3 Mile Handicap round Prestbury Park, but this is not beyond him, and he’s one of the few here who look overpriced, and could surprise at Cheltenham tomorrow. 25’s

Portrait King – In the veteran stages here, but 6th in this last year, and the season before, fell when in contention in this race, and also The National. Was an incredible 3rd in The Topham, over a trip that should have been too sharp for him on spring ground, and he looks impossible to rule out. 25’s

Present Man – In the form of his life, and just bagged The Badger Ales. Some performance that, considering the going, and although up again, he looks a player here, though The Grand Sefton looks equally suitable. Big player wherever he goes. 12’s.

Rathlin Rose – Never in a rush to write off the trainers runners in this, but still, this looks a step too far based on his last run. He did, however, look the part before that, and firms ain’t taking any chances at 20’s. Possibilities, but has to up his game. 20’s

Regal Encore – Sprung something of a shock at Ascot last December, after finding a few “P’s” in his form. To be fair, he always threatened to land a big prize, and after running a very good race in The National, he reverted to type last time. After failing to trouble the judge since that Ascot win, he remains unchanged, but his profile is what I look for here, and he’s given serious consideration. I’m guessing this might be the day, but not guessing on his ability, and he’ll surely win this season. Given that real possibility, he looks the best priced horse in the race. 33’s

Relentless Dreamer – Looked a horse on the up last summer, but that seems a long time ago now for him. Yard not had the best of the years, and it’s coincided with a mediocre run for the horse. Not for me. 33’s

Rogue Angel – A horse who I’ve always liked, he always had a smooth travelling style, and was usually prominent. He rarely delivered though, not until the 15/16 season when he landed both The Kerry and Irish Nationals. Life has understandably been tougher since, but I maintain he’s held his form to a certain degree, and I bet him in that Cork National last week, and chanced him on the day at Aintree. I got a run from him last week, without really looking like delivering, but he’s on a nice mark, and I wouldn’t totally rule him out. Should be winning this season. That blurb is from The Troytown thread, but seems equally valid here, and I’d much prefer to see him back at Aintree for this, he ticks loads of boxes. 20’s

Royale Knight – Finished 6th in The 2015 National, when not appearing to last home. Never quite followed that up, but ran very well at Ayr last year, and has had the other good run here and there. I’ve bet him a few times, he impressed me on more than one occasion, but I do worry about his last run, which gives doubts about his chances for this. 33’s

Shantou Flyer – Certainly had his moments over the years, but I still find it incredible that he carried the number 3 cloth in The Grand National, he was just too high in the weights. He could very well improve for leaving the Rebecca Curtis yard, and he is a nice horse in his own right, but I’d like to see him down a few pounds. 33’s

Silver Man – A winner at Cartmel during the summer, but his overall form leaves him with fair bit to find, and he just looks a shade high for me as a result. 33’s

Sizing Codelco – I’ve got high hopes for this horse, but this race was never on my radar for him. Trainer thinks the world of him, and admits that he got him badly wrong at Cheltenham. His subsequent wins at Aintree and Punchestown though justified the trainers opinion, and both times he showed a real battling quality that I love in a horse. His run at Aintree was particularly impressive, when he had a wall of horses coming at him as they headed for home, and he showed them a clean pair of heels. Very impressive. I had it down as the performance I would want from a Gold Cup Contender, for which I’ve duly bet him, along with The Ladbroke Trophy at Newbury. I’m not convinced of him here, and want him to head to Newbury anyway. I’m assuming/hoping his seasonal reappearance was a freshener, and I’m hoping to see more from him this weekend at Cheltenham. 20’s

Smooth Stepper – I like the trainers runners in this race, but he was easily swept aside in The Durham National a fortnight ago, and surely a similar fate awaits him here.33’s

Solstice Son – Doesn’t seem to have the form in the bag for this, and never really came to my attention either, being a solid, rather than flashy sort. I took more of an interest though when Honeyball sent him to Punchestown. He’s got to have something to go to that effort, and I’ll pay close attention to him at Cheltenham today. There’s just the suspicion that he could run well here. Has just shown himself to be in good heart at Cheltenham 25’s

Southfield Theatre – Not seen too much over the last couple of years, but should have won The Badger Ales last year, but for a final fence exit, and ran well in it last week too. Also ran a big race at Sandown in The Bet365 Gold Cup, and bar a rare blip at Cheltenham, he’s been pretty solid. Looked to have plenty of ability as a Novice, and and looks one of the more likely ones here, and he looks big with Skybet. 25’s

Straidnahanna – This is a horse I’ve always had time for, and was very impressed with the manner of his win at Catterick last year, regardless of the opposition he faced that day. I had prizes like this in mind for him, but it really hasn’t happened for him. I still have a bit of respect for him though, and can’t bring myself to completely write him off here. Getting closer to that last winning mark, and not a lost cause on his Topham run. 33’s

Streets of Promise – Missing from a couple of firms lists, which maybe suggests he won’t be going. Hard work for him if he did make it. 33’s

Sugar Baron – Bar an early exit in The Scottish National, he’s ran well enough in the bigger races he’s taken in, and remains one with potential. Takes in the amateurs handicap today at Cheltenham, and that should hopefully provide a few clues. Has just missed out in that amateurs handicap. Finished very well, but the mistakes are still there. 25’s

Theatre Guide – Unusual to see a Jean Bishop horse entered round here, but very pleased to see him in there. He rarely runs a bad race, and having made the frame in last weekends Badger Ales, he also won The Unicoin at Cheltenham, and placed in The Betbright, and The Bet365 Gold Cups. That entitles to him serious respect here, and although high enough in the weights, he has the ability to handle it. I wouldn’t be rushing in Ante-Post, as I’d be surprised if this was the #1 target, but I’d have a long look at him if he made it on the day. 20’s

The Last Samuri – After initially speaking favourably about him in the build up to The National last year, another look at him, showed him to have little chance, and I was rather negative towards his chances, and so it transpired, as he never figured, and was a bit of an “also ran”. He’s better than that though, and this might just be his race. 3rd last year, a year in which he also finished 2nd in the big one, and he looks a perfect fit for this race. I got the impression he had been trained for this, rather than The National last year, and he has to be high on anyones shortlist this time around. 12’s

The Young Master – He looked to have big things ahead of him, but bar a couple of solid runs at The Festival, and a smashing performance at Sandown, he’s overall, been a bit disappointing. He unseated at Ascot last time, and that was the 4th times in his last 12 runs, he’s parted company with the rider. I’m not quick to rule him out though, and with him running off 145 here, he must have some sort of chance, as much as that has to be taken on trust. The ability is there, and the mark is perfect, but the jumping is the problem. I had him down as strong National contender for a couple of years, and though I can forgive him his fall at Bechers in The National, the fact that he was well beaten when he fell in this last years, just tempers enthusiasm a little. Despite the negativity, he would still be on my early, tentative shortlist. 16’s

Third Intention – Solid dependable sort, who’s tasted success at the venue in The Old Roan, and also made the frame in The Topham. Came to grief in this years renewal, but he looks to retain enough ability, based on his last run, and though he disappointed slightly in this years Old Roan, I think he’s weighted to be very competitive here, and he’s a smashing price. 33’s

Three Faces West – After a seasonal reappearance last term, that could only be described as dismal, he quickly got his act together, and his two subsequent victories were in the manner of a very very good horse. His most recent win, at Newbury, I thought anyway, was enough to make him favourite for The National, or close to, but he didn’t quite grab other peoples attention. It was all academic anyway, as he had a setback early in the year, and misses the rest of the season. If over that setback, which was reportedly minor, then off 147, he has every chance here, and he’s high enough on my Grand National shortlist. The negatives? Well, that run at Carlisle was poor, and he might just not be the best fresh, who knows? It wouldn’t do his mark any harm if his comeback run at Cheltenham tomorrow ends in disappointment. Other negatives are his jumping style, he can be quite low, but hopefully the new softer fences can accommodate that, and obviously a good run tomorrow would be another negative as he would go up the weights a fair bit, and he might not the the samwe horse after his injury anyway. Plenty of positives though, not least the simple fact that he looked a very very good horse last year, and don’t laugh, but the way he was progressing, I had him earmarked for a future outwith handicaps. Fingers crossed the injury has had no lasting effects. If sound, shortlist material. 20’s

Thunder and Roses – Was solid as hell last year, and ran plenty of good races. Very unfairly has an UR next to his name from Aintree, he was clearly brought down, and in the process of running well. He might just need more of a test than this, but this former Irish National winner should have another decent season. Recent run was 4th to Our Duke at Fairyhouse, and despite the poor re-appearance from his last week, I still think that is a solid piece of form, and he has everything going for him here. Like Rogue Angel, he would appear to have an even stronger chance here than at Navan. 20’s

Topper Thornton – I thought he ran a cracker behind Harry The Viking last time at Carlisle, and that type of performance could see him involved, but the main body off his form before that, leaves him short here. 33’s

Ucello Conti – Sixth in The 2016 National, close up in this last year, and from the Elliot yard, he looks one to easily forgive his soft unseat at Bechers in this years National, and if you draw up the perfect profile for this race, it would be this boy. 14’s

Vic De Touzaine – Main body of his form leaves a bit of work required, though he has won a minor event already this season. He must be showing plenty at home, and have a few pounds in hand, as he was subject of some serious support for last weekends Badger Ales, for which he looked up against it anyway. He duly pulled up, and that gamble last weekend remains a mystery to me, but I am always very wary of these ones who get gambled. Who know’s what he’s got up his sleeve. 25’s

Vicente – Has won the last 2 renewals of The Scottish National, though tipped up here at the first in The National itself. He does have jumping issues anyway, he also fell in The Hennessy, and put in a terrible round at Haydock. He’s still on a handy mark though, and if they’ve worked on that jumping, then he represents connections who won’t be running him here just to get his mark down for April, he’ll be in it to win it. 20’s

Vieux Lion Rouge – Last years winner, and generally just very reliable round here. There’s a chance that The National trip is just beyond him, but no such problems here, and after a satisfactory run in The Charlie Hall, then even off of 10lbs higher, he has to be considered here. 12’s

Viva Steve – Always been a bit hit and miss, and hard to pin down, but there’s always been the thought that he’s better than the bare form, and his run in The Kerry National was rock solid. From a yard I’ve got a lot of time for, and there’s surely more to come from him, and this race looks like a very sensible target. 20’s

Vyta Du Roc – Looks primed to play a serious role in at least one big handicap this season. Based on his Sandown run, he’s got plenty in hand of his current mark, and he could have a proper chance here. I just think though, that he may be in here in case of any mishap to Ucello Conti, and he looks to have his main target at Newbury, as his current price would be absurd otherwise. 33’s

Westerner Point – Had a fantastic time of it last season, and has generally ran very well the last couple of years, and often in very decent company. After a quiet enough comeback, he was much more like it over hurdles yesterday at Clonmel, and he is a very intriguing entry. I’ll be very interested to see what mark he’s allocated, and he looks the darkest of dark horses. 33’s

What Happens Now – No question he’s going the right way, and he couldn’t have done much more than he did at Cheltenham last time. Life will be tougher after that, and we’ll see today at Cheltenham, how that rise will have affected him, but until we see a serious reverse, he looks promising enough. Ran ok there just now at Cheltenham, but has the mark caught up on him?20’s

Wounded Warrior – Looked to have loads of potential a couple of years back, but hard to recommend on recent form, and has plenty of questions to answer here. 33’s

Yala Enki – I had high hopes for this horse, and he has a couple of wins to his name over the larger obstacles. I think his best piece of form though was in The Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock, as his wins don’t read that well now, and when upped in to better company, he’s come up a little short, and although I was very interested in him for The Badger Ales, and thought he had a serious chance, he was found wanting once more. 20’s

Too hard to call at the moment, though if signs are positive for Three Faces West tomorrow, I will snap up that 20’s, while the Irish pair of Dare To Endeavour, and particularly Westerner Point make serious appeal, as to compatriots, Thunder and Roses, and Rogue Angel.

There are far too many of the “familiar faces” here, the types who tend to do well in this, but the pick of them may be Ucello Conti.

Main Fancies (Right now)
Gas Line Boy 12’s
Three Faces West 20’s
Regal Encore 33’s

Each Way (Right Now)
Dare to Endeavour 25’s
Westerner Point 33’s

Good Luck