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I can see The New One grinding this out and make it third time lucky, there’s no stand out horse now so has as good a chance as any on form. It would be a tough choice for STD between him and Old Guard, though…
From a trends point of view there’s only been one winner under 9 years old in the past 10 years, and only 3 over 11 stone. I firmly believe these two simple stats will be further accentuated with the likely desperate conditions come Saturday. so add to that a sound jumper and a heavy ground reveller, something like Vics Canvas could go well. He is a strong stayer and ran well in the Bet365 earlier this year. It’s late in the day to be trying Aintree as a 12 yo but it could be one last swan song for this likeable Irish raider.
This looks a more open affair than meets the eye. This Coneygree is some animal and if at his best he’ll take some beating, but I’m willing to take him on, as well as the Nichols horse, who I simply don’t think is a good enough jumper to win a race like the hennessy.
Houblon Des Obeaux looks to have conditions to suit and a weight that surely puts him right in the thick of things.
Bobs Worth is certainly a very tempting proposition, however I’ve never really been overly anamoured with him. I’ll order in a fresh batch of humble pie, in the event he proves me wrong… again.
Splash of Ginge is a favourite of mine, however may be a little out of his depth in this company and I’m not quite convinced he’ll see out the trip at this stage in his career.
Two horses at the bottom of the weights I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on are Fingal Bay and Theatre Guide. The former was disappointing in this last year, however he comes back with a good run under his beer, has less weight on his back and represents a stable in flying form. This race has always been of interest when talking about Theatre Guide. Ticks all the right boxes and again the stable is bringing in the winners.
I see Splash of Ginge as a future Grand National winner, so whatever he does now is a bonus. He could run well at a price but not for win purposes.
Agree re. Theatre Guide, bit of a forgotten horse, ran a blinder two years ago and looks well handicapped. Fingal Bay is an enigma but could easily go close. Think all roads lead to the festival again with him though.
Irving looks back to his best judged on his two wins so far this season, 5/2 looks decent value to me to retain his title. Purple Bay looks good each way material, there’s no shame being beaten by Bobs Worth and Simonsig and think the bookies have overreacted to that defeat. Rated 3 lbs inferior to Irving and yet is 4 times the price.
I too would give Tour Des Champs a squeak. I notice he’s been entered up in the Becher as well, so may have the Grand National as the target, but this mudlark must have a chance on 129 provided he can jump better than he did in 2013.
Salubrious is another on my radar, although lacks chasing experience. Has a touch of class and could very well stay the trip.
Venetia has made another excellent start to the season (November/December on soft ground is her time of year) so anything representing her must have a chance.
I am attending this meeting for the first time so hoping for some good luck!
Hi, new to this board but for what its worth this is what i think of tomorrow, incidentally it will be my firs time to cheltenham:
Kia Kaha – looked a nice progressive type last time and im sure mccoy and jonjo will have sorted out his awkward jumping.
It’s My Boy: Jumps well in the main and could be really fit for this one.
Franchoek: the next katchit? won his last race really well.
Vodka Bleu: second here last year, is remarkably weighted judged on that and think he will take the beating.
Sonnyanjoe: comes in good form and with doubts over the ground with blazing bailey, hes the next best.
L’ami – the best horse in the race and can defy top weight in a lesser race
