Becher Chase 2015

The big races coming up thick and fast, and next Saturday sees them go over The National Fences once again.

Had a nice payday in this 2 years ago, and really should have had a repeat last year, though making a small profit in running from Our Father, who went for home too soon, paled into insignificance with what I would have got, had he won. Probably for the best that I don’t look at my record in this beyond the last 2 years.

Not a race where you would immediately look to see what Gigginstown have entered, but it’s impossible to look at the entries without being instantly drawn to their big guns who might take their chance. The only runner they’ve had in this in the last few seasons, that I can remember anyway, was One Cool Cookie, and I’m scratching my head to even remember them having entered any since. With that in mind, you’ve got to assume that at least one of them looks to take their chance. Don Poli, who looks a serious contender for The Gold Cup, not surprisingly heads the weights, and if allowed to take his chance, well, he could run away with it, despite the burden. Smashing horse, who can easily be forgiven his last run at Punchestown, where he was eventually well beaten. He’s better than that, much better. Valseur Lido won that day at Punchestown, and he’s another who must have Cheltenham in mind, and no back number for something like The Gold Cup, or The Ryanair. Interesting though that he was a late withdrawal for The Hennessy, and may just be that they are going the handicap route with him. Having said that, I’d still be a bit surprised to see him go here, and along with Don Poli, I’d still be a little surprised to see them trap. Thunder And Roses, the Irish National hero looks a more obvious candidate of theirs. I could easily see them sending him here to see how he takes it to it with The National in mind, though more than capable of landing a serious blow here itself. He had a more than acceptable return over hurdles the other day, and I think he might be better than 146, he’s got loads of good runs in decent company to his name. Their final entry, old First Lieutenant, has just run his best race for a while in The Hennessy, but after those exertions, and even allowing for him looking well treated, it must be touch and go that he goes here, though not a forlorn hope for the big one at Aintree in April. Chucked a few quid at him at 26’s, but surely he’s a non starter.

It’s a fairly strong Irish entry on the whole, and market leader is Goonyella, a horse I seem to have been mentioning with races like this in mind for years now, but he’s only an 8 year old. Was an early casualty in this last year, but with his Midlands National win, and placed effort at Ayr fresh in the memory, not to mention several other decent efforts in good races in recent years, then he looks a worthy favourite and a danger to all. The 14’s with Boylesports looks very fair. Heathfield is the only JP owned entry, and not surprisingly, joins Goonyella, near the head of the market. I had The Paddy Power at Leapordstown over Christmas in mind for him, but this looks the plan, and after his prep over hurdles recently, based on what we seen of him last season, he looks primed for a big run. Winner of that Paddy Power Chase last season, Living Next Door, has not been seen since, and would be a big achievement to come out and land this, though he does re-appear over timber at Fairyhouse tomorrow. Up a whopping 15lbs for that success, I’m inclined to leave him alone, but equally in no rush to crab him either, takes a lot to win that race at Leapordstown. I’d prefer the evergreen Vic’s Canvas, who was third behind Living Next Door that day, and after narrowly going down to Just A Par at Sandown last April, he followed this up with an adequate return in The Fixed Brush Hurdle. Wouldn’t be the first big race winner to come out of that Haydock contest, and he’ll certainly be facing Living Next Door on much better terms. Not getting any younger as a 12yo, but plenty of veterans have landed this, and the 20’s with Hills looks generous. I was very close to taking that. Bless The Wings continues to run well without doing quite enough to get his head in front, but he had a great spin in The Cross Country, and from a shrewd trainer, he could easily make a mockery of his current mark, considering what he was running under a couple of years back. Had a nice spin round here in The Topham as well, though may be doubtful, as he’s another who runs tomorrow at Fairyhouse. Man With Van ran no sort of race at Newcastle today, so I’ll pass him over, whilst I don’t know what to make of Art Of Logistics. He ran a fine race in The Topham, but he continues to mainly disappoint, and the only thing, bar that Topham run that I can see in his favour, is that if Sandra Hughes can get him back, then he looks very well handicapped indeed. Pass The Hat is a horse who I thought would have landed a big one by now, but things haven’t went right for him, including getting brought down last time. He caught the eye at Killarney last summer, with plenty of future winners behind him, but he really does need to show more here, for all that he looks well treated. I can’t confidently write him off, there’s a decent prize in him, and he makes some small appeal at 33’s. Portrait King was in the process of running a sound race in The National before tipping up at the 28th, and no reason why he can’t run another sound race, but recent efforts have left a few question marks as well, whilst I can’t have Dare To Endeavour.

Paul Nicholls has a few interesting contenders, and my thoughts on a few of them for this can be summed up by my thoughts on The Welsh National thread……….

The first horse to grab my attention when I seen the entries was Benvolio. The Paul Nicholls trained runner, looked to travel really well in his seasonal debut in The Badger Ales, and I thought he looked as if he’d come on a ton for that. The only thing stopping me having a nibble at the 20’s, is the entry he holds for Aintree next weekend. Looks a winner waiting to happen wherever he goes. Nicholls has a few entered, including Rocky Creek, and Unioniste, who both hold an entry for Aintree as well. I find both of these horses so hard to predict, and although both look weighted to the hilt, they’re both decent animals.

I still like Benvolio, and just hoping he heads here, rather than Chepstow. Was close to betting him. Nicholls also has Sam Winner entered, along with Mon Parrain. Sam Winner was an eyecatcher in The Charlie Hall, with race conditions against him, and even though he had a couple of moody displays to his name last season, he also has a couple of gutsy wins in the locker, to go with that run at Wetherby. Despite the fact he’ll be carrying a big weight round here, I wouldn’t be in any rush to write him off. I caught Mon Parrain right at Cheltenham last new year at 25’s, it was a good race for me, and he owes me nothing. I gave him serious consideration for this, but with his run in mind in The National, it might just be that he needs to come down a couple of pounds, though quite why he’s 33’s is beyond me, his chances are better than that. Obviously I’ve went for Benvolio, but as far as what actually lines up from the yard, then it might be worth noting the jockey bookings. Should Benvolio miss it, I’ll be giving Sam Winner, and Mon Parrain a second look.

The one I’m taking a chance on is Soll. Unlike The Grand National itself, horses with a decent record over these fences tend to pop up more often that not, and he seems to have enjoyed it round here on his previous 3 visits. I get the suspicion that the National trip just stretches him, and even though he looks just a shade high in the weights, and the Pipe stable isn’t really firing just now, with him being the yards only representative, he looks the right type for me, and the 33’s with Totesport, and Betfred, just has to be taken. Think he has a rock solid each way look to him.

Dolatulo, seems to have a similar profile to Soll, and I could easily see the sense in siding with this Warren Greatrex runner instead. Jumped round here twice last season, and like Soll, I think The National trip just stretched him. Still paying the price for his win in The Rowland Meyrick, he’s down a couple of pounds now, and I could easily see him giving supporters a run for their money at 25’s

Talking of horses who like it round here, then 2014 National Winner, Pineau De Re, and 2015 Runner Up, Saint Are, both look certain runners. I’d totally written Pineau De Re off, but his run at Sandown last time was much more like it, and can’t be ruled out off the back of that run, whilst Saint Are, who I didn’t give a chance to at Aintree last spring, might just be weighted out of this, and I feel a place might be his best chance off his current mark. Happy to be wrong though, and always good to see the familiar faces re-appear back round these fences.

Down the field behind Saint Are in April, was Night In Milan, who ran with a few quid of mine weighing him down. Given a peach of a ride by James Reveley, he was brought into it with every chance, but just didn’t seem to last home. First impression is that a repeat bid would be on the cards, but is there a chance that this is the main target for the season, with his recent spins over hurdles getting him spot on. I don’t see why not, and although he emptied out quickly at Doncaster yesterday, he must come here with some sort of chance, assuming there’s no physical reason for how he finished yesterday.

Nigel Twiston Davies is no stranger to success in this race, and he could be represented by Algernon Pazham, Tour Des Champs, and Foxbridge. Algernon comes here fresh off the back of a solid run at Bangor last time, in a very competitive handicap, and he looks sure to come on for that. He was going the right way last year, and NTD looks to have him in good nick. The same could apply to Foxbridge, who also filled the runner up spot last time out, at Cheltenham. I’ve been following Tour Des Champs since his Novice days, and he’s cost me a fair few quid in his time, but he did stop the rut for me in The Scottish National at huge odds. He then ran his best races in The Betbright Chase at Kempton, and the 3 Miler at Cheltenham, but unfortunately things have obviously not went to plan, and he missed last year. A huge ask to ask him to win this first time back, and jumping was never his forte, so should he run in this, I’ll be watching from behind the sofa. He’ll still have a sentimental couple of quid of mine on him should he go, but I very much prefer his chances at Chepstow.

The Sue Smith yard is in fine form, and she could be represented by No Planning. I like her runners in races like this, and she landed The Rehearsal Chase today at Newcastle. I much preferred her Vintage Star for this, and thought he had a chance at a big price, but it doesn’t look like he’s going. No Planning doesn’t look out of this, but he did have a hard slog at Haydock last week, and would depend how he comes out of that.

I’ve not been convinced by the runs of some of the Rebecca Curtis runners lately, and that tempers my enthusiasm for The Romford Pele, who looked a horse of real promise last season. Definitely a watching brief for him for the timebeing, and I’d rather be with Bob Ford of her two. He’s quickly falling down the weights to a more realistic mark, close to what he won off at Ffos Las in January, and he has shown he can jump round here.

Harry Fry went close in this last year with Mendip Express, so he knows what it takes, and he looks like giving his No Planning his chance. This would be a big step up for him, and he’s not my idea of the winner, but neither was Mendip last year, and he very nearly made me eat my words

The Last Samuri looks a National type to me, and he ran a cracker at Newcastle today, but it did look as if it may have left it’s mark on that ground, and his participation would have to be debatable. One to keep in mind for April in my opinion.

The Jo Hughes trained Silver Man looks to have a tough task on his hands based on what he’s actually achieved, and despite winning last time out, the same could apply to the Venetia Williams trained Saroque. I follow the Williams stable, and normally make a solid profit off her, but I’ve been calling it wrong this season, and her Houblon Des Obeaux was bitterly disappointing in todays Hennessy. The fact he’s her only entry makes me give him a second glance, but he’s still not for me.

Ardkilly Witness, Godsmejudge, Highland Lodge, and Cowards Close have all switched yards, and are hard to fancy for me, though Godsmejusge has plummeted down the weights, but would take a leap of faith for him.

I’m struggling to make a case for Wiesentraum, Financial Climate, Toby Lerone, and although I’ve seen a couple of runs from Garrahalish that would give him a small chance, I’ll pass him over as well.

Unzo Du Bara, the French entry, is a complete unknown to me. I just wonder if he’s a potential French Challenger for the big one in Aintree, and it’ll be interesting to see how gets on, should he take his chances.

Of the rest of the outsiders, I could easily make a case for Harry The Viking, and Buachaill Allain. Harry has plenty of runs from last season to give him a chance, and he’s back to more realistic 129. Once ran in The National off 140 when with Paul Nicolls, and he’s no 25-1 shot. Buachaill, from a yard who’s ruuners are worth noting round here, is fairly consistent, and chased home subsequent Badger Ales winner, Drop Out Joe, at Chepstown in October, and the only negative I can see is that he had fairly hard race at Haydock last week. Regardless of that, the 33’s with Bet365 looks far too big.

Last but not least is my old “friend” Ikorodu Road. Bet him many a time, and he’s a bit of a monkey, but I’ve got a real soft spot for him, and even allowing for a decent run at Doncaster last year, I’m struggling to make any kind of case for him. Not only with his run in this 2 years ago, when he seemed to hate it, but also with him getting wiser with his advancing years, I’ve just got to pass him over. Won’t know whether to laugh or cry should he win.

Soll for me then, but an ultra competitive looking list of entries, with plenty of potential winners in there. Of the outsider, Harry The Viking, and Buachaill Allain look the most appealing, and Vic’s Canvas could be overpriced.