Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 2017

Very strong looking entry here, and hopefully Caspian Caviar will get a strong field for this, to reward their continued sponsorship, as race has cut up a couple of times. Doesn’t have the quantity of The BetVictor Gold Cup entries, but arguably, at this stage anyway, the quality is better.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2017-12-16/689051

Acapella Bourgeois – Big talking horse in The Troytown, but fell early on, and we never got a chance to see where he’s at. Strongly suspected to come on a ton for his switch to Willie Mullins, and although this may just be on the sharp side for him, no surprise to see WPM send him here to take advantage of what is surely a very nice mark. I can see him coming here, and he’ll be more than half the current 12’s, if he does. 12’s

Ballyalton – Winner of The 2016 Close Bros Novices, this is a horse I have a lot of time for. Had a setback soon after, which meant we didn’t get to see him for a long spell, but his return over hurdles at Aintree was very encouraging, and his 4th in The BetVictor was a cracking run, considering conditions were against him. A drier spell in the lead up to this would greatly enhance his chances, he would certainly have been closer last time but for the heavens opening, and from what I’ve seen of him after injury, he’s weighted to win this. Weather permitting, shortlist material. 12’s

Bouvreil – Has run his fair share of strong races, not least in The Plate at Cheltenham this year, but there’s no question he’s getting frustrating. Considering connections, he’s not one to write off in a hurry, but he must really step up his game now. Didn’t do too much yesterday behind Gold Present either. I think he can bounce back, and if you put a line through that Newbury run, then he really is a big price. 33’s

Calipto – Not a bad sort at all for Paul Nicholls, and has a few decent runs to his name. His best run since switching to Venetia Williams was a very decent 6th in The Grand Annual, and on that run, he’s certainly weighted to run well. Not one that jumps off the page, but Venetia is a trainer to take seriously in this race, and with no ground concerns, and no issues with the trip, he’s an outsider to consider. 25’s

Casablanca Mix – Not the star of Seven Barrows by any stretch, and rarely mixes it in company like this, but he did win last time in a weak enough affair, coming off the back of giving Willoughby Court something to think about at Huntingdon. Very hard to judge his chances here. Got to respect trainers runners, and that run at Huntingdon behind Willoughby was decent, but this would be different to anything he’s faced before. Wouldn’t be my first choice, but he’s as low as 10’s. 16’s

Cepage – As mentioned, Venetia really does target this race, and often preps them at Ascot, as she did with Cepage this time. He ran a cracker last week there behind Sir Valentino, and everything points to him being a serious player here. 16’s isn’t as big as I hoped for, but it’s still a very fair price, and he was the name I wanted to see in the entries. 16’s

Childrens List – For a WPM/Ricci horse, he’s relatively low profile. Certainly versatile tripwise, and was doing plenty at the end when last seen. He probably hasn’t done enough overall, and he doesn’t look the most obvious runner here, and looks to be more of a speculative entry. Doesn’t really appeal at this stage at all, but obviously worth a look if he makes the journey. 25’s

Clan Des Obeaux – In all the excitement and discussion after Bristol De Mai in The Betfair, this boys performance at Haydock was largely overlooked. He was very impressive, and more than suggested that he was up to prizes like this. Possibly short enough for him, I can see him being a Gold Cup Horse in time, but I was very taken by him last week, and I think he deserves his place at the head of the market. 10’s

Deauville Dancer – He’s won 3 on the bounce, and although a weak affair, his win at Doncaster yesterday showed him to be still improving. You can only beat what’s put in front of you, but those wins were miles away from this level, and it still looks a big ask to take this, not that he doesn’t deserve to take his chance. 33’s

Doitforthevillage – Very nice winner here last month in a competitive enough race, that was a more than acceptable prep for this, and he seems to be going the right way. Maybe pushing it for win purposes, but should the race cut up, then he surely has place claims, and the 4lb rise for his win here, is very fair. 16’s

Foxtail Hill – Strong fancy of mine for The BetVictor, and although he has previous on soft, I really do think it was the rain that beat him. I really rate him, and the 7lb hike for his very impressive win here in October, shouldn’t have been too prohibitive. Maybe not worth diving in early this time, and despite that reverse last time, I remain a fan, and I can’t rule him out at all. The manner of that win here suggests there’s more to come. 16’s

Gino Trail – Certainly getting on a bit at 10, but there’s not too many miles on the clock. Seems to have thrived for his switch to Kerry Lee, and was a recent winner at Wetherby. Ran with some credit in The Old Roan, and also at The National Meeting, and generally speaking, he normally runs his race. Not a forlorn hope, but it would surely be a bit of a shock if he got up. 25’s

Go Conquer – Definitely a horse on the up, with two impressive wins already to his name this season. I particularly liked that Ascot win, and it was enough for me to part with a few quid for The BetVictor, though ultimately he swerved that prize. Holds entries in The Becher, and The Grand Sefton next weekend, and for a horse who’s future is surely outwith handicap company, then he must be considered a massive player for whichever race he ultimately takes in. Unusual for the yard to swerve The BetVictor, and that may be a significant pointer on it’s own for this boy, wherever he goes. Was a big fan of him for The Grand Sefton, but this race would tick a lot of boxes too. Big danger, though not one to dive in with, considering those other targets. 10’s

Gold Present – Another horse who surprisingly sat out The BetVictor, but that proved a wise decision, with him winning at Newbury yesterday. He also holds an entry in The Grand Sefton, though that surely comes too soon. The manner of his win on Saturday shouldn’t mean too harsh a rise, and I believe he had a few pounds in hand anyway. Price hasn’t retracted too much, and he must have a live chance. 14’s

Guitar Pete – I was very impressed when he took care of Sametegal at Wetherby, and he only found an on song Ballyboley too good at Market Rasen. He ran in The BetVictor, but his race was basically over at the first, when he was nearly brought to a standstill by a faller. Part of me thinks that a prize like this just might be beyond him, but he’s done little wrong of late, and has to be considered, certainly at his current price, which looks too big. 33’s

Kilcrea Vale – Really caught the eye last year in his Novice Season, culminating in a solid enough run behind Yorkhill at Cheltenham. Not really in the same form since though. He’s bang there on the strength of last season, and he looks on a dangerous mark, but his more recent runs, raise a few question marks, and last time at Ascot, was way short of what’s required here. 25’s

Kings Odyssey – He’d have to step up on his seasonal bow at Carlisle, and he failed to land a blow in The Plate at The Festival, but his run in this last year is probably the race to judge him on. He was travelling like a dream, when he fell a few fences from home, and there has to be the real possibility that he’s being trained with this race in mind. 20’s

Kylemore Lough – Had everything going for him in The BetVictor, but a mistake at The Water ended his chances, as he picked up a knock. If over that, then he’s right back into the reckoning, but there’s just the niggling doubt that he won’t be 100%. His chances would only be improved by rain, so one of those who it might be worth checking the weather for. 14’s

Le Prezien – Bar a rare off day at Punchestown last year, he really doesn’t know how to run a bad race. His 2 runs at the track this season have been very good, but I just wonder if connections, and indeed punters, are getting a bit frustrated at him not getting his head in front. I’ve a feeling he might want it soft, so maybe not one to dive in on at a short price just now, so maybe one to revisit after final decs. He’s certainly creeping up the weights, and without a recent win to show for it, so maybe just a tad short at the price, but still, an obvious player. 10’s

Long House Hall – Fascinating entry, and I was always a very big fan of this horse, a horse who’s clearly had a few setbacks. Improved markedly for his switch to Dan Skelton, and he ran a huge race behind Diamond King in The Coral Cup, before running out a very nice winner of The Summer Plate at at Market Rasen. Not seen since though, and may just be that he needs this, but even if that’s the case, he’s a horse to keep an eye on, and I hope the ability is retained. Firms ain’t taking any chances though, and he’s as low as 12’s in places. 16’s

Max Ward – Nice horse at his own level, but I think that his level is just below this. I’d have wanted him to be closer to Exitas last time, and if he’s to figure, he may need the race to cut up a fair bit. 25’s

Oldgrangewood – Ran many a good race last season, certainly catching my eye, and he’s returned this season in very good heart, with a decent spin over hurdles, and won with more ease than he got credit for at Newbury on Friday. Considering that this was off the back of a fine third in The Old Roan, then he’s obviously one to consider. 14’s

On Tour – He’s been a solid, if not spectacular horse, the last couple of seasons, but there’s just a sign that things are starting to click. His win at Aintree in October, had the more than capable Master Dee, and Ballyboley behind him, and yesterday at Newbury, I thought he was travelling ominously well, when unseating close to home, behind Gold Present. I’m happy on that evidence that his 5lb rise for the Aintree win is fair, and I give him a live chance here. 16’s

O O Seven – Held by Oldgrangewood in that race at Newbury, but generally, looks to me as if a prize like this is not beyond him. He wasn’t far away on Friday, and though strictly speaking, this is a big ask on his overall form, visually, I’ve seen enough to think he could figure here. 20’s

Quite By Chance – Not quite sure what to make of him. Looked steadily progressive this time last year, after a couple of big runs at Ascot, 2 runs which seen him rise a fair bit in the weights. On the whole, that rise seems to have him held, but I keep going back to him in this race last year, where he was fourth, and should arguably been a lot closer. Possibly not given the best of rides that day, and met some trouble in running. Difficult one to weigh up then. Looks weighted out of it, but is a recovery mission here the actual plan? He looks a fair price if it’s the latter. 25’s

Romain De Senam – Big fan of this horse as a juvenile, and he looked just the right type to thrive over fences. Didn’t go immediately to plan, and he had a few disappointing efforts, not least a very poor show at Kempton. He’s come back a different horse this term though, and his 5th in The BetVictor was off the back of a couple of wins. He looks more than capable of improving on that 5th last time, and I think he has the perfect profile for this. 16’s

Shantou Flyer – I said before The National, that this horses mark was ridiculous, and would have went as far as saying that he was one of the worst handicapped horses in training. For him to carry the “3” cloth in The National made little to no sense, as he didn’t have one run which had him even close to that kind of mark. Winning in a bog against a jaded (in hindsight) Village Vic, and filling the runners up spot against Cue Card (I questioned the merit of that run at the time), did not justify such a mark. He’s been a “no show” in The Charlie Hall & Betfair, which isn’t a surprise, as he had next to zero chances in those races. To be fair to connections, they had no choice but to run him there, as he’d be weighted out of pretty much everything else, and they were in no mans land with him. Very hard to recommend here, but he is slowly coming back down the weights, and though I couldn’t possibly be with him, if I couldn’t find the winner myself, I’d love to be proved wrong, though maybe one for later in the season. 33’s

Splash of Ginge – A very popular winner of The BetVictor, and if that wasn’t a blip, I certainly don’t think it was, then he has to be considered as one of the big players here. He’s only been given a 5lb rise for that win, and if you look at the mark poor old Shantou is on, then it just seems as if Ginge has been given a real chance for the double. He’ll be off of 139, and worth noting that off of 145, he was absolutely cruising in this 3 years ago, when he fell 4 out. Big chance. 14’s

Starchitect – He’s enjoyed a really fine 2017, not least at The Festival behind Road To Respect, and just held by Ginge here last time. 4lb rise shouldn’t make much of a difference to his chances here, and not surprised he’s a relatively short price, as low as 7’s, and he’s an obvious player. 10’s

Theinval – Always been a fan of this horse, and after his win at Aintree two years ago, over timber, I really did think he’d bag a few pots over fences, and it was prizes like this I had in mind for him. He’s had his moments, but not quite hit the heights I expected. Fell at the first in The BetVictor, and looked just short of this, when third at Newbury on Friday, but I think he remains the type to pop up when least expected, and in no rush at all to write him off here. 25’s

Top Gamble – Very nice horse, and his mark probably reflects the company he’s kept over the last couple of years. Disappointing re-appearance at Ascot last time, and I’d have to pass him over him here, as he looks too high in the weights. 33’s

Total Recall – Needs no introduction after yesterday, but although he’d look extremely well handicapped, he surely won’t go here. 14’s

Vaniteux – Has done little of note since joining David Pipe’s, though hardly a surprise off of 158. Handicapper relenting slightly, he’s been dropped 4, to a mark where he has at least been competitive in the past, but not seen enough to persuade me recently, and maybe one to bear in mind for the warmer months. Interestingly though, he’s as low as 16’s with 365, but I do think he deserves the large price he is elsewhere. 40’s

Vic De Touzaine – I was a little bemused by the support for him in The Badger Ales, his win at Carlisle didn’t seem to merit a 7lb rise, and so it proved, as he never figured. I didn’t think beating Boric was up to much, but in fairness, that horse ran very very well in The Rehearsal yesterday. I still think it was a harsh rise though, and though I may have been a tad harsh on him, the trainer does appear to have more obvious ones. 33’s

Waiting Patiently – Potential superstar, and the best horse in the race, I have no doubt at that. He’s a graded horse in waiting, and has returned from injury this year in fine heart. Not one to play Ante-Post though, as he’ll need it soft underfoot, and also holds an entry in The John Durkan. Massive chance off of 156 if he comes here. 10’s

Willie Boy – Probably needed to win at Newbury on Friday, to take his chance here. Seemed to bottom out very quickly there, but beforehand, he had shaped as if he had more to come. Not one to give up on at all, but both trainer and owner have plenty of other options here. 25’s

As can be expected then, with a race of this nature, it’s very difficult to get a handle on, a couple of weeks out, and probably makes sense to wait until the going becomes clearer. Certainly at the prices, there’s nothing screaming at me to rush out and bet, and I’m very happy to hold fire for now.

The class horse is Waiting Patiently, with Clan Des Obeaux, and Go Conquer, not too far behind him. They have to be given massive respect if they line up, while I’m more than happy to give Foxtail Hill & Ballyalton another chance, though Splash of Ginge, who beat them last time, is weighted to do the double.

If I was having an early go though it would be on Cepage, and On Tour, both at 16’s. Cepage is the horse I had in mind for this, and On Tour really impressed me yesterday, but happy to hold fire for now.

GL