Welsh National 2017

Very strong looking entry this year, with plenty who could go here with realistic chances. As usual, races like The Ladbroke Trophy, could provide plenty of clues.

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/12/chepstow/2017-12-27/688626

American is the first horse who’ll put his credentials on the line at Newbury, and given what he showed us last year, and his preference for softer going, there’s every chance he’ll get conditions to suit here. If, as expected, he runs well at Newbury, he’ll have to fulfil all his promise, as he’ll likely be lumping a big weight here. Big chance nonetheless at 14’s. His stablemate, Wotzizname is another going the right way, and although he’s got to step up a fair bit, I was quite taken by him at Exeter, and he’s one to keep an eye on this year. American looks the stables main hope though, and Newbury should tell us more.

Talking of Newbury, the one shock absence from that race when the entries came out, was that of Rock The Kasbah. Fresh from his win at Chepstow, he was many peoples idea of the winner of The Ladbroke, but it just might be that his form round here will see this marathon as the ideal target, and he must be considered a massive danger, and the 14’s looks decent. I’m a huge fan of his stablemate, Three Faces West, and though The Becher is surely the short term plan, if things don’t go his way there, then that would bring him right into this.

In the same ownership as Three Faces West, is the Fergal O’Brien trained, Viva Steve. Has promised to deliver in something like this, and there wasn’t that much wrong with his run in The Kerry National. Considering the form the yard is in, and the fact he’s normally gambled anyway, then I suggest that anyone who likes him, should snaffle that 25’s just now, as that price looks wrong. Stablemate Chase The Spud was a tidy winner at Haydock today, but the trainer didn’t seem keen, and I’m not convinced that this will be what his stablemate Perfect Candidate requires either.

Haydock also seen Nigel Twiston-Davies in the money with Bristol De Mai, and Cogry, who looks better than ever, could be his key to more success here. I think he’s another who might just surprise in The Ladbroke, but if things don’t go to plan there, then he’ll remain on a nice mark for this, and with the form he’s been in since his jumping issues, he has to be shortlist material at 20’s. That’s a great price.

Vyta Du Roc could head here in the Bristol De Mai colours, and although I’d prefer his chances at Newbury, wherever he heads, he looks weighted to run well. Not the only one from the Henderson yard either, and he also has

Sugar Baron
Beware the Bear
Lessons In Milan

entered, and I think that Bear looks the stable pick at this stage.

Venetia Williams landed this a couple of years back, and the evergreen Houblon Des Obeaux looks a big price at 20’s, certainly considering his recent form, and his stablemate, former winner, Emperors Choice, is also in there. Not much recent form for him, but I’m not brave enough to write him off.

Michael Scudamore also landed this, and he could be represented by Mysteree, and recent Cheltenham winner, Kingswell Theatre. This would represent a different kind of test for Kingswell, but he’s entitled to take his chance, that was a fine win, and he showed a great attitude. He’ll need it here. After his Eider win, I just couldn’t have Mysteree for The Midland National, but he fair dug it out, and once a horse has shown the ability to land two marathons like those, then it’s impossible to be negative about him here. He must have some sort of a chance, and 25’s looks generous. Streets of Promise could also represent them, and he has bits and pieces of form.

Kerry Lee, who landed this with Mountainous, has a few entered, and her Bishops Road is bound to be popular. Not done anything of note for a while now, but down to his last winning mark, and will get conditions to suit here. I’ve a soft spot for Alfie Spinner, and I’ll probably continue to say he has place claims until they retire him. She could also be represented by Russe Blanc, and Goodtoknow, and on their best days, could figure here. Russe Blanc unseated today, but certainly wasn’t beaten at the time, and he really caught the eye at Carlisle. Back to his last winning mark, when he won The Classic Chase, he’s one of the best priced outsiders at 33’s. Goodtoknow’s best piece of form is chasing home One For Arthur in this years Classic Chase, but so far hasn’t shown any signs of repeating it.

That brings us to Colin Tizzard, last years winning trainer, and he has plenty entered here, namely…..

Robinsfirth
Royal Vacation
Theatre Guide
Bally Longford
Buckhorn Timothy

I think that Buckhorn Timothy has plenty of appeal here, and he’s a decent price, but assuming he runs well at Newbury, I think that Royal Vacation could be his #1, and he looks too big at 25’s. I love Theatre Guide, but I’ll wait on him for the spring.

For the Nicholls yard, Vicente would be the star name, but I’m not sure this is what he needs en-route to Aintree, where he also has The Becher as a potential target, and the yard might just have a dark one in Southfield Theatre, who remains lightly raced, and well treated. Silsol flopped today, but I don’t know, I can’t crab him for this, and todays run was off a long lay off, and this just might suit him. Binge Drinker looks unexposed, but he must step up.

Ireland went close in this last year, with Raz De Maree, and he’s back from more, but although he doesn’t seem in the best of form, has he been laid out for this? The same could be said for Baie Des Iles, who was fifth last year, and though he’s higher in the weights for remaining in form, he’s very hard to be negative about. I’d be very interested in Logical Song, if he came here in half the form that he was in when he ran away with The Cork National, while Mala Beach looks a serious player in tomorrows Troytown. The one I do like though, and no surprise to those familiar with my waffle, is Folsom Blue. Impressive winner over hurdles last time, and we get to see him over timber tomorrow, along with Baie Des Isles. Folsom is impossible to predict, and he could easily flop here, but he’s more than paid his way for me in the past (as well as a few reverses), and although not strictly my #1 here, there is no way I’m letting him go unbacked here at 33’s.

Plenty of others to note…..

Ask The Weatherman came from the point to point field with a big reputation, and although to win this, he’d have been entitled to be closer in the Foxhunter at Cheltenham, he’s still won on his other 2 races under rules, and he looks to have a fair bit of potential. 16’s is maybe a bit skinny on overall achievements, but I still like him.

Rebecca Curtis is having a hard time of it of late, but O’Faolains Boy is well treated, and after a terrible return from injury last year, he ran well for a long way in The National, and the “PU” doesn’t do him credit, while he wasn’t that bad at Punchestown, and I’m not that surprised he’s as low as 25’s, while at the same time, conditions could be perfect for her former charge, Bob Ford, who is big at that price of 25’s.

Unlike Curtis, Anthony Honeyball is doing well, and he’s fresh from winning The Southern National with Cresswell Breeze, who wouldn’t be disgraced here, but it’s his stablemate who interests me here, Regal Encore. Ran a blinder in The National, won The Sodexo Silver Cup, and ran a stormer at Punchestown in the last year and a half, and although there’s a good few pulled ups in amongst that form, if anyone can tell me why he’s 50’s, I’d like to know. I’ve bet him for The Becher as well. Yard in form, JP’s only entry (in both races), he’s very much getting a few quid of mine on him.

That’s enough for now, and no time to go over the 48 Evan Williams entries, as I did this preview earlier on, and lost every bloody word of it, when the site crashed……..there’s a few hours of my life I’m not getting back, and one of those occasions where I invented some new swear words.

Loads who haven’t been mentioned yet, but of those who have, then

Cogry
Rock The Kasbah
Russe Blanc
Ask The Weatherman
and
Baie Des Isles

could all have been bet in another year, but for now, my money is down, and I’m stuck with this pair.

Folsom Blue EW 33’s
Regal Encore EW 50’s

GL