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I know you’re all going to roll your eyes as I start a thread in this section. I’ve tried and failed to keep one going in the past but hopefully I can get into some kind of routine this time around!
Committing my thoughts to paper (or typing them up) always improved my recall when I was revising for tests as a kid and I’ve found similar value in doing it with racing. ‘Horse memory’ is a big time-saver when I’m doing formscan.
In my day-to-day, I usually look at one meeting in microscopic detail. ‘My’ meetings are generally the low-grade ones (not complaining, I’m a dirty basement kid!) but that’s not always the case. My approach used to be something like 50% visuals and 50% collateral form but now I’m multifaceted. Give me all the replays, the speed figures, the formbook, market trends, pedigrees and everything else and after about five hours I might have a couple of bets!
I’m not sure exactly how I’m going to play this thread. I’m not going to post my 100% books and think level stakes profit or GT-style points staked might be too much hassle when I’ll often wait and take a price 16 hours after I make the post. I’m not someone who takes a price and then closes my eyes until racetime so I don’t think that’ll work. We’ll see. General thoughts, suggestions and selections for now.
08/08/17 – Nottingham
Currently good-to-soft. Steady rain due to arrive in the early hours and continue all afternoon. Presumably SOFT or worse by racetime. Slight bias towards high numbers in sprints.
5.05 – 6f 2yo Maiden Auction
Only a micro stakes race at best. Market vibes key.
Of the newcomers, MJ’s Book Of Dreams looks most interesting with stacks of first time out winners all over the pedigree. In fact, most of the family fall apart after the first start so this is probably the time to catch him. The market hasn’t missed it and I won’t be playing at 3/1.
I will take the 20/1 now for a tiny e/w on Dark Freedom though. Charlie Hills is going nicely right now and this one has the racecourse experience edge after showing a glimmer in a much deeper race at Newmarket last time. A handful of the single-figures newcomers are bound to be dead in the market tomorrow so I doubt we’ll see any more than 20s available tomorrow.
5.35 – 1m 1/2f Nursery
One of the first mile nurseries of the season. Naturally, a moody race stacked with likely improvers, with those Famous Name colts all likely to step it up at this trip on soft ground.
The improving Grimeford Lane is by far the most interesting horse in the race but again has not been missed by the market overnight. Hopefully something else gets nibbled in the morning – I’d take 7/2 in a vacuum but might go in at shorter if nothing else attracts serious money.
6.05 – 1m 2f Maiden
I’ll be VERY interested to see the speed figures on these tomorrow. On the face of it, Mafaaheem looks an awful price at 1/2 and I’ll be mashing the lay button. I’m not convinced that Owen Burrows knows what he’s doing, the horse has never tried soft ground AND he’s not that far clear (if at all clear) on form anyway.
Sketchbook Venue looks every bit as interesting at a bigger price and actually ran to a similar rating when very green on debut. SV will be the main bet in opposition. Ian Williams has a knack of finding choicely-bred horses (both codes) on the cheap and immediately winning with them, so I might be persuaded to dabble each-way on ex-Godolphin Casemates Square if the money comes.
6.35 – 6f Handicap
I made Curious Fox favourite here so I’ll get on now for a token bet at 4.6 for the sake of making sure I’m on. Will top-up tomorrow for full stakes if bigger available. Jule In The Crown became disappointing for Channon and no guarantees that she’ll repeat the trick second time up for Hannon. Again will be interesting to see the speed figs tomorrow but it looked like JITC took a long time to get organised last time. Curious Fox was much more impressive in her own recent win and looks like a better fit for the track.
7.05 – 6f Handicap
Can’t imagine there will be a mad stampede to get the 15/8 Alfonso Manana here. The horse is a known scoundrel who needs everything to drop just right. I much prefer the in-form and reliable class-dropper Sheepscar Lad. The rest are either deadwood or have major soft ground concerns.
7.35 – 1m 2f Handicap
Another favourite I’m keen to oppose. Jumira Prince tries another kind of headgear and looks an unlikely soft ground performer as a typically scuttly son of Exceed And Excel. Wasm made a big impression on me last time, is proven on soft ground and looks like a great bet at 4/1. Mostly exposed or out of form horses among the rest.
8.05 – 1m 2f 3yos Handicap
I think there’s a theme developing here. In a race with very little depth, recent easy winner Mr C is a decent enough favourite but again he needs to prove himself on a completely different surface.
Ed Walker is a trainer I like and his Masterfilly went into my low-grade notebook last time. Back from 4 months off (previously finished distressed when well-backed 7/2 fav), she ran into trouble at a key stage before finishing off quite stoutly for third. Admittedly she was beaten 11 lengths by the front pair but both first and second have done their part for the form. The Mastercraftsman filly will definitely strip fitter and has the pedigree to thrive on soft ground. A belting bet at 6/1 imo.
Good luck with it; I always think it’s a good idea to put your idea/thoughts down on paper. I actually had a few winners at Nottingham the other week [unheard of for me] so I’ll have a look at the card.
Best of luck Moe. Let me know what you go for.
The speed figures are not really on my side with the “let’s get Mafaaheem beat” project, so I’ll tread softly there.
Good luck with the thread Soldier
Had a look at the card myself, but couldn’t dig anything out myself.
Well, the steamers seem to be Zoolander, Dealers Choice, Lanjano and Upended; I’ve had ew’s on Amazing somethingorother and Upended [wasn’t having any bets today]. Missed the first race.
Tough day at Nottingham for me there. My only winner was a tiny go on Book Of Dreams (one to lay next time) before the off. Hit more than 5/1 on Betfair, which seemed a bit crazy for one so likely to shine first time out. Small loss on the day overall.
Wasm, Sheepscar Lad, Curious Fox and Masterfilly were all rancid but the conditions were appalling and I guess you can forgive any horse in that kind of arena.
Lessons learnt:
1. Need to keep telling myself that my best ROI comes with bets at 9/2 or bigger. Must stop fiddling around at shorter prices if I don’t have full conviction.
2. Must stick with fully proven heavy ground warriors when conditions get as desperate as that. Young/inexperienced horses not to be trusted.
3. Famous Name progeny on soft/heavy could become a really good angle
Well, the steamers seem to be Zoolander, Dealers Choice, Lanjano and Upended; I’ve had ew’s on Amazing somethingorother and Upended [wasn’t having any bets today]. Missed the first race.
Go steady with those steamers, Moe. Timeform tipped Lanjano in the morning, hence the price crash – but they only made it a bet at 6/1 or bigger. Genuine money for the others I’d say but it’s hard to win long term if you’re not getting on until the price has gone.
It’s usually interesting if the money comes in just as the race is about to start [especially in bumpers]. It keeps me out of mischief on days when I can just hang around the computer, though! Must have been dire at Nottingham tonight; it’s been the sort of rain here in the East Midlands that seeps into your soul, and it’s been non stop all day. Crazy when I think that we were there a couple of weeks ago basking in sunshine.
It’s Kempton for me tomorrow. I have fewer views on this card.
6.05 – 1m C6 Handicap
Bleugh. You’re a better punter than me if you can see a knockout bet here. If I play at all, I’ll probably end up following in on the highly-tried Dream Start if any serious money comes. Can’t see much pace in the race so wouldn’t want to be on the wide draws or the hold-up horses.
6.35 – 1m Maiden
Total guess-up. No great speed figure angles at the prices.
7.05 – 7f 2yo Novice Stakes
Not a betting race, but one to keep for the videos. Lots of well-bred newcomers, especially the two Gosden ones.
7.35 – 1m 4f Fillies’ Maiden
No bets. Should be a simple enough task for the jolly. Hugh Taylor tipped Lady Macha last time out so interesting to see if he keeps the faith.
8.05 – 7f C5 Handicap
Interesting little race, quite a few who might be better than their marks. Tobrave and Diable D’Or a couple of pickouts for me. Will play Tobrave if any good market vibes and definitely giving the luckless Diable D’Or at least an e/w go, probably a bit win-only too.
8.35 – 1m 4f C4 Handicap
Already a bit worried that I’ll lose my PP account over this. I did a 100% book for this race with Arab Moon 5/2 so I sniped their rickety 15/2 as soon as they went up. Will probably leave it at that, hope it wins and hope Paddy and friends show me some mercy.
9.05 – 2m C4 Handicap
Just my kind of race. I love these staying handicaps. Despite shooting up the weights, the figures say Dominating is going to be tough to beat. I’ll probably leave it alone unless it drifts. MJ horses often do and there are plenty of other ones who might get backed and force the price out. No rush.
Normandie Attack has caught the eye rattling home over shorter trips a couple of times and the numbers suggest he doesn’t have much to find with these. The visor goes on (good move) and he’ll be my first dart e/w.
It’s usually interesting if the money comes in just as the race is about to start [especially in bumpers]. It keeps me out of mischief on days when I can just hang around the computer, though! Must have been dire at Nottingham tonight; it’s been the sort of rain here in the East Midlands that seeps into your soul, and it’s been non stop all day. Crazy when I think that we were there a couple of weeks ago basking in sunshine.
Good point, there are certain yards especially canny with these ultra-late smash-ups. Ian Williams and Evan Williams especially.
I’m now also on Tobrave at 5/1 and Diable D’Or e/w at 20/1.
Still waiting to see if Dream Start of Normandie Attack get nibbled.
Hugh Taylor tipped Sheikspear (chancing the wide draw) and Timeform put up Casado on this card.
It breaks my heart when Ian Williams has a big priced winner; he’s come to a couple of talks that we’ve been to over the years and he’s so canny.
It breaks my heart when Ian Williams has a big priced winner; he’s come to a couple of talks that we’ve been to over the years and he’s so canny.
Did you see him with Psychedelic Rock at Worcester a few weeks ago?
Great training and A* execution of the gamble. Nicely bred horse first time out for the yard after showing barely anything for a small trainer in Ireland.
20/1 overnight, small nibbles during the day but no bets of note laid at our end. 8/1 an hour before the race, 6/1 on the show, smashed up on Betfair in the last 10 minutes and wins at a tight 9/4.
That really is genius – he got the absolute maximum amount of money on the horse and got the result.
That was more like it, a solid winning day thanks to Arab Moon. Not a good result for the dear old firm though!
The market told the story with Dream Start and Normandie Attack and I left them alone.
Lots of eyecatchers. Verandah with a slick debut win, Tobrave with a huge comeback run despite market weakness (one for next time) and Arab Dawn going into all the notebooks.
Another winner for Hughie Taylor too – the man is a machine.
I’m in the dark with no speed figures until the morning for tomorrow’s Newcastle card.
5.50 – 1m 2f C6 Handicap
I could see the case for Pindaric in such a bad race if any money came but it’s hard work for hold-up horses at Newcastle and his usual slow start will put him in behind the 8ball. Lozah more solid than many but not a price to tempt. I doubt I’ll be betting on this race.
6.20 – 1m 4f C5 Handicap
Switch to AW not the obvious move for Waiting For Richie and this trip is a bare minimum for New Society. Satish also a known dodgepot. Hayward Field comes from a small yard but his recent 80/1 win was anything but a fluke given that he rustled up Sixties Groove and Lord Yeats last year.
I’ll take the 9/2 now and will probably add Major Rowan e/w in the morning. Major Rowan has a very solid record on AW (probably deserves his split mark actually) and has tumbled way down the weights. 20/1 already more than fair with so many iffy ones at the top of the market.
6.55 – 7f Fillies’ Nursery
Would love to look at the speed figs, especially with Kylie Rules. Can’t see myself playing unless she has done a good time.
7.25 – 6f 2yo Maiden
Comparing 2yo sprint form between surfaces and distances is not really my bad. Your guess as good as mine. Figs will hopefully give some assistance.
8.00 – 7f C5 Handicap
Angel’s Acclaim more interesting than most but it’s a bit of a crapshoot and I can’t see myself playing.
8.30 – 6f C6 Handicap
Mostly unreliable low-grade sprint handicappers. Not for me.
9.00 – 5f C5 Handicap
Indian Raj represents that red hot African Friend form and is related to AW legend Royal Birth. I expect to find he’s the boss on the speed ratings against these exposed handicappers. I’m already chipping away at 7/2 on Betfair.
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