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Well done with Mixboy. He was too short for me today, even at the 11-4, but he’s a definite notebook horse of mine this year. Been keeping tabs on him ever since The Close Bros Novices, where he seemed to empty a couple of furlongs out, after going very very well. Was hoping, at the time, to see him get an entry for The BetVictor, but in hindsight, the minimum trip may just be what he wants.
Don’t laugh, but I really like him for The Grand Annual, and funnily enough, he beat a former winner of that race today (albeit on the downgrade). He’s trained a couple of miles up the road from me, and if he gets an entry, I might have a wee go on him. Enough to buy him a box of carrots if he wins.
PS well done Chris with your 16-1 shot, smasher that.
Fair day today, Able Jack the hero of course. Absoultely smashed off the boards late in the day. Also ended up backing Influent mid-morning (not on the thread I know, aftertiming scum etc) to juice things up.
I’m on Kempton tomorrow and haven’t even started looking at it yet, so this could be another late night! I’ve been off all day playing pool and reading The Letters of Kingsley Amis.
Just noticed your message VTC. I guess beating Solar Impulse isn’t worth much on paper but I think Mixboy was better than the result by a fair bit yesterday. Kept jumping left and losing ground in the air – somewhere like Doncaster, Aintree or (yep) Cheltenham would be much more up his street IMO. More to come.
Kempton cavalcade…
5.45 – 6f C6 3yo HandicapUntil the new 2yos appear, I’ll think of these races as nurseries. I won’t get to see the speed figures until the morning, which will make this harder right now. No great view at the prices here, market should tell the story. Inuk is the solid one with his two wins (including a seller last time) quite strong in the context of this race, with his streetwise nature and strong sectionals LTO both plus points. Loses Nicola Currie’s valuable 7lbs and switches to Shane Kelly here though. Summer Thunder, Be Mindful and Harvest Day all potentially interesting but you’d want to see a market steer. No bets for me here.
6.15 – 6f C6 Handicap
Extremely modest stuff. With the 7/2f ridden by Gemma Tutty, I feel like there must be a bet in there. New Rich is a very hard horse to win with as well. Dalness Express ran quite well last time but his overall profile isn’t convincing. I think the one to get on is probably Warba, who has plenty of decent course form and is well-drawn to attack in box 3 under the excellent Sean Levey. Bang solid for a chunky e/w bet at 7/1.
6.45 – 6f C6 Handicap
The most interesting horse in the race is Pulsating but this one is stuck out in the widest stall. Still, with the cutaway you can win from anywhere at Kempton and Eddie Greatrex does ride this course very well. Pulsating is 10/3 on the exchange right now so there’s every chance you’ll be able to beat the current 11/4 in the morning. Will probably be worth chancing and hoping for the splits. General Gerrard doesn’t have much form so far but is related to some decent AW performers and may be worth an e/w speculation from a good draw.
7.15 – 1m 4f Novice Stakes
Impossible to be betting in a race like this. Night Of Glory and Bardd are both quirky, with Night Of Glory’s presence in a fiddly little conditions race underlining that he is dreadfully handicapped on 92. Very interesting to see what the market thinks of Firmage Burg, who might be the answer as the fresh line of form, but equally may be having a quiet spin here in advance of a hurdling campaign. Leave the race WELL alone IMO.
7.45 – 1m 4f C5 Handicap
In contrast, this probably does have to be a betting race. Flight Of Fantasy is a nice consistent horse but was seen to maximum effect last time. I’ll be dutching Erinyes for AW maestro Archie Watson, who shaped nicely on return from a break last time and remains with unfinished business on his current mark AND Top Beak, who has been bubbling under nicely for his current yard and might well find this race falling nicely into his lap with a decent pace and the Kempton cutaway to suit.
8.15 – 6f C4 HandicapGood race but the market seems to have them about right, at least until the real vibes come out in the wash. Sparkalot looked like making up into a very smart performer when last seen and would probably be too good for these if ready to roll after a break. If not, Clear Water (Hard Spun progeny at Kempton angle) and Eljaddaaf (last year’s winner, shaping well since comebacK) probably the two to focus on if not. Probably won’t be betting unless something crazy happens.
8.45 – 1m C5 Handicap
Very competitive. Likely to be strong form for the grade. Big Bad Lol was an all-rates smash when winning last time and must be the starting point, but there are four or five others who look like they may be ahead of their marks. Happy to sit on my hands and watch without betting.
Nothing too crazy yesterday. Pulsating a nice winner and looks like one to follow with an astonishing come-from-behind win.
Four losers though, so about a point behind on the day. Beat the SP in every case so can’t really feel bad. I haven’t had a single bet on Saturday’s racing – have been struggling with my concentration lately and just couldn’t get my head around anything. I’ll try to write a post on it tomorrow.
I’m back in the game. I had a couple of days off (Sunday and Monday) and took it very easy indeed. I actually slept for about five extra hours during the day today so there must have been plenty of residual tiredness. It’s Taunton for me tomorrow – post to follow. I believe this card features the first UK hunter chase of the season.
12.35 – 2m C5 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
A rousing start with a race I’d consider my ‘bread and butter’ – a big field of low-grade mares. I like what I see from the early market. They’ve put Chilli Romance in as fav and she does set some sort of standard on recent form, but I don’t think she has much in hand and always fancy my chances in opposing the rider. Kalarika could be anything on first handicap start for the Tizzards given the useful bumper form. Still, I think Kohuma must be the play at 9/1. Bobby Walford is going well, she was a big eyecatcher on comeback (also suggesting she’ll handle soft ground) and James Bowen is a positive booking. Tentative bet at the prices.
1.05 – 3m Maiden Hurdle
As I See It Looks like a terrible fav – 2nd in a fairly poor race last time. I’d suggest that Golden Sunrise deserves to be fav, but there is a better bet at a bigger price in the shape of Vodka All The Way. Philip Hobbs is dragging his yard back to form after a virus, which should help this horse to deliver on his rather smart bumper form. This one will love the step-up to 3m and, while you’re taking a small chance on their intentions on the day, it’s hard to Richard Johnson plugging one out the back. Worth a go.
1.35 – 2m 3f Novices’ Hurdle
Demon D’Aunou was very weak in the betting prior to his solid run against hot prospect If The Cap Fits last time and has been a NR (unsuitable ground) on soft since. Might well be weak in the market again here. The early prices look right with King Of Realms justifiably short. Probably will be a solid one with Cap St Vincent and Samburu Sajaa not making great appeal despite their powerful yards.
2.10 – 2m 7f C3 Handicap Chase
A good race and a massive chance for Timeforwest, who was an all-rates smash and going quite well when brought down in a good mares’ race at Cheltenham last time. With fav Relentless Dreamer ideally suited by better ground and plenty of exposed types in here, I think you have to go in again on the good mare. Rolling Dylan most feared.
2.45 – 2m 3f C3 Handicap Hurdle
Another good race. Interesting to see Bandsman entered here – doesn’t want soft ground and a likely type to revive on a dangerous mark in the spring. One to keep an eye on for sure. This is a trappy contest, especially given that it’s hard to know what to expect from Canelie and Rejaah. I feel like Padleyourowncanoe could be vulnerable now hiked in the weights.
Here’s Herbie was all set to win when falling at Exeter last week and remains well-treated on old form but I feel Fidux is the solid option. He remains open to improvement granted a positive ride (out of his ground last time) and his form with Maria’s Benefit (staying-on 2nd when unlucky UR at the last) looks pretty hot right now. I’ll like my chances if Kevin Dowling pings out in the first three or four.
3.20 – 2m 7f Hunters ChaseA bettable hunter. The blinkers are off Opening Batsman (now runs with a tube I hear) which suggests they’re worried about him getting home in the ground. He is a Racing Post Chase winner but generally wants a very sharp slowly-run race at the trip on decent ground. He is opposable, likewise Unioniste, who went a bit sour last season and isn’t the strong-travelling sort that suits David Maxwell best. If he comes off the bridle early, it could be curtains.
So, who is going to be the hero? Bear’s Affair is the obvious one although he doesn’t get his ideal ground here. I think our potential star is Premier Portrait, who loves heavy ground (beat Black Thunder at Kelso last year) and is fit from a win between the flags. Already some movement but still fair at 8/1.
3.50 – 2m Bumper
No opinion. Mick Maestro looked smart on debut but Towcester bumper form isn’t usually great as a rule of thumb. See what the market makes of the newcomers.
Hi, LS, just whizzed through the card before reading your post.
12.35 Agree on Kohuma.
1.05 As I See It I think the Samuel Jackson form is strong, still a bit worried re Fry’s stableform though.
1.35 Not convinced by the market principals so will forgive Cap St Vincent a poor NHF run, must be loads better than that for top stable at 12/1.
2.10 Not convinced by various yards’ form so a pot shot, win or bust, on Moss On The Mill at 18/1, Wicked Willy the danger.
2.45 Tried hard to find an alternative to Fidux based on possible weakness of last season’s juvenile form but can’t.
3.20 Fry stableform again but tube and drop in class might help Opening Batsman, is better than Bear’s Affair – they have two best riders, won’t tip a Maxwell ridden horse despite Sandown.
3.50 Bumpers – don’t bother with them!And a great finish from you with Premier Portrait, LS, more than can be said for Maxwell on Unioniste! All good fun. As I See It was the second best horse in the 1.05 but beaten by taking on another Roger Mitford-Slade outsider – he has swiftly established himself as the best trainer in the country!! Seriously, though, I read somewhere there had been initiatives to bolster British pointing and it appears to be stronger judged by RMS’s two, Darcy Ward and yesterday’s Fontwell winner. Cap St Vincent has bought himself a one-way ticket to Chris Gordon’s! Moss On The Mill led the field a merry dance but left his partner at the first, Wicked Willy was indeed the safer option. Last season’s juvenile form really is **** :)
Thanks GM. 7/1 and 10/1 winners (took bigger) made for a very good day.
Poor old Maxwell, actually think he did gave Unioniste the best ride he possibly could from a tactical point of view, but he is always going to look a bit powderpuff in a finish. I know he mostly rides reliable old hands but horses do seem to jump well for him.
Roger Mitford-Slade – what a few weeks for him. Is English PTP form that strong or are these horses just improving a lot for him this year?
I thought Canelie was very impressive in the handicap hurdle – totally dead in the market and covered a lot of ground out wide, could follow-up. Also though Samburu Shujaa was hugely eyecatching earlier on the card, looks like one who’ll win races at 3m.
Quite disappointed with the run of Fidux, although perhaps that will turn into a strong piece of form.
Agreed re Canelie and Samburu Shujaa, LS. I think English PTP form is stronger because it’s not just RMS – Darcy Ward tied in with yesterday’s Fontwell winner from a point. Roger Mitford-Slade and Lucy is developing into the story of the season.
I’m feeling my oats a little bit after today but my Ludlow card tomorrow doesn’t look anywhere near as bettable. Might dig out two or three.
12.50 – 2m Maiden Hurdle
The prices look right here. Zalvados has consistently run to a good level over hurdles and, unless Sean O’Casey takes well to timber, you’d expect him to get the job done. Can’t suggest any bet.
1.20 – 2m Maiden Hurdle
A slightly deeper race. I must admit to burgling the early 2/1 about Monbeg Oscar, who is the standout on form and speed figures and should be much happier going back down to this trip. Many of the others hold some sort of interest as handicap prospects, but I suppose Shall We Go Now (SP’d short in in two bumpers) is the main danger.
1.55 – 2m 4f C4 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
Perhaps not the strongest race of its type but still an interesting contest. With the fragile Dark Mahler installed as favourite for the flaky Lavelle yard, it feels like a betting race. He might be too good but notably didn’t record a speed figure for his latest win and it’s a leap of faith to trust a delicate Lavelle horse off a short break, especially at 9/4. I can see the case for Wandrin Star after his quietly eyecatching run last time and a more forceful ride may help…but it’s all in the price at 3/1.
I won’t be betting Secret Door on chasing debut but I think he has many of the right assets for Ludlow, with his strong-travelling style and ability to sit prominently sure to help him out around here. Still, he has been finishing weakly lately, needs to show himself a natural chaser and probably needs to improve from his current mark. I don’t hate Megabucks and Farm The Rock at the prices but I’ve be having a small bet on Old Salt at 9/1. Evan Williams does especially well at Ludlow and his runner has course form with his bumper win. He now has two bits of chasing experience in the bank and jumped much better last time under a very considerate (read: not-off) ride. Back at Evan’s favourite track, I expect he’ll be ridden more positively this time.
2.25 – 3m Amateur Riders’ Handicap HurdleI love betting on low-grade racing but I think I’ve met my match here. You’ve got a well-handicapped fav who revived and dotted up last time, a horse on a hat-trick stepping-up a full mile in trip, a possible David Pipe plot all sorts of other possible shenanigans. One of the most inexperienced riders in the race (Miss Ceris Biddle) has the ride on one of the leading ‘form’ players Galactic Power to muddy the waters even more. I highly doubt I’ll bet on this race but, if I’m in the mood, I might throw some pennies at Mr Mulliver at a big price. Paul Henderson is an excellent trainer and his horses have been improving massively from first outing to second this season.
3.00 – 3m 1f C4 Handicap Chase
The only race on the card I didn’t look into in detail this afternoon. This is trappy. Most of them have a question to answer on current form. Tb Broke Her has done well for this yard and is one of very few in good form, but is essentially a modest mare and perhaps a little way out of her pay grade here. Again, it’s up in the air as to whether I bet at all, but I might end up taking a chance on Freddies Portrait if I see double figures in the morning. I have always thought 3m on a sharp right-handed track would be his ideal conditions, but obviously it is a gamble given his two woeful runs this season, which are especially worrying given the hot form of Donald McCain in recent months.
3.35 – 2m 5f C4 Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Prices look pretty solid here with The Last Bar (jockey upgrade) and Dahills Hill probably the two interesting ones. Don’t feel strongly enough to suggest a bet.
4.05 – 2m Fillies’ Juvenile Hurdle
You wouldn’t expect these prices to change much either with Hillcrest Fire likely to confirm form with Shees Lucky despite the weights turnaround. No bet.
All in all a difficult card with Old Salt my best bet, the price already gone (sorry guys!) on Monbeg Oscar and a rather sketchy guessbet on Freddies Portrait about the extent of it. Might look at Kempton and Lingers later on too.
Morning LS3
Low grade stuff at ludlow,just had the look at one race,the 1-55,limited novice handicap chase over 2m 4f.
Just the 9 nine runners,decent each way chance if we can get something to put in a clear round.Jumping will be key for these novices,the top one has the class,but first time up too risky for me.
Gone for HEY BILL here,8 yr old with a pointing background,just the one start over regulation fences at donny,deliberate over a few,mainly jumped soundly,and was not given a hard time up the straight.
Dropping back to his maiden hurdle distance win,hoping the forecast gd/sft will see him in a better light here,not that familiar with the yard,notice they had a level stakes profit of £69 on all runners last season.
The other negative,stable 0/19 at the track,around 19 win on the machine,and 4/1 to get in the three,been held up lately,just think he looks overpriced in a pretty ordinary affair.A question if I may….fairly recently joined,so not that familiar with posters,I assume you work for high street firm ?,just interested to hear what your thoughts are on this NRNB this early,plenty hype in one racing tabloid,Is that really the case from the Industry side?
Best of luck with yours today.
Once again I looked before reading yours then large parts of RP site went down and evidently it’s too foggy to see anything anyway, so only did the first.
12.50 Essentially agree. My take was that Zalvados hasn’t actually won over hurdles and Sean O’Casey could well beat the rest if improving about 30 on Flat form, handles cut, should stay, Appleby in okay form. So E/W at 33/1.
Good luck with Hey Bill, FlyersNap – certainly couldn’t put you off him.
Yeah, I work for one of the big high street firms. Have been in the job about a year now.
From our perspective, we think the NRMB craze is a bit mental right now. Now so many firms have gone NRMB, we actually look really good with loads of black type on Oddschecker. I think punters like to have options and we feel there must be plenty of value in our prices if you’re savvy. Many of the NRMB prices are absolutely rancid IMO and don’t set the pulse racing at all.
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