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Another frustrating night at Kempton with a many of the key horses I was looking to oppose just rattling through to win from behind. Six favs from seven races.
Lesson learnt: Kempton is a very fair track and the wide draw is much less of a neg than it would be at all of the other AW tracks.
Also, Rachel Candelora may be a good pundit but she must be a ropey punter. She made Dangerous Ends “an EVS chance”!
Quargent @ 5/2 at least undid some of the damage from Plant Pot Power, Sea Shack and Mach One.
I’m not working today and only looked at one race – 4.40 Beverley.
Cray (main fancy) and Royal Flag are the two I want to bet, although I want a bit more than 9/2 about Cray if I can find it. No rush with Royal Flag either, could easily get spoofed out a bit bigger.
Cray never touched a backable price but I did do a bit of dough on Royal Flag. Never mind.
Clairfontain today – hoping Neguev is missed by the UK firms in the Listed race. Bay Of Poets disappointing, Born To Be Alive perhaps out of his depth and I think Neguev’s form stacks up better than the other two frogs.
Just bet Neguev at 7/1 BOG, could easily SP bigger.
Added Cheval Blanche at 9/1 for tomorrow’s Grey Horse Handicap. Drop to 6f to suit, excuses for recent runs, jockey upgrade, early season form working out, ground maybe a bit quick for the jolly…
Go go go!
Added Crown Vallary for a good size bet in the 1.10 at Clair.
Looks like a NAP on the Juliet Capulet form.
Ei ei! I think that’s my first ever midweek French winner.
Looking to play Ultimate Avenue and Dakota Gold in the 2.45 Newmarket tomorrow for small bets, make them both a couple of rungs shorter than the embryonic market.
Two NRs and a headbob gubbage. FFS!
High Dream Milena the one for me in the Prix Morny today, hoping she can atone for her unlucky loss last time. Probably my last bet for a couple of weeks – going away on honeymoon.
Thanks guys, we had a great time travelling around Europe!
Breaking the shackles on my return with a couple of bets.
Success Days e/w for the Irish Champion @ 33/1 – race cutting up already, Churchill and Highland Reel could both be scuppered by soft ground and not much else in there. Feels like a rock solid bet on a guaranteed runner and soft ground warrior and could be getting 3 places in a 6 runner race!
Also backed Golden Wolf at 6.6 in the 5.00 Sandown. Bit of a speed figures bet but visual run-to-run progress quite attractive too.
Thanks grassy, really kind of you to say.
Had a minimum stakes go at Icespire in the 3.55 Sandown at about 4/1. Obvious risk attached but pace in the race to help. I was so impressed with the horse when I went to Discover Ascot Raceday – definitely has more ability than a rating of 85 if she puts it all together.
A couple of fairly near misses yesterday. Bit annoyed as I saw the case for both winners too – probably could have had a stake saver on Archetype at least. Good change of tactics with Mister Blue Sky too.
I’m on Chester duty today. Not much time to make a case for my horses but I’ve backed the following (some last night):
2.10 – Graceland 7/1 (min stake)
2.45 – Sharp Defence (last night)
3.20 – Powerallied (last night)
5.05 – Gabrial’s King 16/1 e/w
Congrats on the marriage LS3 and best of luck with the thread! I am Chelmsford born and bred (though live in Oxford these days) – we probably know each other……!! Anyway good luck today.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Thanks Joni. I’m from Bristol originally (the accent is a dead giveaway!) – moved to Essex for love.
Also going in for a tiny e/w on Supersymmetry at Chester. Feels like the fav is one to oppose (not the most nimble, track might not suit), the 2nd in has a penalty and the rest will be in the pace scramble.
Supersymmetry shaped well first time up and can be forgiven a poor run on soft ground since. This one could be a total non-trier (3rd run for mark?) but there’s real value in simply winning races for 2yo fillies. Richard Kingscote doesn’t ride but presumably he’s off to get the last flight to Turkey.
Anyway, 20/1 e/w, small stakes.
Small gains today thanks entirely to Powerallied. I was in the process of registering for SunBets to get their 20/1 yesterday but they changed the price. Had to settle for 11s elsewhere. 4/1 on my tissue! *aftertime alert*
A few of the others were a bit spewy in hindsight – probably best to wait to see some blue with something like Supersymmetry. Not sure I did enough pace analysis in the stayers race.
A decent day from a professional point of view as this was one of the better Saturday cards I’ve been trusted with so far. Took stands against Poet’s Society, Mayasah and Angel Gabrial.
Onwards to Brighton tomorrow…
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