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That may well be a lucrative stance to take,mental would be correct.
Be interesting to see how this pans out.
Cheers reply
Great stuff, FN. Sun is out, RP website working properly again. Not much fortune today, LS, but could get it all back on The Last Bar and Hillcrest Fire in the last two. The Last Bar looks good value at 7/1.
Skelton drifters always unnerve me, don’t really like my chances with The Last Bar at this point. Still hopeful for Ask Catkin though.
Even a blind squirrel……
Looks like he might want to go left handed in future,that maiden he won has thrown up a couple winners since,still novicey at a few,learned something new re this yard,worth noting looking ahead.
Try not to hijack your thread LS3
Thanks again for your thoughts.
Well at least someone here had a winner today Flyers! Keep them coming.
Was never going to be a big staking today but still a bit of a damp squib for me.
Newcastle for me tomorrow. Price dependent of course, but I feel like there could be a decent bet in the 4.05.
“Worth noting looking ahead”
About 4 minutes looking at the 3-35 result
Apologies GM34 missed your post….many thanks.
Well played Flyers mate, that was a smasher, and the quiet midweek action pays off for you again.
Alright then boys, back to the all-weather.
I try to be an all-rounder in racing. I genuinely enjoy watching everything: AW, flat turf, National Hunt, Irish, foreign racing etc. I just find it takes more effort to study all-weather – somehow the horses aren’t quite as familiar or memorable.
1.55 – 2m C5 Handicap
Old Gabrial’s Star starts life for his new yard here. He has been mopping up the claimers and low-grade handicaps on the fibresand but is usually best opposed given his quirks. Artful Rogue is obviously interesting as he has the pedigree to make an impact at this trip and the move from Randy Mandy to Keith Dalgleish is probably a positive one. Mr Snoozy has been around the block but has improved since last seen on the flat, winning two selling hurdles and a handicap hurdle. He has been found out from a mark of 116 under that code recently but might be able to translate his progression back to the flat. The others are badly out of form although I suppose Mambo Dancer would be the most likely reviver as he has often shaped like this trip would suit.
All in all, it’s not a great betting race as you’d be guessing about the impact of the new yard on Artful Rogue. Mr Snoozy probably the solid one if you’re really jonesing to back something.
2.25 – 1m 4f C6 Amateur Riders’ Handicap
Jockey bookings are always key in these races, although Simon ‘Stone Cold Nuts’ Walker is not involved this time. Henpecked has one of the best riders (James King) and has been given a chance by the handicapper after running out of his paygrade the last twice – this is quite a significant drop in class for him. She was given a very poor ride when second at this course a few starts ago and does have course form of 62243226 in races below C4 level. Something Brewing is extremely difficult to assess on British AW debut having shown zero on flat turf before picking up a juvenile hurdle. Esspeegee is on a four-timer (rare for a horse in this grade) but has only just been scraping home, suggesting the run will come to an end sooner or later. His rider Miss J Cooley has ridden a good amount of winners for trainer Alan Bailey. Leonard Thomas is a bit of a funny one for Rebecca Menzies and was gambled-on last time, though it’s hard to know what to expect.
Speed figures and visual impressions suggest it’s time to take Esspeegee on, but who is the bet? I suppose Henpecked is a rock solid e/w chisel and is the token suggestion. Watch the market with Something Brewing and add him to the team if things look positive.
3.00 – 1m 4f C5 HandicapThe market seems pretty good here with the rock solid fav already smashed up. Theglasgowwarrior was well-backed last time and overcame the handicap of being held-up in a slowly-run race to beat a two-time subsequent winner. He’ll take some stopping if in the same form. Old Itlaaq perhaps an e/w option but I’ll probably sit it out. Interesting if there are any market nibbles for the excellent Paul Midgely’s Pegi Browne.
3.35 – 1m 2f Novice Stakes
Far too tough for me. Timeform are all over Battle Lines (eyecatching visually and on sectionals at Kempton last time) but he hasn’t been missed. The Godolphin pair could improve, especially Flag Festival who is a gelded son of Blue Bunting. There is a fairly well-bred Botti newcomer thrown in to the mix too. No bets.
4.05 – 7f C3 3yo Handicap
I had a good look at this race this afternoon. I’m already on Joe’s Spirit at 365’s 13/8. I make him 5/4, which is the current general price. He is progressive with some big figures and ran a stormer when held up way too far out of his ground against the Melbourne 10’s little rocket Rusper last time. Back at this trip and fitter for the run, he’ll take some stopping.
I’m a bit bigger about Jellmood (quirky, form not too hot) and think Windsor Cross and Blue Harmony are roughly the right price (exposed but fairly consistent). I’ll probably save on Kikini Bamalaam, whose turf sectionals aren’t too shabby and looks far too big at 25/1. I think you can forgive the last couple of runs fairly easily – first was after 10 weeks off, then probably didn’t handle the fibresand last time. I think something like 12/1 or 14/1 would be more realistic.
4.35 – 5f C3 Handicap
Quite a good little sprint. Honestly, I find it’s very rare that I’ll price up a race myself and see that my prices fit ALMOST PERFECTLY with the initial efforts of rival compilers. But that’s what happened here. 365 and PP/BF matched my line almost perfectly. With that in mind, I can’t suggest any bets at the current price and will probably just end up betting any of Compas Scoobie, Aleef and Memories Galore who drift during the day. There is no reason for any of them to underperform.
Aleef ran a huge figure in the win at Chelmsford two starts ago, sustaining a strong pace throughout and shaped well on first attempt on fibresand last time. Newcastle’s long straight 5f should be ideal. Compas Scoobie has started well for the very good Stuart Williams yard and has held his own admirably against superiors recently – should go well back down in slightly calmer waters. Memories Galore is a reliable performer and has some rock solid big-field turf form. We’ll see how the market plays out.
5.05 – 1m Novice Stakes
Interesting little race, haven’t looked at it yet and will watch the videos now. Native Appeal adds cheekpieces to his tonguetie, which is a little worrying, but he was value for extra against a 100-rated yardstick last time and sets a good standard. Three Weeks is also a promising AW 3yo and ran much better than the bare form in picking up from well off the pace to run down a horse who was allowed a soft lead last time. Danzay will need to do better and Holy Shambles is presumably an unlikely runner after finishing third at Kempton today.
Unsurprisngly with just three runners and such easily-digested form, the prices appear to be right.
Sorry I haven’t been making many posts in the last week or so. One of the team is off on an unprecedented three week holiday – the longest break he has taken in about 15 years with the company. We think he is actually owed about A YEAR in holiday at this point, he’s such a workaholic. He usually handles all the nitty gritty admin tasks and reports so I’ve found myself picking up the slack in his absence. I’ve also been doing more ante-post pricing than usual this week: the SkyBet Chase, Holloway’s Hurdle, Supreme Trial and Peter Marsh were all my productions.
All in all, time has been short for posting on this thread. In truth, I think I’ve only had one meeting of my own since my last post. (Aftertime alert) I wish I’d done a post for Ayr on Monday as we absolutely chopped it off with old Rosquero the star of the show. Would’ve got the placepot up if I’d played it.
Anyway, I’ve been at home today to take delivery of a new cooker (only a month late, well done AO.com!) so I have a bit of leisure time to look at my meeting for tomorrow – Chelmsford. Post to follow.
Absence noted
With the firm being over-run,can we expect 100% books on these A/P markets LS3
5.55 – C6 6f Handicap
Spare Parts is on such a roll at the moment that you’d be brave to oppose him. Notching up these wins in good times with impressive sectional performances too. Desert Fox probably ‘bounced’ last time and Lanjano is on a good mark but it’s hard to bet with such a red hot low-grader involved. Lanjano probably the e/w play.
6.30 – 1m Claimer
Interesting little race. Georgian Bay is best in a big field and has been looking rather sour lately so, despite his beefy official rating, it may be best to take him on. The same could be said about Tatlisu, who is not quite as good or enthusiastic as he used to be but has at least been running consistently lately. Enigmatic has plenty to find on official ratings with the other three but is at least mildly progressive and could enjoy a relatively easy lead if his rider takes the initiative here. Good old Loyalty is also quite solid – has been running well from poor draws recently and retains more enthusiasm than Tatlisu and Georgian Bay. No surprise to see his price collapsing overnight.
I’ve missed the boat on Loyalty but would take 3/1 or bigger in the morning. May also play Enigmatic for a small bet at some point – he’s by no means out of this.
7.00 – C6 1m 2f Handicap
Surrey Blaze justifiably short and should win this if repeating the form of his recent win.
7.30 – C4 1m 2f Handicap
Wimpole Hall has a good record at Chelmsford and it’s not surprising with his prominent-racing style just perfect for the track. He’s well-in under a penalty, especially with Nicola Currie aboard. Should take plenty of stopping.8.00 – 6f Novice Stakes
Again hard to take a view against the market. Reiffa did plenty of things wrong en route to winning on debut (also overcoming market weakness) and is obviously the horse with the most potential. Volatile seems to have gone the wrong way, Global Pass needs to calm down and the rest need to improve.
8.30 – C5 6f Fillies’ Handicap
Trappy little race. Pulsating did me a nice favour a few weeks ago at Kempton but is often asked to make ground from a long way behind, which was costly for her last time and never a good ploy at Chelmsford. Cool Breeze was a winner last time but is also perhaps a little vulnerable at this track. John Jenkins has had a poor 6 months but Karam Albari did win for him the other day and his Pretty Bubbles is very well-handicapped now. Interesting to see a move for the front-runner overnight (blue across the board at the time of writing). Similarly I don’t think you can write off prominent racer Lady Cristal, who is back down to a winning mark and goes well at tracks with pace biases (winner at Musselburgh). All in all, I think I’ll sit on my hands at the prices but won’t rule out backing Pulsating if he drifts to a price tomorrow, likewise the two frontrunners named.
9.00 – C6 1m 6f Handicap
Marshall Aid was backed off the boards last time and has found a weak race for the follow-up bid.
Enigmatic absolutely carved up overnight – 5/1 from 14/1! And I haven’t got a penny on.
FFS
I’m using up some holiday at the moment and am just taking it easy at home. I’m getting through plenty of reading.
I read the Kauto Star & Denman book (Jonathan Powell), which is a little dated now (released after Imperial Commander’s Gold Cup) but is still worthwhile as an aide-memoire. For the superfans, the book has some valuable background into the pair as young horses and the fine-tuning of their training schedules with Paul Nicholls. Plenty of lovely photos too. Powell’s own style deploys enough cliches to make you wince but he wisely lets connections tell the story for the most part. It’s also a minor bugbear that the book got to print with so many typos (how does that happen with a professional publisher?!) but yet it’s certainly one that will be staying on the display shelf for good.
I also just finished Vincent O’Brien – The Official Biography. I always feel a little ill-informed when racing experts talk about the great horses from before my time, so I do like to give myself a history lesson whenever possible. This ‘official’ biography was co-written by Vincent O’Brien’s wife Jacqueline, so perhaps lacks a little in objectivity. That is barely a faint criticism though – this is a beautiful book. Again there are dozens of gorgeous photos. The thing that strikes me most looking at pictures of Hatton’s Grace, Cottage Rake and even his best flat horses like El Gran Senor and The Minstrel is how much stronger the animals looked in those days. The sheer thickness of bone on Cottage Rake is seldom, if ever, seen on the racecourse nowadays.
I was born in 1991 so pretty much all of Vincent O’Brien’s career was ‘before my time’ in racing. What a staggering breadth of achievements he compiled under both codes, with stayers, sprinters, Classic winners, Grand National winners, handicap coups and international success. What a role he has played in shaping the breed, for better or worse, too. Again, allowing for editorial bias, you still get the impression that he was a fine individual too. Letters to wealthy owners are printed showing him insisting that bonuses are paid to his staff, for example. Perhaps an older reader would only gain the sort of superficial enjoyment I took from the Kauto Star/Denman book from this biography, but I think I would recommend it even more strongly as an educational piece for racing fans of my age. It’s well worth knowing and appreciating Vincent O’Brien’s accomplishments.
I might take a break from racing books for the time being. I’m about 400 pages into Pynchon’s Against The Day (a real slog but feels like it’ll all come together) and about to start a little book on Positive Discipline. I’m open to any recommendations though. The only other racing book on my ‘to read’ shelf at the moment is the one about Barney Curley’s mutli-horse gamble.
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