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Yeah Diamond King’s good enough if he’s ready and back to his best. Bit worried that Gordy is saying he has problems with his breathing, but he might be trying to put everyone off the scent.
More than happy to dodge the NYE shenanigans, just hope people behave themselves on the train home.
Decent day today. Monbeg Notorious got it done at 13/8, admittedly with a 15p R4 deduction. Miles To Memphis landed some nice e/w cash at 14s. Belle Helene and Tigris River were no good at all.
Onwards to Cheltenham. I had a good look at all races bar the bumper when I was in the office but I’m only really happy with my stance on two of them. I often seem to think more clearly at home so I’ll have another look now before putting up a post.
12.15 – 2m 4f Listed Novices’ Hurdle
Stamina will certainly be tested here. This could well be a good piece of form with Springtown Lake (140p in my ratings) a fair benchmark. I’d be looking to get after the fav – I was really impressed with Ainchea last time and he has so much scope to improve for this trip. Tikkanbar is also a likely improver on the heavy ground but isn’t straightforward and his iffy jumping will be tested here. Small preference for Ainchea at the prices.
12.50 – 3m 2f Handicap ChaseWhen I was pricing this up, I expected to end up betting Russe Blanc, but everyone else has had the same idea and there isn’t any real juice at 5/2. Vyta Du Roc a solid fav on reputation but is becoming rather quirky, ground wrong for Southfield/Lamb Or Cod and Ballymalin has a bit to prove now. No bet.
1.25 – 2m 5f G2 ‘Dipper’ Novices’ Chase
Yanworth has reportedly done plenty of remedial work on his jumping after his scratchy round at Newbury and gets a decent weights pull with Willoughby Court. Still, I think Willoughby’s ‘Neon Wolf’ form is working out so well, he is proven on deep ground and I think he’ll confirm the form. 7/4 would probably draw me out for a bet. Ballyandy was a scratchy jumper of hurdles and might come unstuck against championship class opponents over fences. I’ll probably save on Ami Desbois, who has done very well to win two chases at 2m so far (massive stayer), jumps well and has a wonderful scrappy attitude. Nothing too bullish though.
2.00 – 2m 5f G3 Handicap Chase
I’ve had a decent bet on Quite By Chance here. He shapes like he can win a decent race off this mark and is too big.
2.35 – 3m Handicap Hurdle
I think Red Rising is still well ahead of his mark, is proven on bad ground and won a very strong race last time. This feels like a stronger race than the one Arthur’s Gift won last time, Lovenormoney’s yard struggle to get their horses to string two good runs together and none of the others have outstanding claims. Red Rising for me.
3.10 – 2m 4f G2 ‘Relkeel’ Hurdle
Another ‘solved’ race in my opinion. All general prices look bang on the money.
3.45 – 2m Listed Bumper
Market looks about right here too with Volcano deservedly fav with that verdict over Acey Milan in the bank. Interesing to see what the market makes of Harry Fry’s new recruit.
Very keen on Russe Blanc, but gutted that the race cut up. Was looking forward to a price from him as well.
Bit of a disappointing day at Cheltenham from a personal perspective but results were kind for the bookies and you always look good as the trader when that happens!
I’ve got quite a long post I’d like to churn out about concentration and burnout but that may have to wait for later in the week.
Musselburgh thoughts to follow…
1.00 – 2m Novices’ Hurdle
A bit of a strange contest with plenty of flat refugees trying timber. A few seem fairly desperate attempts at reviving jaded horses (Emell in particular) but old Chookie Royale took to the task quite nicely on his first attempt the other week. I’m not at all sold on Heartasia as fav – shaped ok on hurdling debut but only won a couple of poor summer bumpers and must be vulnerable. I’m not the biggest fan of Blair Campbell and would prefer Derek Fox to be on Kelpies Myth, but he is still my pick. He won a decent bumper at the track back in March and shaped well behind two good horses last time. Hope to see him ridden positively, which is a massive edge at Muss.
1.30 – 2m 4f Novices’ Handicap ChaseObviously Mullaghmurphy Blue and Middlebrow are the two interesting ones, both progressive in chases around sharp tracks. With the win-shy Martiloo eating up some of the market, perhaps this calls for some dutching.
2.00 – 2m C4 Handicap Hurdle
Competitive stuff. Inclined to oppose recent winners Hey Bob and Rhythm Of Sound in such a deep contest for the grade. Care any serious market moves for King Of Aragon. Failing that, I thought Mitcd and Nedrum were the two to focus on. Mitcd put up some quite taking performances last season, particularly that stylish win over smashed-up switcher Icanmotor. Nendrum has the right style of racing for the track, likes going right-handed and ran well in a slightly better race last time. They’d be my two. I can see the case for Sleep In First with Ewart going well this season and all the backclass…but he is an unreliable and sulky horse and I think that isn’t factored into the price anywhere near well enough.
2.30 – 3m C4 Handicap Hurdle
Full Jack is going to be picked up by the wise guys but he isn’t an easy ride and finds it a bit nippy around here. Fav Randy Pike pretty obvious under the penalty IMO.
3.00 – 3m C3 Handicap Chase
Mixboy predictably smashed up after being put in at silly prices. Should be too classy for these.
3.30 – 2m Bumper
Paper Promise’s bumper second isn’t anything special so I think it may pay to take her on. Godolphin throwout Leostar and ex-Godolphin Detonate probably the two to focus on but can’t suggest a bet at the prices.
3.00 – 3m C3 Handicap Chase
Mixboy predictably smashed up after being put in at silly prices. Should be too classy for these.
I do hope so, LS.
Value Is EverythingIn the 1.00 I thought it might be worth taking a pot shot on The Road Home @ 16/1 on the basis that Derek Fox would have had the choice and the horse is clearly be expected to be better than shown on the one hurdles run at Wetherby, bit of an absence since and a drop in class.
Looks like a few others have had the same idea, GM. Fox not being on Kelpies Myth did unnerve me but I thought/hope it might be a reward for Campbell having a recent winner at the track.
In the 1.00 I thought it might be worth taking a pot shot on The Road Home @ 16/1 on the basis that Derek Fox would have had the choice and the horse is clearly be expected to be better than shown on the one hurdles run at Wetherby, bit of an absence since and a drop in class.
Nice one GM, nice one son, nice one GM, let’s have another one!
Value Is EverythingFailing that, I thought Mitcd and Nedrum were the two to focus on.
After being properly PWNED by GoldenMiller in the first race, I’ll call that redemption. 1-2
Thanks folks, good to know the old magic is still there despite abandoning form study to work on my National site. What swayed it was Kelpies Myth not being one Campbell always rides.
Haven’t worked out PWNED yet (?) but enjoy reading your threads LS, GT and VTC because I try to zip through the RUK cards every day – so hope you don’t mind if I put up the odd opinion. When I was doing a DLAP last season it was always nice to get feedback from people after putting in the hard work.
Mixboy, LS and GT! Have you named the litter of kittens yet :)
Was a great call GM. Drop in and post any time you like, especially if you put up a 16/1 winner every time.
OMG Mixboy. Nearly fell early and never looked that happy but thought we had a chance when Solar Impulse put his head in the air. Didn’t look like we’d got the photo watching live though! Went a bit mental when they called it.
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