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Also added Compton Park in the next at 17.5 on the machine. Horse is a bit of a screwball but that’s just too big.
Set for at least a small winning day with two to come.
That’s another meeting in the books, really pleased with my work there.
I lost with Hayward Field and Major Rowan but at least got in ahead of Hugh Taylor, nothing from Compton Park either. On the plus side, nice wins from Angel’s Acclaim (took 7.0) and Indian Raj (average price taken 5.2). ]
Really impressed with how AA came from behind (not easy at Newcastle) and Indian Raj’s win just hammers home what a NAP African Friend will be next time out.
I’m on Musselburgh duty tomorrow, thoughts to follow.
Musselburgh 11/08/17
One of my least favourite tracks as a neutral, with its faulty surface and pace bias making the place a bit of a laughing stock. Not a bad track for punting if you lean towards the handy types.
2.00 – 7f Nursery
Any number of potential improvers up in trip in their first handicap. Best not to get involved.
2.30 – 5f 2yo Conditions Race
I know Rumshak has a good rating but he looks plenty short enough to me. Falabelle is a plausible danger but Global Academy is probably going to be the one for me. I am a BIG fan of City Guest and this horse had the early toe to boot right away from that horse before tying up close home last time. Musselburgh really suits that type of horse.
I haven’t bet it yet but I feel like I’m 80/20 to do it in the morning.
3.00 – 1m C6 Handicap
Before seeing any prices, I liked Ralphy Boy and Relight My Fire but the market hasn’t missed them and there is no juice in either one. Can’t see myself playing.
3.30 – 7f C4 Handicap
For once the market hasn’t missed the admirable Alexandrakollontai, who is very hard to beat in this grade. The market usually hates her though, so I’ll take any 9/2 if she drifts.
4.00 – 1m 6f C2 Handicap
Very competitive. Tawdeaa is a real sourpuss nowadays, Codeshare isn’t good enough and Yorkidding probably won’t get the pace she likes to run at. For me this mainly concerns old rivals Sebastians Wish, Great Fighter and Kensington Star.
Great Fighter won when they last met at this track but he was possibly helped by the big field and strong pace negating the usual pace bias. Sebastians Wish has a suberb strike rate but seemed to be beaten fair and square that day. He has since picked up a weak race but effectively meets his rivals on harsher terms.
Kensington Star is the one for me. The small field situation will play to his strengths, he gets a small weights pull with Great Fighter and his recent soft ground flop can be ignored. I’ll try my luck and see if I can get 5/1 but will be happy to play at 9/2.
4.30 – C6 1m 4f Handicap
Goodness knows. Wonder what the market vibes will be like with Mambo Dancer. A race best left alone.
5.00 – C6 2m Handicap
Sadly missed the fancy prices but surely Golden Jeffrey is just going to laugh at these old low-grade staying handicaps? He won a bumper under a penalty after all! 10/3 is still a bet.
Chipping away at 6.5+ Alexandrakollontai now, also added Kensington Star (9/2) for a standard bet.
Also had a minimum stakes go on Global Academy (8.0) to go with last night’s Golden Jeffrey bet.
Probably won’t do anything else today.
GL if you’re having a go at Musselburgh.
A frustrating day until Golden Jeffrey came to the rescue. I had one 9/2 winner and one Evs loser at the other meetings and still have Monkeylou to come at Tipperary.
For the purpose of this thread (if there is one), it’s a small losing day. Lots of lessons learnt though.
1. Global Academy was a bad bet. Pure and simple. I rushed in on visual impression without paying proper attention to the speed figures, which said he had a huge amount to find.
2. Alexandrakollontai – not quite such a bad bet since she didn’t get any kind of run, but still a bit of a spew. Today hammered home that you need a prominent racer at Musselburgh.
3. I don’t chase losses but I do suffer from a touch of ‘Messiah syndrome’. When I have a good day, it feels like there is a great bet in every race. In hindsight, Kensington Star was guessy and I should have left it alone.
I’m not looking at a full meeting tomorrow – just had a few pickouts in individual races.
2.40 Redcar – Jessinamillion. Just had a good chunk at 11/1 as the rick won’t last.
1.40 Ascot – Euchen Glen. Bit of a tracker project, always thought he’d like this trip and has one of the best jocks in the race. Gone e/w fairly small at 14/1.
3.25 Ascot – Rake’s Progress 20/1 e/w. I’m sure I’ll get heat for putting this up after the price has gone but yeah. The numbers are behind it, he has a good jockey and the prominent style is always good on the round course.
3.40 Newmarket – Capla Temptress 8/1 and Mamba Noire 10/1 are the darts. I think the market has this totally wrong.
Pricewise just tipped Euchen Glen and Mamba Noir. Not sure whether to fistpump or cry.
A small winning day thanks to Euchen Glen.
Nothing for tomorrow – taking a day off. :)
Just realised I’ve got a must-use-today free bet.
Whacked it on Trais Fluors for the PJLM. Should be more pace with Thunder Snow and Taareef in there and hopefully Vincent Cheminaud has been warned about falling asleep in the saddle like he did last time.
No joy there but easy come easy go with these free bets.
I’m on Ripon duty tomorrow. I won’t have the speed figures until the morning.
2.00 – 6f Novice Auction Stakes
Not a race to be too bullish about. Any nibbles for slow Goresbridge breezer Laharna might spike my interest for a min bet with the yard going well.
2.30 – 1m Novice Auction Stakes
I’ve got nothing creative to offer here.
3.00 – 1m 6f C4 Handicap
West Drive should win as I rate the Slunovrat form highly but he has a few quirks and, since I’m trying to avoid playing too much at 5/1 or shorter in 8+ runner handicaps, I’ll probably let this one go unbacked.
3.30 – 1m C3 Handicap
A very bad favourite in Fujaira Bridge, whose early maiden form has not worked out. With the Crisford yard sputtering a little and the horse with plenty to prove after the gelding up, I’m looking elsewhere. Cullingworth is also a hard horse to warm up to – he should be a 1m 2f horse but pulls too hard…but he lacks the pace for good races at a mile.
There’s no rush since there won’t be any juice in the price until the morning but I’m very keen to play La Casa Tarifa here. She has been last on both of her latest starts but is best forgiven both – blew the start two back and shaped well on the wrong ground at the wrong trip after a few months off last time. SDS is booked and I fancy she’ll return to her early season form back in the right conditions. I’ll go in for a token bet at 15/2 now just in case the world gets the same idea, but will save the real firepower for the morning.
I’m tempted to save on Helovaplan, but I fear this tight track will make it hard to execute his hold-up style in this grade.
4.00 – 1m 4f C5 Handicap
Tewafeedj could get an easy enough lead again but I can’t see any standout bets in this race.
4.30 – 1m C6 Apprentice Handicap
Tom’s Anna is not a lost cause despite the basement mark. Form of penultimate start is quite strong in the context of a race like Has a good draw and one of the best jockeys in the race. Not the most reliable horse and has a few physical issues but I’ll still look to have a press or two at 17+ on the machine tomorrow.
I’ve played Stormin Tom (3.00) and La Casa Tarifa (3.30), shame about the NR no longer making the market.
All set to have a couple of presses at 25+ on Tom’s Anna too.
A good winning day thanks to Rachel Richardson’s exquisite ride on Stormin Tom. I wouldn’t give up on La Casa Tarifa either – feels like one to pop up at a big price later in the season.
I’ve got the good Chelmsford card tomorrow and have already had availed myself of the rickets with Yalta, Masham Star and Moolazim in singles, e/w doubles and an e/w trebles. Will post in-depth thoughts on the card later on.
15/08/17 – Chelmsford
A very good card at my local track. I haven’t decided whether I’ll pay a visit yet. Any TRFers going?
As I said in my previous post, I snaffled the rickety prices about the ones I liked in the three good races. I’ve only been compiling for six months, but I take the view that there is nothing wrong with taking overnight prices if you see them as great value. If you’ve priced a race up yourself and are acting from your own independent thoughts, then you deserve it. If you’re blindly backing everything that is blue on Oddschecker, then you deserve to be shut down. If a professional compiler betting to 145% overnight still manages to put a horse in 3x its true price then they deserve to lose.
Anyway.
5.40 – 5f Nursery
I always thought there was a race in Big Time Maybe but the numbers don’t really back me up. I’ll leave this race alone.
6.10 – 1m Nursery
A minefield. Le Gros Serpant one of a slew of potential improvers. Don’t let me bet on this race.
6.40 – 2m C5 3yo Handicap
This is more my ballpark. Last chance saloon for many of these with plenty of very doubtful stayers in the field. If Rosie Jessop is able to make it a test on Oxford Blu, she should be able to crack them but that horse is very limited. I got suckered into Noble Behest last time but he moved like a non-racehorse. Sadly can’t see a bet here.
7.10 – 1m C2 3yo Handicap
An exceptional race for the time of year on the all-weather. The Hamdan pair have obvious appeal but they haven’t been missed by the market. My main bet is already Masham Star, who has been shaping like a winner waiting to happen in competitive handicaps all year. Chelmsford is a front-runner’s track and he has the ideal draw to attack. I’m on at 10/1.
7.40 – 5f C2 3yo Handicap
A belting race. I’m already on Yalta at a juicy 10/1. His Pavillion Stakes run is different gravy compared to these AW regulars and he also has the perfect draw to dominate. Equimou is far too big at 33/1 for a horse who has run some gigantic speed figures and should do well as a stalker in a race chock full of pace. Good e/w saver material.
8.10 – 7f C3 3yo Handicap
Another very good race. Golden Goal has already been popular but I’m inclined to take Godolphin’s runner on. He was perfectly placed in a weaker race last time and the numbers suggest he was optimally paced. Apart from run-to-run progress, there might not be much more to come as he goes up in the weights in a deeper race.
Important Mission is a clear standout pick on the data with even his maiden run probably enough to have a major say here. He also ran well in the face of a near hopeless task when forced into the car park on the bend here last time under Georgia Cox. Ryan Moore takes over but stall 12 is a major problem.
I have already sided with Moolazim, who looked way overpriced at 10/1. Marco Botti’s charge laughed at the rock solid yardstick Glendun at Yarmouth two starts ago – extremely strong form. It’s easy to forgive his latest run, with an Argentinian pedigree never likely to suit soft ground. Excused that flop, he should resume progression. His inside draw will also be a big help.
8.40 – 1m 2f Fillies’ 3yo Maiden
Superioritycomplex is a not a fav I’d like to have my life on at 4/6 but is a Hard Spun switching to synthetics, which is an angle I like. Main danger Sugardrop has strong claims on form and should also be well suited to the surface but reportedly suffered a breathing problem on soft last time. A race best left alone all in all.
Just backed Plant Pot Power and Sea Shack in the 8.40 Kempton tomorrow, hoovering up the PP rickets.
I made PPP 11/4 and Sea Shack 5/1.
Taking 7/1 and 8/1.
Poor old Mashy, always finds one too good.
I’ve added Equimou at 65 on Betfair in this Chelmsford sprint-up. Too big.
A frustrating day on the punting front with only Masham Star providing small returns for the place and nothing from Moolazem or Yalta, doubles and trebles all losers.
I wonder if Yalta struggles on a turning track. There is still a nice prize in Masham Star.
Important Message and Mustashry evidently very nice horses who should go on to better things.
I was even more frustrated not to have a bean on Important Message, especially since I said he was worthy of respect even at 3/1. Why oh why did I leave it alone at 8/1 near the off? Lesson learnt: don’t be afraid to back phantom drifters if there is every reason to suspect they are trying. Also I am struck by the dilemma of the Chelmsford draw bias. Many online sources cite the sweeping bends and say it doesn’t exist – but wouldn’t logic dictate that a low draw on a turning track is some sort of benefit? Hmm…
Kempton is the venue for me tomorrow. Thoughts to follow.
6.10 Kempton – 7f Nursery
Another nursery. I doubt the ROI on my pickouts on this type of race would look very healthy. The speed figures scream the name of one horse and that is Global Exceed, whose mid-race move last time must have got the visual boys a little tumescent. The market hasn’t missed one with a touch of temperament (already blinkered) though.
So many of Richard Hannon’s juveniles have come good in nurseries this season but Shoyd will need to be well ahead of his mark to win from the car park draw. Catch The Pigeon and Mountain Peak are also likely improvers now handicapping but I see the embryonic market has missed neither one.
6.40 – 7f Fillies’ Novice Stakes
Guineas quotes have been flying around for Quargent so I had a little go at 5/2 – dogs really barking about this one. Cavatina gets a glowing write-up in Steve Taplin’s 2yo book and is probably going to be a solid play for the each-way snides.
7.10 – 6f Nursery
A tidy little nursery but the prices look about right – I can’t see any glorious bets there. I made Elizabeth Bennet about 2/1 back on artificial. I was a little shorter than the current market about Shaheen but I’m not bullish enough to bet given the volatility of 2yo form and the room for skullduggery in this kind of race.
7.40 – 7f 3yo Fillies’ Maiden
A very winnable race for Natheer (not mentioned in last year’s 2yo book) if she is any good. Not a betting race.
8.10 – 1m C5 3yo Handicap
Trappy stuff once again but more of a betting angle here with Mudallel probably a favourite to oppose. Just a week on from his first run after the gelding op, it’s worth remembering he was perfectly placed that day, albeit in a better race. With a clutch of unexposed ones waiting in the wings, there’s no juice in his price at all. I’m also not really sold on Dangerous Ends as he steps into a deeper race despite the 3/3 course record.
Scoones shaped really well after a break/gelding op on his final run for a handicap mark and is a likely improver though again we’ll have to wait for him to hit a betting price.
At a more tempting price, I think Mach One is interesting first time up for Archie Watson. Previously with Clive Cox (still with the same owners), he was sent off just 9/2 to beat some high 70s horses off level weights in a Classified event at Nottingham last time. He hasn’t been seen since, which may even be a positive as it suggests some legitimate physical excuse for that flop. Watson and Greatrex are both in good form right now, he has a nice draw in 4 and I’ve added him to the team at e/w at 16/1. I’ll try to add Scoones for small stakes if he hits a backable price tomorrow.
8.40 – 7f C4 Handicap
Another nice betting race. I think the market still has this totally wrong as Plant Pot Power and Sea Shack deserve to own much more of the market. I’ve backed both. Plant Pot Power has been unlucky in both recent starts at Chester, going too soon two runs ago and then caught in traffic last time. He goes well on this surface and is well-drawn to stalk and pounce.
Sea Shack was also too big at 8/1 on the strength of his early season form with his April and May runs very strong runs in the context of this race. His form did dip afterwards but Willie Knight is back in business (see Arab Moon) and the gelding op may have made the difference. Crowley is a positive booking.
Mazyoun is a rather smelly favourite – has quirks and needs plenty of luck given his wide draw and hold-up running style. There aren’t that many pace angles in here to provide the assist either. I’m not sold on Envisaging either – beaten in weaker races than this recently and seems priced on his rider rather than his ability.
9.10 – 1m 4f C6 Handicap
Another minefield. Wolfcatcherjack feels like the classic unsubtle Sir Mark Prescott handicap coup – three runs at shorter trips with a middle distance horse, then hiked in distance and wins four on the bounce. Ex Paul Cole yard switcher Tuolomne Meadows and notorious John Jenkins jobber Karam Albaari throw further spanners into the works. A race to watch without betting and roll your eyes at.
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